US embassy cable - 04KUWAIT1861

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KUWAIT 001861 
 
SIPDIS 
 
TEL AVIV FOR DCM LEBARON 
RIYADH FOR TUELLER 
TUNIS FOR NATALIE BROWN 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/12/2014 
TAGS: PGOV, KU 
SUBJECT: (SBU) PUBLIC SUPPORT FOR THE RULING FAMILY 
 
REF: A. 03 KUWAIT 000917 
     B. KUWAIT 00768 
     C. KUWAIT 001346 
     D. KUWAIT 001558 
     E. KUWAIT 001705 
     F. KUWAIT 001329 
 
Classified By: CDA FRANK URBANCIC; REASON 1.4 (D). 
 
 
1. (SBU) SUMMARY: The ruling Al-Sabah family enjoys broad 
public support and legitimacy in the eyes of most Kuwaitis. 
Despite the presence of several hotly-debated issues, 
Kuwaitis remain content with their leadership and Government. 
 Kuwaitis, from Sunna to Shia, ultra-wealthy to comfortable 
middle-class, are content overall with the GOK performance 
because the ruling family spreads enough wealth and allows 
enough freedoms to satisfy the general public while still 
clinging to the conservative patriarchal cultural norms of 
the Arabian Gulf.  The slow pace of political change reflects 
the GOK's "don,t rock the boat" approach, which, while 
frustrating to vocal minorities both liberal and 
conservative, appears tolerable to the majority of Kuwaitis. 
END SUMMARY. 
 
(SBU) Some Things Money Can Buy 
------------------------------- 
2. (SBU) The State of Kuwait has about 10 percent of the 
world's proven oil reserves and only about 913,000 citizens. 
This goes a long way in explaining the relative contentment 
of its citizenry.  (NOTE: Given the higher petroleum-related 
profits of late, the Al-Shall Economic Report forecast the 
GOK to have collected oil revenues in the neighborhood of KD 
1.3 billion (USD 4.3 billion) in the first two months of 
fiscal year 2004. END NOTE.) 
 
3. (SBU) Kuwaitis are generally well-to-do and lead a life of 
relative ease.  Citizens capitalize on the generous 
cradle-to-grave welfare package which includes free 
healthcare, education, a housing allowance, and almost 
certain employment.  Although women are legally disadvantaged 
vis--vis their male counterparts, they can lead pampered 
lives, which leaves them generally less inclined to agitate 
for political equality.(Refs A & B) The GOK, while finding it 
increasingly difficult because of the long-term trend of an 
increasing population base and static oil revenues, can still 
afford to buy the confidence and acquiescence of its 
citizens.  Unemployment, which the GOK reports to be around 3 
1/2 percent--there are approximately 10,000 unemployed 
Kuwaiti nationals--is a growing but manageable issue. 
 
(U) A Political Voice 
---------------------- 
4. (SBU) Kuwaitis enjoy a relatively open political society 
and a limited representative democracy.  These freedoms allow 
Kuwaitis to speak openly about almost any social or political 
issue short of criticizing the Amir and the ruling 
family--which few are likely to do anyway because of the 
necessity to curry favor with the Al-Sabah in this top-down 
patronage system.  They have a parliamentary system which 
allows 137,000 male citizens to vote--and women's suffrage is 
being considered seriously.  On balance, Kuwaitis have a 
sense that they have some cultural or political voice in 
their life situation. 
 
5. (SBU) Even Shia*the religious minority who comprise a 
third of Kuwaitis--have gained in legal and social spheres in 
the last year.(Ref C) In March, the Shia community was 
permitted, for the first time, to stage a reenactment of the 
historic battle of Karbala on the holy occasion of Ashoura 
and was granted two time slots for Ashoura-related television 
programming.   Shia have also recently succeeded in their 
long-standing efforts to obtain a Ja,afari Waqf--a religious 
endowment board governed by the Shiite school of 
jurisprudence.  The GOK has established courts utilizing Shia 
jurisprudence for Shiites in personal status matters at all 
levels but the Court of Cassation (Supreme Court). 
 
(SBU) With Wasta For All 
------------------------- 
6. (C) The Al-Sabah ruling family, now led principally by PM 
Shaykh Sabah Al-Ahmad, routinely makes efforts to please all 
Kuwaitis.  Often times, the GOK's policy pronouncements 
appear only intended to placate current critics rather than 
addressing the substance of the issue. 
 
