US embassy cable - 04GUATEMALA1460

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 GUATEMALA 001460 
 
SIPDIS 
 
WHA FOR DAS DAN FISK; WHA/CEN FOR LINDWALL 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/10/2009 
TAGS: PGOV, MASS, MCAP, GT 
SUBJECT: BREAKFAST WITH BERGER:  PROGRESS ON MILITARY 
DOWNSIZING, STEIN TO VISIT, DEALING WITH HUMAN RIGHTS 
CRITICISMS, JOINT MAYA JAGUAR WITH BELIZE, OBSTACLE FOR 
FISCAL REFORM 
 
 
Classified By: A/DCM Steven S. Olson for reason 1.5 (d) 
 
Summary 
------- 
1.  (C)  At breakfast with Ambassador June 10, President 
Berger expressed appreciation for U.S. assistance to date on 
military downsizing and accepted that we would need a better 
idea of how the money would be used before asking the 
Congress to unfreeze the $2.2 million of MAP funds.  Vice 
President Stein plans to travel to Washington the week of 
June 28 to help make Guatemala's case.  The military is 
impatient to see signs that "modernization" will accompany 
downsizing, but the government doesn't have the funds.  The 
Guatemalans have good arguments to counter reports of police 
violence during squatter evictions (representatives of the 
Human Rights Ombudsman were present in all cases and did not 
report violence) and hiring of demobilized military to 
strengthen the police (only enlisted men need apply).  Closed 
military bases may not all be sold commerically to raise 
cash, but instead could be sold in parcels with long term 
financing to resolve longstanding and complex conflicts. 
Berger was enthusiastic about a joint Guatemala-Belize Maya 
Jaguar exercise, perhaps trumping lower level reservations. 
Talks with leaders of recent demonstrations suggest that the 
fiscal reform process could take longer than hoped.  End 
Summary. 
 
2.  (SBU)  Ambassador hosted breakfast for President Berger, 
Vice President Stein, Foreign Minister Briz, Chief of Staff 
Gonzalez, and Appointments Secretary Vila on June 10 at the 
Residence.  ADCM/EconCouns, AID Deputy Director and MILGROUP 
Commander also attended.  Berger had asked to meet to discuss 
assistance with his ambitious military downsizing plan. 
 
Military Downsizing 
------------------- 
3.  (C)  Berger was upbeat and confident that the personnel 
reduction in the military to 15,500 men and women would be 
completed by June 30.  The process was on schedule, and 
thorny issues such as financing pensions (the IPM) and 
severance pay had been settled.  However, he sensed 
uneasiness in the ranks that the promised modernization of 
the military was lagging.  This was feeding rumors that all 
the talk of modernization was only a facade and that Berger's 
real intention was to abolish the army.  The government had 
no resources with which to prove the doubters wrong.  He 
asked the status of U.S. efforts to help. 
 
4.  (C)  The Ambassador described the current state of play 
of the two initiatives currently underway:  the continuing 
support from the Center for Civil Military Relations in 
Monterrey CA, with the planned visit of MG (r) Dick Goetze to 
discuss an "opportunity agenda" for modernization; and the 
work of a SouthCom military assessment team, currently in 
country.  The Ambassador said that State and DoD had agreed 
to approach the Congress together to review the possibility 
of releasing the $2.227 million of frozen MAP funds, but the 
agencies wanted to be prepared to answer questions concerning 
how the funds would be used.  The SouthCom team currently in 
country was reviewing that question and assessing the 
military's most pressing needs.  It was also looking at the 
larger question of the scope and cost of transforming the 
military into the sort of leaner and more capable force that 
the President wanted.  Berger was clearly pleased.  He said 
that the military didn't need guns or ammunition; it needed 
the equipment necessary to carry out new roles such as 
responding to a natural disaster. 
 
Selling Assets to Finance Downsizing?  Not Always 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
5.  (C)  The Ambassador asked whether the sale of military 
properties could finance the modernization.  Berger responded 
that it could in part, but the issue was still under study. 
He did not want, a priori, to assume that selling closed 
bases was always the best option.  He planned instead to 
convoke local government and civil society to seek a 
consensus over the best use of land and any facilities.  In 
some cases, a commerical cash sale might turn out to be the 
best option, but he cited the base in Ixcan, Quiche, as a 
case where providing the land to local campesinos (i.e., 
selling it with appropriate long term financing) could prove 
the key to resolving the source of complex historical 
conflicts in that particularly troubled area.  He added that 
giving out land alone wouldn't work; there would have to be 
agricultural extension services and other follow-up by the 
government for the land to generate income. 
 
Stein to Washington 
------------------- 
6.  (C)  The Ambassador said that it would be important for 
the Congress to hear from Guatemala about progress in 
military downsizing.  There was widespread enthusiasm in 
Washington when people heard about Guatemala's plans, but 
some skepticism was inevitable until concrete results were in 
evidence.  The Ambassador encouraged Berger to use the coming 
visits of Codels Blunt and Shelby to explain his plans and 
describe the impressive results to date.  He also encouraged 
Berger to send his emissaries to Washington.  Vice President 
Stein told Ambassador on the way out that he would plan to 
take a group to Washington the week of June 28. 
 
