US embassy cable - 01HARARE2012

C O N F I D E N T I A L HARARE 002012 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER 
LONDON FOR GURNEY 
PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS 
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL. 06/26/11 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, ZI 
SUBJECT: AJELLO IN HARARE TO DELIVER EU ULTIMATUM ON RULE OF LAW 
AND TO DISCUSS DRC 
 
REF: A) HARARE 1999  B) USEU BRUSSELS 3304 
 
CLASSIFIED BY CHARGE D'AFFAIRES AUBREY HOOKS.  REASONS: 1.5 
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(B) AND (D). 
 
1.  (U) AMBASSADOR HOOKS ATTENDED A DINNER ON JUNE 26 HOSTED BY 
HIS SWEDISH COUNTERPART, LENNARTH HJELMAKER, IN HONOR OF VISITING 
EU GREAT LAKES ENVOY ALDO AJELLO.  ALSO IN ATTENDANCE WERE UNDP 
RESIDENT REPRESENTATIVE VICTOR ANGELO AND THE CHIEFS OF MISSION 
FROM AUSTRALIA, DENMARK, NORWAY, AND CANADA, AS WELL AS AJELLO'S 
TWO ASSISTANTS. 
 
ZIMBABWE 
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2.  (C) AMBASSADOR HJELMAKER INFORMED THE GROUP THAT AJELLO AND HE 
HAD BEEN INSTRUCTED TO DELIVER TO THE GOZ A LETTER FROM THE EU 
GENERAL AFFAIRS COUNCIL EXPRESSING UNHAPPINESS OVER THE LACK OF 
PROGRESS IN THE ARTICLE 8 DIALOGUE (REFTELS).  THE SWEDISH 
AMBASSADOR UNDERSCORED THE FEELING OF DEEP FRUSTRATION FELT BY EU 
MINISTERS GATHERED IN BRUSSELS, AMONG WHOM THERE HAD BEEN COMPLETE 
UNANIMITY ON THE NEED TO SEND THE LETTER AND TO IMPOSE A TWO-MONTH 
DEADLINE FOR ACHIEVEMENT OF SATISFACTORY PROGRESS.  THE GOVERNMENT 
OF ZIMBABWE, HE SAID, MUST MEET THE CONDITIONS IN THE LETTER 
WITHIN TWO MONTHS OR THE EU WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY MOVE TO ARTICLE 
96.  HE NOTED THAT EU AMBASSADORS IN HARARE PREFER A MORE MEASURED 
APPROACH, BUT THE MINISTERS ARE DETERMINED TO TAKE A TOUGHER TACK. 
HJELMAKER AND AJELLO PLANNED TO PRESENT THE LETTER TO PRESIDENT 
MUGABE THE FOLLOWING DAY, ON JUNE 27. 
 
DRC 
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3.  (C) AJELLO REPORTED THAT HE HAD MET ON JUNE 25 WITH FM 
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MUDENGE, WHO FOCUSED ON DEVELOPMENTS IN THE DRC AND AVOIDED 
DISCUSSION OF ZIMBABWE'S INTERNAL SITUATION.  MUDENGE CRITICIZED 
THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY FOR LETTING DOWN THE DRC AND DISMISSED 
EFFORTS TO ARRANGE THE NATIONAL DIALOGUE, SAYING THEY WOULD NOT 
SUCCEED.  WHEN AJELLO INQUIRED ABOUT KETUMILE MASIRE'S RECENT 
VISIT, MUDENGE BURST OUT LAUGHING.  ASKED WHY HE WAS LAUGHING, 
MUDENGE CONTINUED GUFFAWING, BUT FINALLY COMPOSED HIMSELF ENOUGH 
TO COMMENT THAT MASIRE DOES NOT KNOW HOW TO MANAGE THE NATIONAL 
DIALOGUE, AND IT WOULD FAIL.  MUDENGE INSISTED THAT ZIMBABWE IS 
NOT REQUIRED TO WITHDRAW ITS TROOPS BECAUSE THEY WERE INVITED INTO 
THE DRC.  AJELLO HAD BEEN TOLD HE COULD MEET ON JUNE 26 WITH 
PRESIDENT MUGABE BUT WAS KEPT WAITING ALL DAY.  THE MUGABE MEETING 
WAS RESCHEDULED FOR THE MORNING OF JUNE 27. 
 
4.  (C) SHARING HIS OWN VIEWS ON THE DRC, AJELLO SAID KABILA AND 
HIS ALLIES ARE DELIBERATELY PUSHING NEGATIVE FORCES (RWANDAN EX- 
FAR/INTERAHAMWE) TO THE EAST.  HE REJECTED MUDENGE'S CONTENTION 
REGARDING THE WITHDRAWAL OF ZIMBABWEAN TROOPS, SAYING THE FOREIGN 
MINISTER SEEMED TO HAVE OVERLOOKED THE FACT THAT HIS GOVERNMENT 
SIGNED THE LUSAKA ACCORDS.  REGARDING THE NATIONAL DIALOGUE, THE EU 
ENVOY DECLARED THAT MASIRE IS GOING ABOUT IT THE WRONG WAY AND 
REFUSES TO ACCEPT ANY ADVICE.  HE LAMENTED THAT THE PROCESS COULD 
DRAG ON FOR YEARS.  TWO FUNDAMENTAL OBSTACLES TO THE NATIONAL 
DIALOGUE, ACCORDING TO AJELLO, ARE THAT THE REBELS WILL NOT ACCEPT 
KABILA AS PRESIDENT, AND KABILA WILL NOT COMMIT POLITICAL SUICIDE 
BY ENGAGING TOO SERIOUSLY. 
 
COMMENT 
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5.  (C) MUDENGE'S REPORTED CLAIM THAT ZIMBABWE IS NOT REQUIRED TO 
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WITHDRAW ITS TROOPS IS TROUBLING AND REFLECTS A DELIBERATE 
MISINTERPRETATION OF THE LUSAKA ACCORDS.  HIS REMARK, HOWEVER, IS 
CONSISTENT WITH RECENT COMMENTS WE HAVE HEARD FROM OTHER GOZ 
OFFICIALS, INCLUDING SENIOR DEFENSE FORCE LEADERS.  THEIR REMARKS 
SUGGEST A DETERMINATION TO LEAVE BEHIND AT LEAST A SMALL MILITARY 
CONTINGENT TO PROTECT ZIMBABWEAN ECONOMIC INTERESTS, IRRESPECTIVE 
OF THE WITHDRAWAL OF THE OTHER ALLIED FORCES OR THE LANGUAGE 
CONTAINED IN THE LUSAKA ACCORDS.  ZIMBABWE IS ALSO RELUCTANT TO 
GIVE UP ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE NEW KABILA REGIME, SOMETHING ITS 
TROOP PRESENCE ENSURES.  THAT SAID, WE REMAIN CONVINCED THAT THE 
GOZ HOPES TO BRING HOME MOST OF ITS TROOPS PRIOR TO THE 
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION EXPECTED IN EARLY 2002.  AJELLO WAS 
CONTEMPTUOUS OF MASIRE'S APPROACH TO THE NATIONAL DIALOGUE AND HAD 
NO EXPECTATION THAT HIS EFFORTS WOULD BEAR FRUIT. 
 
HOOKS 
 
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