US embassy cable - 04BRUSSELS2610

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BRUSSELS 002610 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR EUR/ERA, EUR/UMB, EUR/CACEN 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/18/2009 
TAGS: PREL, UP, BO, MD, RS, EUN, USEU BRUSSELS 
SUBJECT: EU UPDATE ON GEORGIA, MOLDOVA, UKRAINE 
 
Classified By: USEU POLOFF LEE LITZENBERGER; REASON 1.5 (B,D) 
 
1.  (C)  Summary.  On June 17, EU High Rep Solana's advisor 
for the CIS, Kees Van Rij, reviewed developments in Georgia, 
Moldova and Ukraine with visiting Coordinator for Assistance 
to Europe and Eurasia Pascual.  Van Rij gave a readout of EU 
High Rep Solana's meeting the day before with Georgian PM 
Zhvania, who discussed Georgia's improved relations with 
Russia, its policy to win the "hearts and minds" of South 
Ossetians, next steps on Abkhazia, and how good ties to 
Azerbaijan, Armenia and Turkey may enable Georgia to help 
resolve regional tensions.  On Moldova, Van Rij provided an 
update on EU efforts with Moscow to relaunch pentagonal 
talks, relayed Moldovan concerns that Russia may try to push 
a "Kozak II" plan, and offered EU views on Moldova's proposed 
stability pact.  On Ukraine, Van Rij said the EU would take a 
tough line at its July 18 summit with Kuchma on elections and 
arms exports.  End Summary. 
 
Georgia: Russia, S. Ossetia, Abkhazia, N-K and Turkey 
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2.  (C)  On the margins of the June 16-17 Georgia Donors' 
Conference in Brussels (septel), visiting Coordinator for 
Assistance to Europe and Eurasia Pascual met with Council 
Secretariat Senior Policy Advisor Kees Van Rij, and his 
 
SIPDIS 
assistant, Carl Hartzell, to discuss Georgia, Molodova and 
Ukraine.  On Georgia, Van Rij said EU High Rep Solana's June 
16 meeting with Georgian PM Zhvania confirmed the EU's 
impression that Zhvania plays a key "balancing" role in the 
cabinet, and acts as a moderating influence on President 
Saakashvili.  Zhvania stressed the priority Georgia is 
placing on improving relations with Moscow, noting 
Saakashvili's frequent contact with Putin.  Zhvania also said 
his personal contact with Igor Ivanov is key to improved 
relations; Ivanov is much more important an interlocutor than 
Lavrov.  Georgia is working to "bridge the remaining gaps" 
with Russia on an agreement to close Russian bases in 
Georgia.  One idea that seems to have caught Moscow's 
attention is the Georgian offer to open a joint 
Georgian-Russian Counterterrorism Institute in Tbilisi as 
"compensation:"  the Institute would permit Russia to 
maintain a limited military advisory presence. 
 
3.  (C)  On South Ossetia, Zhvania told Solana that Georgia 
has no plans to use force; rather Saakashvili is pursuing a 
medium- to long-term "soft" strategy to "win the hearts and 
minds" of Ossetians.  Zhvania said Georgia was pleased that 
Moscow had rejected South Ossetia's request to join Russia. 
On Abkhazia, Zhvania told Solana that Georgia was working for 
the return of refugees to Galia, under UN/Russian guarantees. 
 Finally, Zhvania claimed he had good relations with Azeri 
President Aliyev; the latter is very interested in how 
Georgia resolved the Ajaran crisis without resort to 
violence.  Zhvania said he also has close ties to Armenian 
President Kocharian and intimated Georgia may seek a 
mediating role in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.  Zhvania 
also told Solana that Georgia is working with Ankara to help 
Armenia reopen its border with Turkey. 
 
