US embassy cable - 04LAGOS1207

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 LAGOS 001207 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED - HANDLE ACCORDINGLY 
 
LONDON FOR GURNEY, PARIS FOR NEARY 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, KDEM, NI 
SUBJECT: AH, THE "O'S!" - A VISIT TO OGUN, OYO, OSUN AND 
ONDO STATES (PART 4 OF 4) 
 
REF: A) LAGOS 1206 B) LAGOS 1205 C) LAGOS 1203 D) 
 
     LAGOS 637 
 
 
1. Summary.  This is the last in a four-part report of 
ConOffs visit to four of the five formerly Alliance for 
Democracy Party (AD) States, that were taken by the Peoples 
Democratic Party (PDP) in the 2003 and 2004 federal, state 
and local elections. (Parts 1, 2, and 3 at reftels C, B, and 
A)  After one year under new administrations, all four States 
seem to be making progress in delivering critical government 
services such as free education, poverty alleviation and 
infrastructure improvements. Chief Reuben Fasoranti, acting 
head of the pan-Yoruba socio-political organization, 
Afenifere, hinted that his group would be joining with other 
ethnic PDP opposition political groups to work to take back 
control of the south -- and perhaps more -- from the PDP in 
the 2007 elections.  End summary. 
 
2.  (SBU)  Ondo - "The Sunshine State" 
 
The boundaries of Ondo Parish were established in 1915 and 
remained essentially the same when the region became a State 
in February, 1976.  The population is predominantly Yoruba 
and Muslim. 
 
3.  (SBU) It was raining hard when PolOffs entered the Ondo 
capital, Akure.  Though roads are good in Ondo, it is 
considered the most neglected and impoverished of the four 
southwestern States we visited.  Governor Olusegun Agagu's 
administration has announced that it is addressing all the 
problems of the State -- supply of reliable electricity and 
potable water, road repairs and maintenance, falling 
educational standards, revitalization of the agricultural 
sector, job creation and poverty eradication.  In addition to 
buying closed or failing manufacturing plants with State 
funds and promising to refurbish them to create jobs, the 
Agagu administration is counting on the Free Trade Export 
Zone project with Ogun State to create "millions" of jobs. 
Criticized for being slow to tackle Ondo's many problems, 
Agagu spent his first six months in office developing the 
"Road Map to Progress" for Ondo in conjunction with 
committees of concerned citizens.  As a result, he said, 
after only six months of effort, it is too soon to judge 
whether he and his administration are doing a good job.  "We 
have a four-year mandate," he declared.  "We are doing well, 
but ask us how we have done in December 2006!" 
 
Afenifere plotting new courses 
 
4.  (SBU) PolOffs met with Chief Reuben F. Fasoranti at his 
home in Akure.  Fasoranti is the acting head of Afenifere 
while Pa Abraham Adesanya recuperates from a devastating 
stroke.  (Reftel D)  Fasoranti was not very forthcoming.  He 
repeated the mantra that "AD and Afenifere are strong and 'on 
the ground' nationwide. The people are used to us and they 
know what we have done and can still do for them."  He 
claimed that Afenifere was responsible for the institution of 
free education in Nigeria, and said that, as a result, many 
current leaders and professionals are beneficiaries of this 
and have influenced the political history of the southwest. 
This shared background engenders loyalty that is not lost in 
one election cycle.  According to Fasoranti, the new PDP 
politicians are just following up on programs proposed and 
pursued by Afenifere and AD, such as building and maintaining 
roads, schools and hospitals, and encouraging agricultural 
development with subsidies, grants, and soft loans.  He says 
that the middle class, especially, benefited from 
AD/Afenifere housing subsidies and university scholarships, 
and that the PDP won in the face of all this AD support, only 
through fraud, cheating, and rigging.  Fasoranti explained 
that neither AD nor Afenifere is challenging any of the 
elections in Ondo because "the rigging was so perfect that we 
cannot put forward an actionable casus belli to make our 
case." 
 
5.  (SBU)  Fasoranti told us there is too much political, 
ethnic and religious violence in Nigeria, and that a 
Sovereign National Conference (SNC) is needed so that all 
parties can be heard and receive equitable treatment under 
national law.  "We are getting ourselves together.  We do not 
rule out alliances with like-minded groups."  (Comment.  a 
few days after our visit, Afenifere joined with Ohaneze, the 
pan-Igbo socio-political groups from the southeast, to demand 
that the federal government convene an SNC immediately.  Vice 
President Atiku Abubaker, seeming to be considering the 
demand, promised an SNC would be convened before the 
elections in 2007.  President Olusegun Obasanjo has firmly 
and repeatedly rejected the need for an SNC, and, even as a 
lame duck, Obasanjo continues to consolidate and wield 
considerable control.  An SNC, even at the last minute before 
the next elections seems unlikely.  End comment.) 
6.  (SBU) Despite all the claims of historic loyalty from the 
southwest, Fasoranti said AD and Afenifere are restructuring 
so that "people will like us again."  Asked about the schism 
in the AD between the "Abuja faction" (led by Senator 
Mojisoluwa Akinfenwa) and the "Lagos faction" (led by former 
Governor Bisi Akande), Fasoranti put off answering directly 
saying that the parties had until October 16 to come up with 
a solution that would satisfy elections officials.  (Comment. 
 Several AD and Afenifere officials have publicly stated that 
the most likely and acceptable outcome is that both leaders 
will step aside in favor of a third person acceptable to a 
majority of the members.  End comment.)  He went on to say 
that it is too early to say what AD and Afenifere are 
planning for the 2007 elections, or who might emerge as the 
new (and possibly younger) leaders of the groups.  Fasoranti 
ended our short meeting, saying, "sometimes it is not 
effective nor practical to do what the people want, but we 
will keep trying to find and do what is best for the people." 
 
7.  (SBU) Conclusion.  As several of our interlocutors told 
us, it is too early to predict a winner or even a 
front-runner in the southwest in 2007 elections.  After a big 
start at launching many promising programs, new PDP 
governments may run out of steam or money, as their 
predecessors are said to have done.  All we can say is that 
Nigerians are used to being disappointed in their national 
institutions and systems, as shown by their widespread apathy 
in the last elections.  By 2007 then may be fed up with 
unfulfilled promises and tired of waiting for the "dividends 
of democracy" and become even more apathetic, or they may be 
re-energized by developments and progress at the State level 
to push for broader reform and action. 
HINSON-JONES