US embassy cable - 04MADRID2215

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MADRID 002215 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/14/2014 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, PTER, SP, European Union, Popular Party 
SUBJECT: AZNAR KEPT UNDER WRAPS IN EU PARLIAMENT ELECTION 
CAMPAIGN CENTERED ON IRAQ, US TIES 
 
 
Classified By: Polcouns Kathleen Fitzpatrick, per 1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
Summary 
 
1.  (C) Jose Maria Aznar did not participate in the Popular 
Party's campaign for the June 13 EU parliamentary election. 
With the Socialists making the war in Iraq and distancing 
Spanish foreign policy from the US their central campaign 
issues, Popular Party leaders decided that Aznar was too 
radioactive to help in the campaign.   Aznar insiders tell us 
that Aznar recognized this as well, but is confident time 
will ultimately vindicate his policies.  Many in the PP 
regarded Aznar's May visit to the US, which included a 
private meeting with President Bush, as inopportune.   They 
believe the visit give the Socialists ammunition in their 
efforts to portray the PP as a tool of the US.  Following his 
US visit, Aznar avoided the media and focused on presiding 
over the PP think tank (FAES) and learning English in 
preparation for speaking engagements.  On June 13, the 
Popular Party succeeded in beating expectations and came 
within two points of the Socialists in the EU election.  End 
Summary. 
 
Aznar Radioactive 
 
2.  (C) Aznar's longtime associate and former State Secretary 
for Communication Alfredo Timmermans told us recently that 
Aznar's decision to play no public role in the June 13 EU 
parliament election campaign was his choice, but that it also 
reflected the preference of PP leaders.   The Socialists 
(PSOE) sought a repeat of their March 14 surprise election 
victory and played up themes that had worked for them, 
notably opposition to the Iraq war and Aznar's close 
relations with the US.    Timmermans said that Aznar was 
fully aware that he was politically radioactive and, as a 
result, kept a low profile.  His only public activities were 
to appear at signings of new his book recounting his years in 
office.   (Timmermans noted sales are going well and the book 
is now in its second printing.) 
 
"Photo of the Azores" 
 
3.  (C)  A Socialist refrain from the EU parliament election 
campaign was the need to correct "the photo of the Azores." 
To them, the March 2003 Azores summit stands for committing 
Spain to an Iraq conflict that the Spanish public wanted no 
part of and for allying with the US instead of France and 
Germany. 
 
4.  (C)  For this reason, there was unease in the PP when 
Aznar visited the US in May 2004, only weeks after stepping 
down from office.   While PP leaders stated that Aznar had a 
right to travel where he wished, many, including Aznar 
loyalists, felt that given the EU election Aznar should have 
postponed the trip until after June 13.   Timmermans told us 
that many in the PP wanted Aznar to "stay home and say 
nothing."    Timmermans said Aznar understood that he is, for 
the present, a divisive figure but that he is confident time 
will vindicate his policies toward Iraq and the US. 
Timmermans said Aznar was buoyed by the warm reception he 
received in the US and, in particular, by his meeting with 
President Bush.   Timmermans contrasted this warmth with the 
reticence Aznar has encountered from some in the Popular 
Party since March 14. 
 
Aznar's Messages to the US 
 
5.  (C) Timmermans noted that Aznar had expressed concern to 
President Bush that the March 11 Madrid terrorist attacks had 
sent a message to terrorists that they can influence 
elections.   Aznar urged vigilance in advance of US 
elections.   Aznar believes al Qaeda inspired terrorists 
might also target countries like Italy where public opinion 
is vulnerable.     Timmermans said Aznar believes the US has 
to brace for continued bad news from Iraq and came away with 
the impression that some US observers may be too optimistic 
about the medium term outlook.  Timmermans said an election 
defeat by President Bush in November would be read, rightly 
or wrongly, in Spain as a defeat for the Popular Party and 
would give the Socialists a boost. 
 
6.  (C) Timmermans said the PP, Aznar included, continues to 
be "astonished" by the chain of events from the March 11 
terrorist attacks to surprise election defeat on March 14. 
Many Popular Party members, Timmermans said, blame Aznar's 
Iraq policy for the defeat and believe Aznar gambled with the 
party's future on Iraq and lost.    Like other Spaniards (80 
percent according to some polls), most PP members were not 
sorry to see the Spanish troops come home, Timmermans said. 
 
7.  (C) Timmermans underlined that Aznar remains unyielding 
in his beliefs.  Aznar will continue to support the Iraq war 
and say publicly that the Madrid terrorist attacks on March 
11 brought the Socialists to power.   Timmermans (speaking 
before June 13) noted that President Zapatero is still in the 
honeymoon phase and thus the PSOE would have an important 
electoral advantage.    Zapatero has not had to make any 
unpopular decisions and his one major decision ) to pull the 
troops out ) was highly popular.   Timmermans said that all 
of Zapatero's decisions are taken with one idea in mind: 
doing what is popular. 
 
Aznar's Future 
 
8.  (C) Aznar is confident that in the longer term, he will 
be vindicated, Timmermans said.   However, the current period 
is a difficult one for the PP and for Aznar personally.    In 
the coming year, Aznar intends to travel frequently to the 
US.   While based in Spain, he will make speeches to US 
audiences and teach occasional seminars at Georgetown. 
Aznar is working hard on his English and is presiding over 
the Popular Party think tank, FAES.    Timmermans said Aznar 
will make it a point to speak out in favor of the 
transatlantic link and the need for close relations with the 
United States. 
 
June 13:  PP Exceeds Expectations, On Road to Recovery 
 
9.  (C) Popular Party strategists told us in the run up to 
the June 13 election that the PP goal was to keep the race 
close.   None said that they expected to win, but they did 
hope to cut the Socialist margin.   Polling had given the 
Socialists a 6 to 9 point advantage.   The June 13 result was 
far tighter: the Socialists won by only two points.   PP 
leaders regard this as a relative victory.   Jorge Moragas, 
PP Director for International Affairs, told us that the 
result at least succeeded in giving a "shock" to the 
over-confidence of the Socialists and is a signal the PP is 
on the road to recovery. 
MANZANARES