-- The GOK reluctantly went along with the segregation of 
Kuwait University mandated by the legislature but permits 
public mixed-gender popmusic concerts. 
 
-- It reintroduced a bill to grant full political rights for 
women, while the Government's Ministry of Awqaf issued a 
fatwa supporting more stringent rules limiting the mixing of 
sexes at public concerts. 
 
-- It permitted the public reenactment of the historic battle 
of Karbala during Ashoura observances by the Shia community 
in early March but condoned the ten-year prison sentence for 
a Shiite activist who "defamed" Sunni Islam. 
 
7. (C) Two complaints we hear about Al-Sabah governance are 
lack of leadership and influence-peddling, or "wasta."  The 
GOK dispenses its goodwill to all, based on political 
popularity, cultural palatability, or wasta.  The guiding 
principle in GOK leadership seems to be "don't rock the 
boat," a reasonable enough attitude on the part of a small, 
rich, weak country.  While there is a growing public outcry 
against political corruption and wasta, many in this 
tribal-based society seem content to use the system to 
achieve their own goals.  One liberal pundit remarked that 
since the late 1970s, when Shaykh Jabir became Amir, the GOK 
has pursued "backward," i.e. Islamist, policies.  If PM Sabah 
had his way, he claimed, there would be a noticeable move to 
more liberal policies.  But the PM must still work within the 
conservative system established by the Amir.  He explained 
that average Kuwaitis wait to see in which direction the 
political winds are blowing to orient themselves, and the 
varying signals leave many in a state of political confusion. 
 
(U) The Latest Issues 
---------------------- 
8. (C) Several controversial political issues resonate within 
the population but none are enough to incite any threatening 
opposition to the government or to the comfortable Kuwaiti 
way of life.  The hottest political issues of the moment are 
the proposal for granting women political rights and the 
proposed reduction in the number of electoral 
constituencies.(Refs E & D)  The GOK proposed the first and 
seems to be reluctantly going along with the second.  Few of 
those who hope the women's rights issue succeeds admit much 
confidence that the GOK will exert the pressure necessary to 
ensure its success.  On the matter of the electoral 
constituencies, few people seem to have a keen sense of the 
possible significant changes involved.  The MPs who seem most 
opposed to the proposals to reduce the number are those most 
dependent on tribal influence, which such a move would tend 
to dilute. 
 
9. (SBU) Another key issue, that of the bidoon (short for 
"bidoon jinsiya" or without nationality, officially stateless 
Arabs residing in Kuwait, many with Kuwaiti relatives), of 
which there are approximately 100,000, spilled a lot of ink a 
year ago but is no longer on the front pages, after the GOK 
took some steps to alleviate their plight.  There is no 
consensus on the matter: some consider the bidoon 
undocumented Kuwaitis, others see them as foreigners 
deliberately concealing their true nationality.  Kuwaitis, in 
general, want to see a just settlement to this socially 
embarrassing issue, but just what a proper resolution would 
look like is unclear.   Most understand that the GOK cannot 
afford to grant the current level of generous benefits of 
citizenship to such a large number of people. 
 
10. (SBU) Some issues fail to ever gain traction.  In April, 
some Islamists criticized the appointment of the new US 
Ambassador to Kuwait, Richard LeBaron, because of his service 
in Israel, but that outcry faded fast.(Ref F).  The vast 
majority of Kuwaitis, even Islamists, positively accept the 
presence of the US in Kuwait and are tolerant, if not 
supportive, of US actions and intentions in Iraq. 
 
11. (SBU) COMMENT: With its dispensation of wealth, relative 
freedoms, and functional political openness, the rule of the 
Al-Sabah family enjoys popular support.  The 1990-91 Iraqi 
occupation strengthened Kuwaitis' sense of national identity. 
 While there are many, on both sides of the political aisle, 
who would criticize individual GOK policies, at the end of 
the day they know on which side their bread is buttered. 
Until the money disappears or freedoms become repressed, the 
Al-Sabah are likely to enjoy sustained legitimacy and public 
support from the majority of Kuwaitis for the foreseeable 
future. 
URBANCIC