US embassy cable - 04FRANKFURT5178

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 FRANKFURT 005178 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, ECON, PINR, TBIO, GM 
SUBJECT: Euro-Elections/Regional: CDU Stays Strong, Greens 
Make Surprising Gains 
 
REF: FRANKFURT 4964 
 
1.  SUMMARY: In European elections in the four states of SW 
Germany, the CDU remained the leading party but failed (as 
expected) to reach its 1999 high-water mark, with a 
particularly disappointing performance in Hesse.  The SPD 
suffered dramatic losses throughout the region, including 
its worst results ever in Hesse and Baden-Wuerttemberg. 
The clear winners were the Greens, who outran the SPD in 
large cities including Frankfurt and Stuttgart.  In 
Freiburg, the Greens achieved their best result nationwide, 
outpolling all other parties with 37 percent.  The FDP 
recaptured some of its former voters.  Radical groups 
(Republikaner, NPD) achieved only marginal results.  END 
SUMMARY. 
 
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Baden-Wuerttemberg: SPD Suffers Historic Defeat 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
 
2.  In Baden-Wuerttemberg, the Social Democrats scored 20 
percent (down seven points), their worst results in the 
post-war era.  B-W party head and Federal Interior Ministry 
State Secretary Ute Vogt blamed national politics for the 
party's "bitter defeat."  B-W's Greens were clear winners 
with statewide results of 14 percent (up five points).  In 
Freiburg, the Greens outpolled everyone, scoring 37 
percent.  The party also did well in Stuttgart, Heidelberg, 
and Tuebingen, moving into second place after the CDU in 
each city with results between 22 and 29 percent.  The B-W 
FDP managed to improve its 1999 mark from just shy of five 
percent to seven percent.  Minister-President Erwin 
Teufel's Christian Democrats succeeded in defending their 
leading position with 47 percent (a loss of four points 
since their 1999 peak, but enough to secure a CDU absolute 
majority under Landtag election rules).  Teufel announced a 
special party convention for February 12, 2005 to determine 
the standard bearer for the 2006 state election and said he 
will have decided by then whether to run again for 
Minister-President or retire. 
 
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Hesse: Greens Beat SPD in Frankfurt 
----------------------------------- 
 
3.  In Hesse, the SPD lost ten points, dropping to an 
anemic 25 percent of the vote.  The CDU also fared below 
expectations with returns of 41 percent, a six-point drop 
from its 1999 total.  The party lost ground in its 
strongholds of southern Hesse, including Minister-President 
Roland Koch's hometown of Eschborn (near Frankfurt).  Media 
editorials blamed the CDU's relatively poor showing on 
Koch's governing style.  The FDP finished strongly with 
eight percent (up four points), with gains apparently 
coming at the expense of the CDU.  Greens posted 
extraordinary results, besting the SPD in Frankfurt (by 
more than five points) and Darmstadt and matching the SPD 
in other cities such as Wiesbaden (statewide, they polled 
15 percent, a gain of six points).  According to party 
contacts, the Greens' strong showing in the region was due 
to the popularity of standard-bearer Daniel Cohn-Bendit. 
Voter turnout in Frankfurt reached an all-time low (40 
percent). 
 
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Rheinland-Pfalz:  Christian Democrats Unexpectedly Strong 
--------------------------------------------- ------------ 
 
4.  Christian Democrats under Christoph Boehr polled 
surprisingly well in Rheinland-Pfalz with 47 percent of the 
vote, defying pre-election concerns over Boehr as a 
candidate (reftel).  The party's success prompted Boehr to 
announce his candidacy against Kurt Beck for Minister- 
President in 2006.  The FDP and Greens also fared well, 
improving their results by three and two points 
respectively.  As in other SW German states, the R-P Social 
Democrats suffered severe losses (almost ten points), 
dropping to 26 percent of the vote.  Minister-President 
Beck's personal popularity was unable to mitigate the SPD's 
poor showing, and Beck himself called the results "more 
than disappointing." 
 
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Saarland: Clear Victory for the CDU 
----------------------------------- 
 
5.  Contrary to results in Saarland's concurrent communal 
elections (septel), the CDU posted a clear victory in the 
state's European contests.  The party won 45 percent of the 
vote (a drop of under one point), with the SPD receiving 30 
percent (down 11 points), the Greens eight percent (up 
three points), and the FDP just under 5 percent (up 3 
points).  Minister-President Peter Mueller (CDU), who faces 
state elections in September, said the results were 
encouraging.  Social Democrat leader Heiko Maas (SPD) 
expressed disappointment with his party's poor showing, but 
pointed out that SPD results in Saarland were significantly 
better than the national average. 
 
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COMMENT 
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6.  Protest voters in SW Germany followed the national 
trend of punishing the SPD for a lagging economy and the 
sting of Agenda 2010 reforms while rewarding their Greens 
party coalition partners.  The Greens' decision to campaign 
on a pan-European platform led by popular standard-bearer 
Daniel Cohn-Bendit reaped substantial dividends.  The FPD 
picked up much of the CDU's lost ground, particularly in 
Hesse.  Radical anti-European parties including the 
Republikaner and the NPD (Nationaldemokratische Partei 
Deutschlands) failed to profit significantly from voter 
dissatisfaction but remained a force in local elections 
(septel).  END COMMENT. 
 
BODDE