US embassy cable - 04HALIFAX159

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 HALIFAX 000159 
 
SIPDIS 
 
FOR WHA/CAN 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, ECON, CA, Liberal Party, Elections, Conservative Party, NDP 
SUBJECT: FEDERAL ELECTION:  LIBERALS LIKELY TO RETAIN HOLD ON 
ATLANTIC CANADA 
 
REF: HALIFAX 101 
 
 
SUMMARY 
------- 
1.  Despite several close races, overall there appears to be 
little excitement surrounding the federal election campaign in 
Atlantic Canada:  voters appear to be headed toward re-electing 
a majority of Liberals in the region's 32 ridings.  Key factors 
are a general mistrust of the newly configured Conservative 
party and a relatively weak and ineffective New Democratic 
Party.  Regional political observers and pollsters say there 
will likely be few surprises or major changes in seat 
distribution in the Atlantic provinces.  END SUMMARY 
 
PREDICTIONS OF A LIBERAL WIN IN THE REGION 
------------------------------------------ 
2.  With less than two weeks to go in the federal election 
campaign, it appears that Atlantic Canadians will re-elect a 
majority of Liberal MPs in the region's 32 ridings.  This 
finding of a major regional polling company which conducted a 
survey in the first part of the campaign seems to have been 
borne out in subsequent weeks.  In releasing their results on 
June 8, the pollsters said that among Atlantic Canadian voters 
who are decided or leaning towards a particular party, the 
Liberals had 45 percent support, the Conservatives 27 percent 
and the New Democrats 19 percent.  Should this sentiment prevail 
on June 28, it will mean little change in the pre-election 
distribution of seats.  Before dissolution of Parliament the 
Liberals held 19 of the 32 seats, the Conservatives 8 and the 
NDP 4.  The remaining seat was held by an independent, a former 
Tory now running as a Liberal. 
 
THE LIBERALS VS. CONSERVATIVES: THE FEAR FACTOR 
------------------------------------------ 
3.  Election watchers are quick to point out that the Atlantic 
Liberals' wide lead over their rivals is not due to a ringing 
endorsement for "L'Equipe Martin/The Martin Team."  In fact, 
there is much the same anti-Liberal sentiment resonating here as 
elsewhere in the country.  Issues such as the sponsorship 
scandal, cuts to health care spending and the cost of the 
federal gun registry are all featuring prominently on the 
campaign trail here.  The difference is that Liberal candidates 
are being saved by the region's apparent reluctance to embrace 
leader Steven Harper and his new Conservative Party.  Atlantic 
Canadians are quick to point out that they are having a hard 
time believing that the new Conservative agenda is drastically 
different from Harper's old Alliance party platform, 
particularly after comments that Harper and his election team 
have made on economic development policy, health care and other 
social programs.  In New Brunswick, Canada's only officially 
bilingual province where francophones make up one-third of the 
population, Liberal candidates are also cashing in on the 
perception that the election of a Conservative government could 
spell the erosion if not the demise of federal bilingualism 
policy. 
 
4.  One of our Liberal contacts, who in March had seemed 
reasonably confident that a late-June election would bring Paul 
Martin back to power at the head of a majority government, told 
CG recently: "All I am sure of is that there will be a minority 
government; but I don't know who will be heading it." 
 
THE NDP - STILL SEARCHING FOR A BREAKTHROUGH 
------------------------------------------ 
5.  Another interesting aspect of the campaign is the fate of 
the New Democratic Party in Atlantic Canada.  With the polls 
confirming the third place finish for the NDP, it seems certain 
that the party will not be breaking any new ground in this 
campaign.  Despite the party's success on the provincial side in 
Nova Scotia, NDP strategists admit that they are still not well 
organized elsewhere in the region.  Also, commentators remark 
that new national leader Jack Layton still sees the four 
Atlantic provinces as unfamiliar territory, and has been largely 
unsuccessful in moving support over to the NDP.  One party MLA 
told CG that this election should have been spectacularly 
successful for the NDP: the Liberals were tainted by scandal and 
the Conservatives were "scary" -- ideal conditions for a protest 
vote for the NDP.  He bemoaned the party's inability to gain any 
traction in the region, and said he thought they would hold 
their existing seats but probably not gain any despite what 
should have been optimal conditions. 
 
ISSUES - TRADITIONAL THEMES, BUT A FEW SURPRISES 
------------------------------------------ 
6. Issues playing out in the campaign are still the perennial 
favorites such as such problems relating to the region's 
relatively weak economy, federal funding for health care, and 
money for roads and municipal infrastructure.  However, there 
have been two significant regional issues which have emerged 
onto the national stage: calls for an extension of Canada's 
200-mile limit as a means to curb illegal foreign fishing off 
Newfoundland-Labrador and new deals for Newfoundland-Labrador 
and Nova Scotia on revenue sharing from offshore oil and gas 
resources.  Unfortunately for the Liberals neither issue has 
played out particularly well for them.  On the fishing issue, 
Nova Scotia cabinet minister Geoff Regan and his Newfoundland 
counterpart John Efford have been vague in their explanations of 
just how a re-elected Martin government would handle fishery 
protection, leading to the perception that perhaps it will fall 
by the wayside after June 28.  On offshore revenues, Prime 
Minster Martin came under heavy criticism from Conservative 
candidates by being the last of the three national party leaders 
to propose ending the current fiscal regime which sees the 
federal government "claw back" the majority of the offshore 
revenue by reducing federal equalization payments.  Conservative 
leader Harper and NDP chief Layton both promised to revamp the 
revenue structure weeks before Mr. Martin finally announced his 
intention to do the same. 
 
NO SHORTAGE OF INTERESTING RACES 
------------------------------------------ 
7.  Interesting races continue to be the Kings-Hants riding in 
Nova Scotia where former Progressive Conservative MP Scott 
Brison made his much publicized jump to the Liberal camp.  In 
New Brunswick, Minister of State for Infrastructure Andy Scott 
is garnering much attention in his Fredericton riding as he is 
fighting to hold onto his seat in the face of tough Conservative 
opponent.  On Prince Edward Island, the main attraction there is 
the race in the Cardigan riding where Liberal incumbent Laurence 
MacAulay is starting to look like he might lose to his 
Conservative challenger, the former chief of staff to 
Conservative Premier Pat Binns. 
 
COMMENT:  A STATUS QUO RESULT? 
------------------------------------------ 
8.  But outside of these ridings and a handful of others where 
there is some tough trench warfare going on, there appears to be 
little excitement generated here as the campaign moves into the 
homestretch.  Several politicians with whom we have spoken note 
that voter apathy seems much higher this year than in the past; 
they fret that turnout will be low.  In any case, Atlantic 
Canadians appear to have made up their minds in favor of the 
status quo.  As one more cynical commentator remarked: if that's 
the case, then that also means that "the Liberals will still be 
sleazy, the Reform (Conservatives) will still sound like the 
lunatic fringe and the NDP will still be clueless."  If the 
region does vote for little or no change, it will be interesting 
to see if Atlantic Canadians might be voting against an 
anti-Liberal tide that could be flowing across other parts of 
the country.  END COMMENT 
 
 
HILL