US embassy cable - 04HARARE984

UNCLAS HARARE 000984 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
STATE FOR AF/S 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JFRAZER 
USDOC FOR AMANDA HILLIGAS 
TREASURY FOR OREN WYCHE-SHAW 
PASS USTR FLORIZELLE LISER 
STATE PASS USAID FOR MARJORIE COPSON 
 
E. O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: SENV, EAID, BTIO, EINV, ECON, PGOV, ZI 
SUBJECT: GOZ FANTASY STATS 
 
 
     1.   (SBU) Summary:  The June 10 edition of the 
GOZ-controlled Herald reports that exports increased in 
2003 over 2002 despite all signs to the contrary. End 
summary. 
 
     2. (SBU)  Zimbabwe Central Statistics Office (CSO) 
reports that Zimbabwe exports rose in 2003 to hit $2.3 
trillion, or over 20 times the 2002 figure of $110.7 
billion (unadjusted for two years of hyper inflation) 
This, despite the tax on exporters through having to give 
25% of their forex earnings at the official rate of Z$824 
to US$1 rather than the most recent auction rate- 
Z$5349.85 to US$1. In addition, according to U.S. and 
European import statistics, Zimbabwe experienced a 
dramatic 40+ percent drop in exports to the U.S. and EU 
from 2002 to 2003. The article also claims $1.5 trillion 
export earnings in the first four months of 2004. At the 
same time, the Herald reports that tobacco exports 
(formerly Zimbabwe's single largest export crop) are 
down. 
 
     3. (SBU) The Herald announced that the Zimbabwe 
Tourist Authority is planning Chinese language classes 
and has hired Chinese translators for the tourism 
industry. This follows the GOZ professed expectation that 
Chinese tourists to Zimbabwe will increase and offset the 
sharp decline in Western tourist arrivals since the 
beginning of fast track land reform. 
 
     4. (SBU) Comment: GOZ is manipulating data from the 
once respected CSO. The export statistics are unadjusted 
for inflation and touted as a sign of economic recovery. 
Yet, with two years of hyperinflation in the high triple 
digits, the figures actually represent a slow down in 
exports. In fact, tobacco production is now back to 1952 
levels and cotton will, for the first time anyone can 
remember, overtake tobacco as the country's number one 
export crop this year. 
 
     5. (SBU) Comment cont'd: GOZ media assertions on 
trade are just the latest prop in Information Minister 
Jonathan Moyo's Potemkin Zimbabwe. Fantastical claims in 
recent months include increases in tourist arrivals in 
2003 over 2002 and that Zimbabwe accounts for over 40% of 
SADC tourism. Most tourist sites are empty and SADC also 
offers South Africa and Mauritius- both very popular 
destinations for Europeans and others. 
 
     6. (SBU) Comment cont'd: GOZ hopes to dampen public 
dismay over the economic free fall and economic implosion 
over the past four years. Zanu-PF wishes to re-shape its 
image and prove that land reform has been successful in 
the run up to parliamentary elections currently scheduled 
for March 2005. Although the glowing portrayals are 
unlikely to stem the despair of most Zimbabweans, there 
is no sign that Zanu-PF is ready to gear-down its "good 
news everywhere" propaganda machine. 
 
Whitehead