Georgia:  EU Rule of Law Program 
---------------- 
4.  (C)  In response to a question from Ambassador Pascual, 
Van Rij clarified the recently-announced EU Rule of Law 
Program for Georgia, which is being run as a European 
Security and Defense Policy (ESDP) program, rather than as a 
traditional assistance program under the European Commission. 
 Van Rij explained that under ESDP, the EU can launch civil 
preparedness programs in cases designated to be "emergency" 
situations.  The EU maintains for this purpose lists of 
European experts in various civil preparedness areas.  In the 
case of Georgia, the EU's Political and Security Committee 
(PSC) designated the need to reform Georgia's law enforcement 
and judicial institutions an "emergency." 
 
5.  (C)  The EU is currently in the process of identifying 
about ten civilian experts who will be working out of 
ministries and police HQ in Tbilisi.  The program will be 
under the supervision of the EU's envoy to the South 
Caucasus, Heikki Talvitie, and will report to EU High Rep 
Solana.  Van Rij said the team would coordinate closely with 
U.S. advisors already working in this area in Georgia.  The 
EU designation was, in part, designed to send a clear 
political signal to the new Georgian government of EU 
commitment to support key reforms. (Comment.  Designating the 
Georgia Rule of Law program an ESDP activity also serves EU 
institutional goals:  the EU can now claim to have launched 
ESDP operations in the Balkans, Africa and the Caucasus.  End 
Comment.) 
 
Moldova: Russia, Stability Pact, and the EU Action Plan 
----------- 
6.  (C)  The EU continues to seek ways to relaunch the 
pentagonal political talks with Russia to move the 
Transnistria issue forward.  Van Rij said he had met with the 
resident Russian Charge in Brussels, and told him the EU was 
looking for a response to Irish PM Ahern's letter raising, 
inter alia, EU interest in the pentagonal talks (reftel). 
Van Rij said he also reminded the Russian that the EU wants 
to have an "agenda" with Moscow to discuss frozen conflicts, 
and the EU wants Russia to be "predictable" and not launch 
unilateral surprises like the Kozak plan.  Van Rij said the 
EU's PSC committee will have its monthly meeting with the 
Russians next week and will ask for Moscow's views on 
Voronin's stability pact proposal. 
 
7.  (C)  Van Rij said the Moldovans, who were in Brussels 
earlier in the week to finalize the EU-Moldova "Action Plan" 
under the EU's European Neighborhood Policy, had expressed 
concern that Russia would push a "Kozak II" plan in coming 
months.  The Moldovan reasoning, which Van Rij said he has 
not completely accepted, is that with elections coming up 
"everywhere" -- the U.S., Ukraine, Romania -- and with the 
changeover of the European Commissioners, Russia may try to 
press Voronin, just before Moldovan elections, to accept a 
new version of the Kozak plan. Van Rij speculated that 
Moldova's stability pact proposal may have been an effort to 
avert a Russian initiative; Van Rij also saw it as an attempt 
by Voronin to show Moldovans there was movement on 
Transnistria in the run up to elections.  Van Rij and 
Hartzell made clear that the only utility the EU sees in the 
stability pact proposal is as a vehicle to re-engage Russia 
and moving forward the political talks on Transnistria. 
 
Ukraine:  Tough talk at July summit? 
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8.  (C)  Van Rij and Pascual discussed the upcoming elections 
in Ukraine, and whether or not Kuchma would run.  Van Rij 
said the EU's next summit with Ukraine will be on July 8. 
The EU debated whether to hold the summit before or after 
elections, but decided to go ahead in order to be able to 
send a strong signal to Kuchma on the need for fair 
elections.  The EU was disappointed in the manipulation of 
local elections earlier this year, and Solana had earlier 
warned Kuchma not to mix up the issue of constitutional 
changes with the presidential elections, so the EU will take 
a tough line at the summit.  Van Rij said the EU will also 
speak frankly about non-proliferation concerns with Kuchma, 
in particular regarding Ukrainian arms sales to Africa and 
Burma. 
 
SCHNABEL