US embassy cable - 04CARACAS1995

C O N F I D E N T I A L  CARACAS 001995 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
NSC FOR CBARTON 
USCINCSO ALSO FOR POLAD 
STATE PASS USAID FOR DCHA/OTI 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/15/2014 
TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, KDEM, VE 
SUBJECT: CHOOSING THE OPPOSITION'S UNIFIED CANDIDATE 
 
REF: CARACAS 1993 
 
Classified By: Abelardo A. Arias, Political Counselor, for Reasons 1.4( 
b) and (d). 
 
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Summary 
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1. (C) The opposition is focusing all efforts toward a united 
front for the August 15 recall referendum.  Opposition 
leaders told the Ambassador in early June that they will wait 
to announce a candidate until after the referendum because 
the referendum is a Chavez/anti-Chavez vote.  The opposition 
is developing strategies to decide who would be the 
opposition's unified candidate in a presidential election 30 
days after the referendum, and how that candidate would be 
chosen.  They are considering three mechanisms to choose the 
candidate: polling, primary, or caucus.  End summary. 
 
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Meet the Candidates 
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2. (C) When the GoV created the reparos process, there were 
splits within the opposition regarding the proper reaction. 
Primero Justica and Proyecto Venezuela voiced concerned about 
the validity of the reparos process, but then worked with the 
Democratic Coordinator (CD) in the reparos process.  After 
the success of the reparos, the opposition is united. 
Enrique Mendoza, Miranda state governor and strong opposition 
voice, supported the reparos process and has as a result 
improved his standing as a leading presidential candidate for 
the opposition.  AD leader Henry Ramos told the Ambassador on 
June 9 that he believes that the unified candidate will be 
Mendoza. 
 
3. (C) Henrique Salas Romer and Julio Borges are two other 
contenders to be the unified opposition candidate.  Salas's 
popularity and credibility suffered after he initially 
rejected the reparos process.  He has grudgingly backtracked 
and now is part of the united CD.  Salas, still a dissenting 
voice in the CD, told the Ambassador that although he was 
quoted as saying that the opposition's only focus now must be 
the referendum, he thinks that a unified candidate should be 
picked before August 15. Borges is still a prominent CD 
voice, but he is younger than the other contenders and is 
believed to be waiting for later opportunities. 
 
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Election/Selection Procedures 
----------------------------- 
 
4. (C) If the opposition recalls President Chavez in the 
August 15 referendum, they will have one more challenge - a 
presidential election in 30 days.  Statements from GoV 
officials, including the Supreme Court, indicate that Chavez 
will be able to run in this election although it has not been 
officially determined.  Whether Chavez can run or not, the 
opposition's prospects are best if they can choose one 
candidate to run against him, thus avoiding splitting 
opposition votes between several candidates.  The process to 
choose the opposition unified candidate will determine the 
credibility and legitimacy of the opposition's bid to win the 
presidential election.  While the CD is debating the process 
now, it will wait until after the referendum to choose a 
unified candidate.  As Mendoza told the Ambassador on June 9, 
the CD views the referendum as a vote for or against Chavez. 
Presenting a candidate now could risk political divisions 
within the CD.  In addition, the opposition will not gain any 
political advantage by presenting one candidate now.  There 
appears to be no candidate at the moment who will be able to 
mobilize all opposition parties for the referendum.  After 
the August 15 referendum, the opposition plans to use the 
following week to enact its selection procedure. 
 
5. (C) Fernando Martinez Mottola (protect), a businessman and 
member of the opposition "brain trust" who is leading CD 
efforts to choose a unified candidate, described three 
 
procedural options - polling, primary, or caucus, to poloff 
on June 9.  Polling would be a "poll of polls."  Four major 
polling companies in Venezuela would survey the country to 
find the top opposition candidate.  To address questions of 
legitimacy, the opposition would only use this strategy if 
one candidate clearly emerged in the next two months and if 
the results of the four polls provided a distinct candidate. 
Primaries would be a national vote to choose the opposition 
candidate.  The opposition could limit the voting to people 
who signed the petition for the recall referendum. However, 
to increase legitimacy, the opposition could allow all 
Venezuelans to vote for the opposition candidate (comparable 
to an American-style open primary).  A caucus process would 
invite 6,000 to 10,000 members of civil society to Caracas to 
select a candidate.  The participants would represent all 
sectors of society and be from all parts of Venezuela. 
 
6. (C) Martinez believes that the polling option will be 
suitable because one candidate will emerge over the next two 
months.  If a poll is not possible because there is no clear 
candidate, Martinez would support a primary because it will 
give credibility to the process and the operational capacity 
for voting should be available after the August 15 
referendum.  In all meetings with the Ambassador and poloffs, 
opposition leaders have highlighted the role of Sumate and 
its importance as a key coordinator in any referendum and 
election process.  See reftel on GoV efforts to harass Sumate 
and prosecute leadership on conspiracy charges. 
 
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Comment 
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7. (C) The opposition's first priority right now is 
mobilizing people for the August 15 recall referendum.  While 
the CD is planning for a possible presidential election, it 
is not publicly talking about plans.  For the unified 
candidate selection process, the biggest challenge for the 
opposition is time.  If the opposition does not choose a 
candidate until after August 15, then the opposition has 30 
days to choose a candidate and campaign for that candidate. 
Credibility and legitimacy of the selection process is 
another key concern.  Whatever option is chosen, the process 
must be deemed credible to motivate Venezuelans to support 
the unified opposition candidate. 
SHAPIRO 
 
 
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      2004CARACA01995 - CONFIDENTIAL