US embassy cable - 04DUBLIN911

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 DUBLIN 000911 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL, POGV, EUN 
SUBJECT: Local and European Elections in Ireland:  A 
        Shift to the Left As Ahern Takes A Beating 
 
REFERENCE:  Dublin 868 
 
1.  (SBU) Summary:  Irish PM Bertie Ahern will be 
recovering from a major political setback when he 
meets President Bush on June 26.  His Fianna Fail 
party turned in its worst performance since the 1920s 
in local and European Parliament (EP) elections June 
11.  The big winners were opposition parties Sinn 
Fein, Labour, and Fine Gael, all to the left of the 
current Fianna Fail - Progressive Democrats 
coalition.  Domestic issues appeared to carry the 
day: while anti-war Labour picked up support, the 
equally anti-war Greens lost ground, and we believe 
Sinn Fein's appeal is largely its ability to persuade 
voters it can deliver public services.  Ahern's 
government, looking towards 2007 general elections, 
faces a real battle to convince voters it has not 
lost touch with the people, and will likely realign 
itself to the center-left.  A refocusing on social 
issues might cause tensions, however, with the pro- 
enterprise Progressive Democrats.  A cabinet 
reshuffle is now likely to involve wholesale changes 
in the ministerial line-up.  End Summary. 
 
Ahern's Party Gets a Bloody Nose 
-------------------------------- 
 
2.  (SBU)  PM Ahern did not try to hide the extent of 
his disappointment when he met the press to answer 
questions relating to his party's hammering at the 
polls.  Fianna Fail's support fell by eight percent 
(from 38.9 to 31.9) from the last local elections in 
1999 - resulting in a loss of 84 council seats (from 
382 to 298).  On the European stage, support fell 
over nine percentage points, leaving the party with 
three MEP slots instead of six. 
 
Who Gains? 
---------- 
 
3.  (SBU)  On the surface, Sinn Fein is the big 
winner.  The party more than doubled its local 
authority representation from 21 seats to 54, and 
took its first MEP seat.  Analysts attribute this to 
Sinn Fein going into traditional Fianna Fail 
heartlands and promoting its anti-establishment 
platform to voters keen to punish the government for 
the poor provision of public services.  Sinn Fein 
appears to be widening its support base beyond inner 
city, working class communities to win seats in rural 
constituencies.  In the words of PM Ahern, "Sinn Fein 
won this election." 
 
4.   (SBU)  On the surface, Ahern is correct. 
However, it should be remembered that Sinn Fein was 
starting from a very low position.  The party only 
began to seriously look at electoral politics in the 
"South" in the late 1990s and as a result had few 
local authority seats outside Dublin and the Border 
counties prior to last week.  Emboff heard 
predictions from senior Irish figures that Sinn Fein 
would turn a large number of its new local authority 
seats into Dail (Irish parliament) seats at the next 
general election. 
 
Fine Gael: Another Big Winner 
----------------------------- 
 
5.   (SBU)  The largest - and most moderate - 
opposition party, Fine Gael confounded all 
commentators by staging an impressive rally from its 
disastrous showing in the 2002 general election. New 
party leader Enda Kenny has turned the tide, with 
Fine Gael topping Fianna Fail in the European 
Parliament with five seats, and only marginally 
behind Fianna Fail in the number of local authority 
seats held.  While media focus is on Sinn Fein's 
gains, the government should be equally uneasy over 
the resurrection of its traditional rival, Fine Gael. 
 
Labour: the Bridesmaid in Future Government? 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
6.  (SBU)  The Labour Party also gained ground, 
picking up 18 extra local authority seats (an 
increase from 83 to 101).  It is difficult to gauge 
whether the party made much political capital out of 
its opposition to the Iraq war and the June 26 visit 
of President Bush war.  Labour ran an equally strong 
platform accusing the government of broken promises 
on basic services. 
Labour and Fine Gael's improvement combine to present 
voters an emerging alternative to the present 
coalition government, when general elections are held 
in 2007. 
 
Greens and PDs: Also-Rans 
------------------------- 
 
7.  (SBU)  The Green Party lost both its MEP slots 
and barely increased its percentage vote in the local 
authority elections.  The party appears to be a spent 
force for now.  The Progressive Democrats did not 
field any EP candidates, and actually lost local 
authority seats (a fall from 25 to 19). 
 
Comment: Cabinet Shuffle and Bertie to Brussels? 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
 
8.   (SBU)  While not exactly blaming each other for the 
government's poor showing, Ahern and Deputy PM (and 
Progressive Democrat leader) Mary Harney provided very 
different explanations.  Ahern stated that the government 
must open its ears to public concerns, and hinted that 
reforms in policy areas such as transportation 
deregulation may be moderated.  In contrast, Deputy PM 
Harney strongly opined that the speed of reform should be 
increased.  The coalition may experience a bumpy ride for 
the rest of its term in office, as Ahern makes plans for 
an expected Cabinet shuffle this fall, and realignment to 
the left.  During a stormy Fianna Fail parliamentary party 
meeting on June 15, backbench TDs called for the removal 
of Finance Minister McCreevy, Justice Minister McDowell, 
Health Minister Martin, and Environment Minister Cullen. 
However, we suspect that ministers closer to retirement, 
such as Agriculture Minister Walsh and Defense Minister 
Smith, are more likely to depart in a shuffle. 
 
9.   (SBU)  Ahern's poor showing - and the apparent UK and 
Italian rejection of Belgian PM Verhofstadt -  has 
reignited rumors he may allow himself to be put forward as 
a compromise candidate for President of the European 
Commission.  Ahern is viewed by many as second in line for 
the plumb post.  If consensus on Vehofstadt's candidature 
is not forthcoming at European Council Summit June 17-18, 
pressure will grow on Ahern to put his name forward. 
Close colleagues of Ahern continue to say this is 
unlikely, however, and Ahern himself reassured his party 
again on June 25 that he will lead them into the 2007 
general elections. 
 
 
 
KENNY