What Concerns Washington 
------------------------ 
7.  (C)  The Ambassador previewed what he thought 
Washington's principal concerns would be when Guatemalan 
visitors presented themselves.  The human rights community 
was concerned by reports of 24 recent cases of evictions of 
campesinos from land they had occupied; by the reported 
complicity of the military in the escape from arrest of Mack 
case defendant Col. Valencia Osorio and continued failure to 
take him back in custody; and by the prospect of demobilized 
military joining and taking charge of the National Civilian 
Police (PNC).  Other areas of concern were transparency in 
the military budget, changing the Constitution and naming a 
Civilian Minister of Defense, and lack of progress on 
creating CICIACS. 
 
Eviction Violence:  Not True 
---------------------------- 
8.  (C)  Vice President Stein addressed the reports of 
evictions of campesinos from land they had invaded.  He said 
the reports of police violence, circulated by campesino 
activist group CONIC via its website, simply were not true. 
He said that a representative of the Human Rights Ombudsman's 
office had been present at each of the eviction sites and -- 
with one exception -- had filed no reports of violence.  He 
noted that pictures that had circulated showing campesinos 
standing by burned-down shacks and destroyed crops showed no 
evidence of a police presence.  All eviction operations were 
undertaken by uniformed police, and there were no pictures 
showing uniformed people.  He could not rule out that armed 
men appearing in some photos were members of private security 
forces of landowners where evictions took place, but CONIC 
was not alleging that private forces were the problem.  Stein 
noted that police did misbehave in one case after finding, 
and consuming, a stash of beer.  Berger said that the 
government's agreement with organizers of the June 8 
nationwide demonstrations called for a 90 moratorium on 
evictions to ensure that land dispute agency CONTIERRA had 
adequately researched cases and exhausted mediation 
possibilities and that court supervision of evictions was 
adequate. 
 
Ex-Military and the Police 
-------------------------- 
9.  (C)  Berger said that military troops were a natural 
source for recruiting rank-and-file police, as they were 
trained in using weapons and well disciplined.  He was 
categorical in declaring, however, that the government would 
not transfer former military officers into positions of 
command in the PNC. 
 
Belize 
------ 
10.  (C)  The Ambassador outlined U.S. thinking on a joint 
Guatemala-Belize Maya Jaguar counternarcotics operation.  He 
noted that traffickers had responded to a successful 
operation in Guatemala by shifting their flights toward 
Belize, with the result that the two following operations 
found nothing.  The traffickers could spot the movement of 
Chinook and Blackhawk helicopters in advance of the operation 
and simply change their plans.  The U.S. was therefore 
considering basing the helicopters in Belize but being 
prepared to chase tracks into Guatemala.  Berger said he 
thought it was a great idea and that it wouldn't be a problem. 
 
11.  (C)  Foreign Minister Briz commented that relations with 
Belize were getting better (after a bad meeting between 
Berger and PM Musa in Guadalajara and the recent hot pursuit 
of a helicopter by Guatemalans some 250 meters into Belizean 
territory, where it crash landed.)  He had sent an emissary 
to Belize to discuss recovery of the helicopter, and matters 
seemed to be moving forward.  He had also discussed the 
border issue with his Belizean counterpart at the OAS 
ministerial in Quito, and they had agreed to meet in 
Washington on July 16 and 17.  He agreed to receive the 
Ambassador on June 14 to discuss these matters further. 
 
Fiscal Reform 
------------- 
12.  (C)  Berger said that progress on fiscal reform was less 
encouraging than he had hoped.  Organizers of the June 8 
demonstrations with whom he'd spoken June 9 were insisting on 
discussing in detail the components of tax policy together 
with the 2004 and 2005 budgets.  Berger commented, "That 
would take all year" and added that it was time to do quickly 
what was possible and move on to other things.  Berger vented 
briefly against the Chamber of Industries' (Comment: Jaime 
Arimany, known for occasional ill-considered outbursts.  End 
Comment).  He added that opponents from the left "had a 
point" when they argued that if "3 percent of the people make 
80 percent of the money, it's obvious who has to pay the 
taxes." 
 
Warm Welcome in Washington 
-------------------------- 
13.  (C)  Berger described his April-May visit to Washington 
in glowing terms.  He said that President Bush and Secretary 
Powell treated him "as if we were old friends" and "knew 
everything about Guatemala."  He was evidently impressed by 
the extent to which the President and Secretary were briefed, 
and he was particularly struck by the Secretary's warmth and 
personality.  He expressed condolences for the death of 
President Regan and said a letter was on its way. 
 
Comment 
------- 
14.  (C)  Berger was chipper and upbeat.  His expectations of 
what we can do to help him with military downsizing appear to 
be grounded in reality, and he seems pleased with what we 
have done to date.  He was on top of the issues and had 
strong and immediate responses to the principal criticisms of 
his government that are circulating here and abroad, such as 
evictions (where Vice President Stein is a particularly 
credible spokesman) and inclusion of former soldiers in the 
police.  The one case where he couldn't deliver was the 
disappearance of Valencia Osorio.  He nevertheless appeared 
to take on board that it was an issue that should be pursued. 
 His reaction to a possible joint Maya Jaguar with Belize 
clearly caught Foreign Minister Briz by surprise.  Briz was 
still furious with the Belizeans days earlier because they 
wouldn't return the Guatemalan helicopter immediately.  With 
luck, Berger made the command decision that can help put the 
helicopter issue behind us (or at least to the side) and make 
Maya Jaguar work. 
HAMILTON