US embassy cable - 04BRUSSELS2518

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BRUSSELS 002518 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT. FOR EUR/ERA 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/14/2104 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, PINR, EUN, USEU BRUSSELS 
SUBJECT: EUROPEAN ELECTIONS: NEGATIVE ON EUROPE, NOT ON U.S. 
 
REF: A. A) BRUSSELS 1736 
 
     B. B) BRUSSELS 2107 
     C. C) BRUSSELS 2196 
     D. D) BRUSSELS 2360 
 
Classified By: USEU POLOFF TODD HUIZINGA, FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D) 
 
1. (U) SUMMARY:  The provisional results of the June 10-13 
European elections largely confirm the status quo: in a 
European Parliament (EP) that remains a complex amalgam of 
parties, nationalities and personalities, the Christian 
Democrats and Conservatives group (EPP-ED) keeps its 
plurality.  The Socialists and Social Democrats (PES) remain 
the second largest EP group.  The Liberal Democrats (ELDR) -- 
who may form the nucleus of a new "centrist" group -- stay in 
third place, with the Greens in fourth and the far left in 
fifth.  Relations with the U.S. (i.e., Iraq) played a role, 
but the vote was mainly about Europe and sitting governments. 
 Voters delivered a largely negative report card on 
governments in their respective member states, and the 
lowest-ever turnout of 45.5 percent revealed, at least in 
part, apathy toward the EU.  END SUMMARY. 
 
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CHRISTIAN DEMOCRATS ON TOP 
-------------------------- 
 
2. (U) Based on party-group membership in the previous term, 
provisional results show the EPP-ED with 275 out of a total 
of 732 seats (37.6 percent).  The PES has 200 seats (27.3 
percent), the ELDR 66 (9.0 percent), the Greens 41 (5.6 
percent), and the far-left EUL/NGL 36 (5.0 percent).  These 
numbers will change considerably as negotiations on party 
group membership proceed, but we do not expect the changes to 
affect the balance among the largest party groups. 
 
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NEW POSSIBILITIES ON CENTER AND FAR-RIGHT 
----------------------------------------- 
 
3. (U) The two greatest possibilities for significant change 
in the party-group make-up of the EP reside on the center and 
the far right of the political spectrum.  In the center, if 
the ELDR forms a new "EU-federalist" group with the 
center-left Olive Tree Coalition of European Commission 
President Romano Prodi and the French Union for French 
Democracy (ref D) -- as ELDR leader Graham Watson reiterated 
publicly on election night -- the membership of that group 
could increase by up to 32 seats.  With between 95 and 100 
seats, this enlarged ELDR would be far and away the strongest 
EP "third force."  It would not be enough for either a 
center-right majority with the EPP-ED or a center-left 
majority with the PES, but it would be an important, often 
indispensable element nevertheless in getting over the 50 
percent hurdle.  On the far right, groups such as the French 
Front National, the Belgian Vlaams Blok and others, currently 
non-aligned, may try to come together to form a party group. 
If they succeed, the organized far right in the EP could have 
numbers comparable to the Greens and the far left. 
 
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A BAD REPORT CARD FOR EU AND MEMBER STATES 
------------------------------------------ 
 
4. (U) As far as can be generalized in analyzing what were in 
effect 25 distinct member-state elections, the vote was 
principally about domestic concerns such as unemployment and 
health care.  It was a negative report card for sitting 
member-state governments primarily, and the EU itself 
secondarily.  With the exception of Spain and Greece, in 
which recently elected governing parties did well, initial 
tallies were generally dim for governing parties in the 
member states.  The results in Germany and France especially 
were disastrous for the incumbent governments, with the 
Social Democratic Party (SPD) receiving only about 22 percent 
of the vote in Germany and French President Chirac's party 
obtaining 16 to 17 percent.  In the UK, the Labour party 
received about 22 percent compared to approximately 27 
percent for the Conservatives.  The euroskeptic UK 
Independence Party (UKIP) was spectacularly successful, with 
about 17 percent of the vote.  In Italy, the Olive Tree 
Coalition of European Commission President Romano Prodi 
appears to have won 27 seats, while Prime Minister Silvio 
Berlusconi's Forza Italia won 17 seats. 
 
5. (U) The vote also revealed continuing voter apathy toward 
the EP, and significant dissatisfaction with the EU.  This 
was reflected above all in the record low turnout of about 
45.5 percent.  Especially striking was the extremely low 
figure of around 29 percent voter participation in the ten 
new member states.  Euroskeptic parties did especially well 
in the UK (see para 4 above), Poland and the Czech Republic. 
In the Netherlands and Austria voters rewarded candidates 
running on anti-corruption platforms. 
 
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IRAQ PLAYS ROLE, BUT VOTE EUROPE-CENTERED 
----------------------------------------- 
 
6. (SBU) Relations with the United States, i.e. Iraq, did 
play a role in the vote, but not as great a role as domestic 
and European concerns.  Prodi's Olive Tree Coalition, which 
ran on a peace platform, did well in Italy.  In the UK, 
Labour's poor showing was certainly connected to the Blair 
government's support of the U.S. in Iraq, but the Liberal 
Democrats, who made their opposition to the Iraq war the 
centerpiece of their campaign, received an unimpressive 15 
percent of the vote.  Comparing this to the strong showing of 
the UKIP indicates that the vote in Great Britain was more 
anti-EU than a protest of UK involvement in Iraq.  The 
German, French and Belgian governing parties all did very 
poorly, failing to profit from their opposition to U.S. Iraq 
policy. 
 
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COMMENT: EP KEEPS ITS MANY FACES 
-------------------------------- 
 
6. (C) Much could happen as party group negotiations 
progress, but the bottom line is that the balance of power in 
the EP will remain approximately what it was in the last 
term.  The EPP-ED is the largest group, but still holds less 
than 40 percent of the seats.  On the left, the PES, Greens 
and the far left do not form a majority.  This means that an 
enlarged ELDR, if it comes into being, will be a key element 
in forming majorities.  Unfortunately, the ELDR often opposes 
the U.S. on key foreign policy issues such as Iraq and 
aspects of the war on terrorism such as detaining enemy 
combatants in Guantanamo and sharing passenger name record 
data with the U.S.  In EP sense-of-Congress resolutions, the 
EP's preference for the broadest possible consensus -- and 
the resulting tendency to include potshots at U.S. policy 
which are popular with the center and the left-- will 
continue.  All in all, the EP will remain a complex mix, 
leaning toward opposition to U.S. policy in many areas, but 
differing from issue to issue, party group to party group, 
and MEP to MEP.  END COMMENT. 
 
SCHNABEL