US embassy cable - 04KATHMANDU1080

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KATHMANDU 001080 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR SA/INS; LONDON FOR POL/GURNEY; NSC FOR MILLARD 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/10/2014 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, PTER, NP, Government of Nepal (GON) 
SUBJECT: NEPAL: PM DEUBA'S PLAN 
 
Classified By: Charge Janet Bogue for reasons 1.5 (b) and (d). 
 
 1. (C) SUMMARY. During a warm 40-minute courtesy call by the 
Charge on Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba on June 10, 
Nepal's new Prime Minister broadly outlined the challenges he 
faces in building a new government, dealing with the Maoists, 
and restoring democratic processes in Nepal.  Deuba's stated 
priorities include forming a multiparty government, holding 
phased elections and secret negotiations with the Maoists. 
The new Prime Minister appears determined to succeed, but 
faces significant challenges.  END SUMMARY. 
 
2. (C) Charge met Prime Minister Deuba on June 10 for about 
40 minutes.  Deuba expressed thanks to the United States for 
the military assistance to the Royal Nepal Army (RNA) as well 
as for declaring the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist) 
terrorists.  In particular, the Prime Minister expressed 
thanks to President Bush for meeting him at the White House 
in May 2002. 
 
3. (C) The Prime Minister opined that the United 
Marxist-Leninist (UML) party is a tough negotiator, but he 
hoped to be able to bring them into the government soon. 
Smiling, Deuba asked the Charge for "any help" the Embassy 
could offer to convince the other parties to join the 
government, in particular G.P. Koirala's Nepali Congress. 
Further demonstrating the challenges ahead, Deuba requested 
any help the Embassy could offer to convince King Gyanendra 
to roll back the King's right of approval for any 
Ambassadorial appointments or transfers of senior civil 
servants -- instituted by decree after Deuba had been fired 
as prime minister in October 2002.  Deuba doubted aloud 
whether he could convince the various parties to join his 
government unless the King gave some ground.  The Charge 
responded that the Embassy would continue to press all 
parties for restoration of democratic processes and for a 
multiparty democratic front to deal with the Maoists. 
 
4. (C) Deuba lamented the Maoist recruitment of children, 
kidnapping of teachers for indoctrination, extortion of 
businesses and damage to Nepal's infrastructure.  When asked 
when Deuba planned to negotiate with the Maoists, Deuba did 
not reveal timing, but opined that because open negotiations 
had failed twice, he would proceed with secret negotiations. 
However, he emphasized, his first priority, after forming a 
multiparty government, would be to hold elections.  "I never 
thought I would be the one appointed," Deuba stated.  "The 
King sacked me as incompetent (for not holding elections).  I 
will not be incompetent again."  Mentioning the Indian 
experience in Kashmir, Deuba believed that phased elections 
could proceed in Nepal, regardless of the Maoists.  (NOTE: 
In a seperate meeting on June 7, MFA Joint Secretary for 
South Asia Madan Bhattarai commented to the DCM that India's 
election experiences in Kashmir and Punjab had been one of 
Foreign Secretary Natwar Singh's talking points with the GON. 
 END NOTE.) 
 
5. (C) Deuba mentioned that the King would announce the first 
two members of the cabinet that evening: Prakash Man Singh as 
Minister of Physical Planning and Works; and Bimalendra Nidhi 
as Minister for Education and Sports as well as Minister of 
Industry, Commerce and Supplies.  (NOTE: Bios of the new 
ministers will be provided septel.  END NOTE.)  Deuba added 
that his cabinet would be smaller and more manageable this 
iteration; in addition, only a few ministers would be 
appointed today to leave room for the other parties. 
 
6. (C) COMMENT:  Deuba finds himself in the unenviable 
position of having to overcome a series of hurdles just to 
form his government.  While it appears the UML is on the cusp 
of joining, many of the parties, perhaps to include the UML, 
want to see a tangible show of respect for democratic 
practices by the King, and may hold out for just that.  Other 
wild cards are whether G.P. Koirala, the leader of the other 
faction of the Nepali Congress, will continue to play the 
spoiler and whether the King will be satisfied to be a 
constitutional monarch.  All of these questions must be 
answered before any serious attention can be focused on 
elections or the Maoist problem. 
 
7. (C) Deuba's determination to succeed as Prime Minister was 
palpable.  His goals are clear: a broader-based government, 
including especially the UML, a small cabinet (his last was 
huge and unmanageable), secret negotiations with the Maoists 
(his belief that public posturing by both sides had led to 
previous failures), and quick elections (the failure to hold 
elections being the basis for which he was previously 
removed) reveal his thinking.  The political challenges in 
this many-cornered polity are formidable, however, and sucess 
in meeting his goals will take much determination, work and 
outside support.  END COMMENT. 
BOGUE