US embassy cable - 04BRATISLAVA587

UNCLAS BRATISLAVA 000587 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, LO 
SUBJECT: COALITION WINS BIG IN EP ELECTIONS AMIDST LOW TURNOUT 
 
 
1. SUMMARY. SLOVAKIA'S RULING COALITION WON A SURPRISING EIGHT OF 
FOURTEEN EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT SEATS. SLOVAKIA HAD THE LOWEST VOTER 
TURNOUT OF LESS THAN SEVENTEEN PERCENT. WIDESPREAD SKEPTICISM 
RESULTED IN VOTER APATHY AS MOST SLOVAKIS CONSIDERED THEIR 
COUNTRY'S INFLUENCE IN THE EP AS MINIMAL. MANY VOTERS FELT THAT 
THEY LACKED USEFUL INFORMATION ABOUT THE ELECTIONS AND THE EP. 
END SUMMARY. 
 
    2. SLOVAKIA ELECTED FIVE PARTIES TO THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT (EP) 
ON JUNE 13. THE RULING COALITION SURPRISINGLY WON EIGHT OF THE 
FOURTEEN SEATS.  SLOVAK DEMOCRATIC AND CHRISTIAN UNION (SDKU) 
PLACED FIRST WITH 17.1 PERCENT OF THE VOTE (3 SEATS), CHRISTIAN 
DEMOCRATIC MOVEMENT (KDH) WON 16.2 PERCENT (3 SEATS) AND THE 
HUNGARIAN COALITION (SMK) 13.2 PERCENT (2 SEATS). THE JUNIOR 
COALITION PARTY, ALLIANCE OF A NEW CITIZEN (ANO) DID NOT MAKE IT 
OVER THE FIVE PERCENT THRESHOLD (4.7 PERCENT), DESPITE RUNNING A 
FLASHY CAMPAIGN. THE OPPOSITION PARTY SMER, A LONG-TIME FAVORITE, 
AND PEOPLE'S UNION-MOVEMENT FOR A DEMOCRATIC SLOVAKIA (LU-HZDS) 
WON 17.04 AND 16.9 PERCENT RESPECTIVELY, GARNERING THREE SEATS 
EACH.  NEITHER THE COMMUNIST PARTY NOR THE NATIONALIST SLOVAK 
NATIONAL PARTY WON SEATS WITH 4.65 AND 4.55 PERCENT OF THE VOTE. 
 
3. ALL EIGHT MEPS ELECTED FROM THE COALITION PARTIES WILL JOIN 
THE CENTER-RIGHT EUROPEAN PEOPLE PARTY-ED (EPP-ED) MILAN GALA, 
ZITA PLESTINSKA, PETER STASTNY (SDKU); JAN HUDACKY, MIROSLAV 
MIKOLASIK, ANNA ZABORSKA (KDH);  EDIT BAUER, ARPAD DUKA-ZOLYOMI 
(SMK).  SMER'S MONIKA BENOVA, MILOS KOTEREC AND VLADIMIR MANKA 
WILL JOIN THE EUROPEAN SOCIALIST PARTY (PES).  PETER BACO, SERGEJ 
KOZLIK AND IRENA BELOHORSKA OF LU-HZDS WILL BE AMONG "OTHERS" AS 
THEIR PARTY DOES NOT HAVE ANY PARTNER IN THE INTERNATIONAL PARTY 
ORGANIZATIONS. 
 
4. ELECTION TURNOUT WAS EXTREMELY LOW AT 16.96 PERCENT, THE 
LOWEST IN EUROPE. VOTER APATHY, LACK OF COMPREHENSIBLE 
INFORMATION ABOUT THE EP FROM THE MEDIA AND THE POLITICAL 
PARTIES, AND A WIDESPREAD FEELING THAT FOURTEEN SLOVAKS CANNOT 
MAKE A DIFFERENCE IN A BODY OF 732 MEPS CONTRIBUTED TO THE LOW 
TURNOUT. 
 
    COMMENT 
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5. ONCE AGAIN, POLLING PROVED TO BE AN UNRELIABLE PREDICTOR IN 
THESE ELECTIONS.  PARTIES WITH EXISTING AND STABLE REGIONAL 
STRUCTURES AND A LOYAL VOTER CADRE, SUCH AS KDH, LU-HZDS, AND SMK 
BENEFITED FROM THE LOW TURNOUT. SMER'S SUPPORTERS, HOWEVER, ARE 
LESS PREDICTABLE WITH LESS OF A VOTER TRACK RECORD.  PRE-ELECTION 
POLLING SUGGESTED THAT SMER WOULD GARNER ABOUT 20-25 PERCENT OF 
THE VOTES. PM DZURINDA'S SDKU IS THE REAL WINNER. AFTER FAILING 
TO TURN-OUT IN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS AND POLLING IN THE SINGLE 
DIGITS FOR THE PAST YEAR, SDKU VOTERS PULLED OUT A VICTORY DUE TO 
LOW VOTER PARTICIPATION. 
WEISER 
 
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