US embassy cable - 04YEREVAN1336

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 YEREVAN 001336 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
DEPT FOR EUR/CACEN, DRL 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, AM 
SUBJECT: FRACTURED OPPOSITION ADMITS FAILURE TO GARNER 
POPULAR SUPPORT 
 
 
------- 
SUMMARY 
------- 
 
1. (SBU) Faced with dismal rally attendance, Armenian 
opposition leaders made announcements June 5 
acknowledging their failure to receive sufficient 
popular support for "decisive actions" aimed at ousting 
President Kocharian.  Instead of launching a promised 
"permanent" protest action, the June 4 opposition rally 
in downtown Yerevan turned into a low-key event 
attended by only one or two thousand people. 
Opposition leaders subsequently announced they would 
take a break to address "organizational issues." 
Meanwhile, a number of NGOs and human rights groups 
continued to conduct protest actions in front of the 
Procurator General's office demanding the release of 
all detainees.  (There are currently 4 people in 
detention, 3 of whom are already serving sentences on 
criminal charges and one awaiting a court hearing). 
End summary. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
OPPOSITION BACKS OFF FROM "DECISIVE ACTION" PROMISES 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
 
2. (U) Only one to two thousand people attended the 
latest opposition rally held in downtown Yereavn on 
June 4.  More importantly, opposition leaders appeared 
to abandon hopes of ousting President Kocharian by 
admitting failure to build sufficient support.  Most 
analysts attribute the opposition's failure to a lack 
of public confidence in its ability to bring about real 
change in the political struggle.  Disagreements 
between opposition leaders have also undermined the 
public's faith in the effectiveness of the opposition 
movement.  Republic Party leader Albert Bazeyan 
publicly apologized to the crowd on June 5, saying, "We 
believe that we are not yet ready to carry out actions 
needed for achieving our final victory."  Bazeyan added 
that the opposition would need to "take some time off" 
because it had failed to solve a number of internal 
organizational issues. 
 
3. (SBU) During the nearly three-hour rally, speeches 
ranged from vague, flowery declamations to harsh 
criticism of the government's anti-corruption strategy. 
The most indefatigable speaker, National Unity leader 
Artashes Geghamian, provided the crowd with a blow-by- 
blow account of his battle with the Chairman of the New 
Times Party, Aram Krapetian, who has sued Geghamian for 
libel as the latest installment of internal conflicts 
among opposition parties.  Republic Party leader Aram 
Sargsyan openly admitted that opposition leaders had 
been overly optimistic in their recent statements to 
crowds of opposition supporters in an effort to bolster 
spirits and garner more support.  Sargsyan said there 
might be a smaller opposition protest on June 16 but 
appeared tentative at best about prospects for the 
gathering. 
 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
NGOS PROTEST AGAINST POLITICALLY MOTIVATED DETENTIONS 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
 
4. (SBU) A group of NGOs and human rights activists 
continued to stage sporadic protest actions in front of 
the Procurator General's office demanding the release 
of the remaining handful of detained participants of 
the opposition rallies.  These groups have staged such 
protests on-and-off since mid-April, following the 
police crackdown and subsequent arrests of protesters 
involved with opposition rallies in front of the 
National Assembly.  As of June 14, there were four 
people in detention, including three people formally 
under arrest on criminal charges and one person 
awaiting a court hearing.  Former Defense Minister 
Vargharshak Harutyunian was detained and charged with 
"publicly insulting" senior government officials.  The 
opposition has dismissed this charge as politically 
motivated.  (He was subsequently released from custody 
on June 11).  Citing official court statistics, the 
head of the International Union of Armenian Lawyers, 
Tigran Ter-Yesayan, stated that since April 14, more 
than 400 people have been subjected to administrative 
detention and/or penalties for participating in 
opposition rallies.  Opposition party activists and 
NGOs confirm, however, that there were no new 
detentions following the latest rally on June 4. 
 
------- 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
5. (SBU) Having failed to win wide-spread public 
support, the fractured opposition seems to be 
retreating for the moment, and has started to hint that 
they may be ready to end their boycott and return to 
the National Assembly for the fall legislative season. 
We believe that the current government can rest easy 
unless and until the opposition manages to develop a 
policy program that would win over the hearts of a 
skeptical Armenian public. 
ORDWAY