US embassy cable - 04YEREVAN1359

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 YEREVAN 001359 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
DEPT FOR EUR/CACEN, EUR/PGI, DRL 
DEPT PLEASE PASS USAID, MCC 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, AM 
SUBJECT: OPPOSITION ANNOUNCES END TO "HOT SPRING" 
CAMPAIGN AT LACKLUSTER RALLY 
 
1.  (U) Sensitive But Unclassified -- Please treat 
accordingly. 
 
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SUMMARY 
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2.  (SBU) Leaders of the Armenian opposition Justice 
bloc and National Accord Party officially announced 
June 16 the end of the much-touted "hot spring" anti- 
Kocharian campaign.  While some opposition leaders 
hinted during their "final rally--for now" on June 16 
that they remain uncompromising in their demand for 
Kocharian's resignation, most observers and sources 
within the opposition agree that the announcement was 
an admission of defeat.  It remains unclear from 
opposition statements whether or not opposition MPs 
(who have been boycotting parliament since March 2004) 
will return to parliament now that the rallies appear 
to have lost steam.  End summary. 
 
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OPPOSITION ENDS ITS SPRING CAMPAIGN 
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3. (U) During a lackluster June 16 rally, Justice bloc 
leaders announced that they would halt their "hot 
spring" anti-Kocharian campaign indefinitely.  Without 
much elaboration, they said that the "first stage" of 
their plan to oust Kocharian had not gone as planned 
and that they would think of "new methods of political 
struggle" for the future.  National Accord Party 
Chairman Artashes Geghamian added that the decision to 
halt opposition efforts took into consideration several 
"external factors" including developments in the 
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and the release of an 
upcoming Council of Europe report on Armenia.  In 
contrast to their earlier statements on the 
opposition's resolve to continue its boycott of 
parliament, opposition leaders' speeches were non- 
committal on the issue during the June 16 rally. 
 
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CITY PRE-APPROVES RALLY, RECEIVES UNEXPECTED REACTION 
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4. (SBU) Unlike most of the previous opposition rallies 
in downtown Yerevan this spring, the mayor's office 
approved the June 16 event as part of new regulations 
on political rallies and manifestations.  Opposition 
leaders, some of whom were the sharpest critics of the 
city's unwillingness to sanction earlier rallies, 
decried the Mayor's move as "insulting" and designed to 
put Kocharian and the GOAM in a more democratic, 
benevolent light and to defuse anti-Kocharian sentiment 
among opposition supporters.  One opposition newspaper 
opined that the rally's approval was timed closely to 
coincide with the visit of a Council of Europe fact- 
finding team. 
 
5. (SBU) Attendance at the June 16 rally was limited. 
Generous estimates put the number of protesters at 
2000.  Observers reported that the majority of 
attendees left the rally even before the culminating 
speech by People's Party Chairman Stepan Demirchian. 
(Note:  Some opposition members reported frustration 
that a televised soccer match was heavy competition for 
the event and drew the crowd away before Demirchian 
could take the podium.  End note.) 
 
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COMMENT 
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6. (SBU) While the new opposition alliance between 
Demirchian and Geghamian lasted through the spring 
series of rallies and protests, there is little 
evidence to suggest that they plan future collaboration 
on party platforms or as part of a unified front within 
parliament.  The decision of opposition MPs to return 
to parliament will be an important barometer of 
cohesion among opposition parties.  Geghamian has 
utilized his place in parliament to enhance his public 
profile in the past.  Now that opposition rallies have 
lost steam and faded from the front pages, it is 
possible that he, or other opposition MPs, will move 
back into parliament to keep their parties in the 
public eye.  End comment. 
ORDWAY