US embassy cable - 04THEHAGUE1454

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 THE HAGUE 001454 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: MOPS, MARR, PREL, PGOV, IZ, NL 
SUBJECT: DUTCH CABINET APPROVES EXTENSION IN MULTINATIONAL 
FORCE FOR EIGHT MONTHS 
 
REF: The Hague 969 
 
1.  Summary: On June 11, the Dutch cabinet decided to extend 
Dutch participation in the multinational Force in Iraq for 
eight months, i.e., until mid-March 2005, so that the Dutch 
troops in the Al Muthanna province can help secure stability 
during the transition period and the elections.  As expected 
and reported, the cabinet announced that the troops will 
leave thereafter.  According to Prime Minister Balkenende, 
adoption of UNSC resolution 1546 was crucial to the 
cabinet's decisionmaking, as were the requests from the 
Prime Minister of the Iraqi interim government, the UK, the 
UN and the U.S.  The cabinet is well aware of the risks to 
which the troops are exposed, and has taken appropriate 
security measures.  It nonetheless decided to extend given 
the mission's overriding significance.  An ample majority of 
the parliament is expected to support the cabinet's 
decision.  The parliament will debate it within the next two 
weeks.  New troops are to leave shortly for Kuwait to 
acclimatize so that they can relieve the present troops by 
mid-July.  End summary. 
 
2.  In a June 11 letter to parliament, the cabinet explained 
that it had chosen for an extension of eight months so that 
Dutch troops can continue to make a contribution to Iraq's 
stability until and after the elections in January 2005  and 
the formation of a new government.  Together with the 
planned transfer of sovereignty on June 30, it viewed  these 
elections as "a crucial step towards a safe, stable and 
democratic Iraq."  It opined that "a safe and stable 
environment is essential to the political and economic 
reconstruction of Iraq, in particular with an eye to the 
transfer of sovereignty and holding elections so that the 
Iraqis can determine their own future in freedom." 
 
3.  Foreign Minister Bot noted that "in the past year we 
have been able to show that it is possible to establish 
stability, and we should now finish the job."  After the 
elections and the formation of a government, it will be time 
to leave, he added.   He did not anticipate that the 
Netherlands would be asked to find a country to take over 
from the Dutch in Al Muthanna. 
 
4.  Defying provocative questions inviting him to criticize 
U.S. policy, Bot countered that "the relative tranquility of 
the past weeks is the clearest evidence that we are on the 
right track."  He said, "The picture is different now that 
the international community has spoken through a new UNSC 
resolution," which he said signified a major step forward. 
People in Iraq are seeing the end and are waiting to see 
what is going to happen.  Bot referred to European pressure 
on the U.S. to accept a resolution that included some 
elements that were hard for the U.S. to accept.  He himself 
had lobbied hard in past weeks for such a resolution.   He 
was pleased with the ultimate text, which "met all of our 
wishes."  With this resolution it had become easier for the 
cabinet to approve the extension. 
 
5.  Defense Minister Kamp acknowledged that the Dutch troops 
face a higher risk of being attacked in the run-up to the 
elections "but they are prepared for it."  For their 
security the troops can continue to rely on assistance from 
Cougar and Apache helicopters, as well as observation and 
detection equipment.  And in case of an emergency, they can 
request air support from the air forces of the multinational 
force.  Apart from rising tension in the months preceding 
the elections, Kamp referred to the risk of Iraqi insurgents 
who might want to frustrate the reconstruction effort by 
turning against the Dutch troops. 
 
6.  Balkenende, Bot and Kamp expressed hope that the cabinet 
decision would be widely supported both in parliament and 
society, also for the sake of the Dutch troops in Iraq so 
that they know that an ample majority of the Dutch people 
supports their work.  A majority of the coalition parties 
and several smaller opposition parties have already 
expressed support.  Only the main opposition labor (PvdA) 
party is still dragging its feet.  Although it has welcomed 
the new UNSC resolution as a major step in the right 
direction, it is still questioning the future role of the 
UN, the intended internationalization of the multinational 
force, as well as the degree to which the U.S. is prepared 
to step back in Iraq.  PvdA is also concerned about the 
security risks and is not yet convinced that the presence of 
Dutch troops will enhance stability. 
 
7.  Foreign Minister Bot warned that the PvdA should not ask 
for the impossible, such as the demand that Arab nations 
participate in the multinational force.  That will not 
happen, Bot retorted but those countries are providing 
assistance to the reconstruction effort in other ways.   Bot 
was confident, however, that the PvdA would ultimately 
consent to the proposed extension, if only because it would 
hurt its position with its voters if it did not.  The 
cabinet actually went out of its way to keep the PvdA on 
board because wide support from all major parties is 
considered crucial to retain public support for the Dutch 
military involvement in Iraq. 
 
MINIMIZED CONSIDERED 
Sobel