US embassy cable - 04HARARE1009

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 001009 
 
SIPDIS 
 
AF/S FOR LAROIAN, MRAYNOR 
NSC FOR AFRICA DIRECTOR D. TEITELBAUM 
LONDON FOR C. GURNEY 
PARIS FOR C. NEARY 
NAIROBI FOR T. PFLAUMER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/16/2009 
TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, ZI, MDC 
SUBJECT: MDC QUIETLY CULTIVATING DOMESTIC ALLIES 
 
REF: : A. HARARE 987 B. HARARE 958 C. HARARE 752 D. 
     HARARE 487 
 
Classified By: Political Officer Bianca Menendez under Section 1.5 d 
 
1. (C) SUMMARY:  Discussions with MDC officials reveal 
continued hope within the party for the success of mass 
action and a broad alliance of civic groups. Discouraged by 
unsuccessful efforts in court and in recent elections, the 
party leadership plans to press the ruling party through mass 
action (still without a time table) and a petition for 
electoral reform.  Party officials confirmed the MDC's recent 
absorption of a lesser party, said another was planned, and 
optimistically predicted the defection of some ruling party 
MPs and mid-level officials.  END SUMMARY. 
 
Mass Action and Popular Petition 
------------------------------------------ 
 
2. (C) Ghandi Mudzingwa, MDC Director of Presidential 
Affairs, on June 8 told poloffs that, as a result of party 
restructuring (ref C) the MDC was now organizationally and 
strategically focused on the 2005 elections -- though a final 
decision had not been made to participate or boycott those 
elections.  Under the overarching "elections directorate" 
Mudzingwa confirmed that he was now also responsible for 
creating a "broad alliance" with civil society organizations 
and the party.  As the MDC has not been able to organize 
freely, the main goal of the broad alliance would be to 
employ other autonomous like-minded organizations to mobilize 
their memberships to be more politically active.  Key 
partners in the alliance are the Zimbabwe Congress of Trade 
Unions (ZCTU), the National Constitutional Assembly (NCA), 
and the Zimbabwe Liberators' Platform (ZLP).  Other members 
include the Evangelical Fellowship of Zimbabwe (EFZ), the 
Zimbabwe Council of Churches (ZCC), the Catholic Commission 
for Justice and Peace (CCJP) and student groups.  Mudzingwa 
said the alliance had agreed on a "charter for change"  but 
that that agreement would not be announced publicly.  Initial 
activities would include a petition on electoral reform, 
prayer meetings, and organizing neighborhood crime watches. 
Mass action was the ultimate goal, but Mudzingwa did not 
suggest when the alliance would be ready for that. 
 
3. (C) Mudzingwa said MDC,s initial goal was to collect 
500,000 signatures from throughout the country on the 
electoral reform petition but that the goal had risen to as 
many as 7 million. He said he thought 7 million was 
ambitious. MDC will be seeking signatures in rural as well as 
urban areas to show that the majority of the country supports 
MDC. 
 
Boycott, Defections? 
------------------------- 
 
4. (C) T. William Bango, Personal Assistant to the MDC 
President, told poloffs June 10 that the courts and elections 
were not proving effective (ref A), so the party would rely 
more on the broad alliance and mass action, which would press 
MDC,s agenda by shutting down the country. He said the 
public was losing faith in elections, which should prompt 
more participation in mass action. He said that the majority 
of the country was young people for whom ZANU-PF,s message 
of land reform did not resonate. Instead, he said, the 
younger generation was interested in the jobs and lifestyles 
consistent with an industrialized, urban economy. 
 
5. (C) Bango said that, although the party had made no final 
decision, if the MDC was not successful in pressing for 
election reform, the party might stay away from the March 
2005 parliamentary elections because participation in the 
elections would legitimize them and diminish the MDC,s 
credibility. 
 
6. (C) Bango confirmed that, on June 3, Shakespeare Maya, 
President the National Alliance for Good Governance (NAGG, a 
tiny opposition party with no elected officials) dissolved 
his party and joined the MDC. Mudzingwa said that MP Wilson 
Kumbula of another small party, ZANU-Ndonga, which holds one 
seat in Parliament, had also committed his party to joining 
the MDC but would not make that announcement until after 
parliamentary elections had been formally called so as not to 
open his seat to a by-election. Bango also asserted that 22 
mid-level members of ZANU-PF, including some MPs, would be 
crossing the floor to MDC. He said that discussions with 
these members began in January and that their crossover could 
be announced in July. He said that these members were 
dissatisfied with ZANU-PF,s direction. 
 
Comment: 
------------ 
 
7.  (C) The impotence of its legal and election strategies 
fuels the opposition party,s continued toying with mass 
action notwithstanding the failure of last year,s effort. 
Our interlocutors, reports on mass action largely echo 
earlier reports (refs C, D), however, and suggest that 
purported action plans are no closer to achieving critical 
mass.  The petition idea is new and, if it gathers momentum, 
may pose tactical challenges to the ruling party,s modest 
charm offensive (ref B).  The reported absorption of NAGG and 
putative defection of ZANU-Ndonga would do little to affect 
the gross political imbalance of power here, and we are 
skeptical of Bango,s claim that any ZANU-PF members are 
prepared to cross the aisle. 
 
SULLIVAN