US embassy cable - 04LAGOS1205

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 LAGOS 001205 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED - HANDLE ACCORDINGLY 
 
LONDON FOR GURNEY, PARIS FOR NEARY 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, KDEM, PINR, NI 
SUBJECT: AH, THE "O'S" - A VISIT TO OGUN, OYO, OSUN, AND 
ONDO STATES (PART 2 0F 4) 
 
REF: LAGOS 1203 
 
1. Summary. This is the second of a four-part report on 
PolOffs' visit to four of the five former Alliance for 
Democracy Party (AD) States, that were taken by the Peoples 
Democratic Party (PDP) in the 2003 and 2004 federal, state 
and local elections. (Part 1 at reftel)  After one year under 
new administrations, all four States seem to be making 
progress in delivering critical government services such as 
free education, poverty alleviation and infrastructure 
improvements. 
 
2. (SBU)  Oyo State, with the energetic leadership of 
businessman-turned-Governor Rashid Ladoja, is moving out of 
the doldrums and inactivity of the previous administration. 
Former Oyo Governor, Lam Adesina, while voicing the oft-heard 
list of complaints and gripes about the PDP victories in the 
2003 and 2004 elections, still blustered that the AD is 
poised to make a strong comeback in Oyo in the 2007 election 
cycle.  We doubt it.  End summary. 
 
3. Oyo - "The Pacesetter State" 
 
(SBU) Oyo State has existed in some form or other since 
pre-colonial days and was ruled by the traditional Alaafin of 
Oyo.  At independence in 1960, the State became part of the 
now defunct Western State, and in 1991 acquired its current 
borders.  Predominantly ethnic Yoruba, Oyo is also home to a 
minority mix of ethnic tribes from all parts of Nigeria.  Oyo 
is the site of the prestigious and well-attended capital city 
University of Ibadan and the UN-sponsored International 
Institute of Tropical Agriculture (IITA) program.  Since our 
visit last year, the State has made progress maintaining and 
repairing infrastructure such as roads and electricity 
supply.  Local officials readily admitted that the State is 
now more than 60% Muslim, and, as in the other three States 
we visited, our observations indicated a higher percentage. 
The Grand Mosque in Ibadan, with its huge gold dome, 
dominates the city skyline and commands visitors' attention 
more than any church steeple in the city. 
 
Selfish Americans 
 
4.  (SBU) Governor Rashid Adewolu Ladoja, a chemical engineer 
and successful millionaire businessman, impressed us as 
intelligent, candid and astute in his new career as a 
politician.  He graciously dismissed the elaborate press 
conference he had arranged for our meeting and agreed to a 
private session with only a few of his cabinet in attendance. 
 Ladoja started off the meeting by declaring that the US was 
"very selfish" in offering its assistance to Nigeria.  He 
said that Nigeria, being a new democracy, had many domestic 
issues of concern that needed US assistance, but the US was 
interested in furthering only its own goals in the region. 
He mentioned specifically, debt relief for Nigeria and US 
membership in both the Paris and London Clubs.  (Comment. 
PolOff responded to the Governor by pointing out that US 
Mission goals in Nigeria, such as promoting political and 
economic stability, are naturally in our self-interest.  If 
our efforts and assistance produced a safe and secure Nigeria 
where US entities can operate, it was a "win-win" outcome for 
both nations.  End comment.) 
 
5.  (SBU) Ladoja turned quickly to local issues, saying that 
the PDP had won in Oyo State because the people of Oyo had 
been "hoodwinked" by the AD Party.  The people of Oyo have 
been historically outside the mainstream of Nigerian 
politics, according to the Governor.  They were convinced by 
the AD party that they did not need a federal government, and 
that their own AD/Afenifere/Yoruba politicians could do the 
right thing.  "The PDP candidates were just better than the 
AD candidates.  AD and Afenifere relaxed and that is why they 
lost."  The Governor said he had nothing for the Christians 
in Oyo, and nothing for the Muslims either, but everything 
for the citizens of Oyo.  "We are defining what government 
should be," he said.  His administration is concentrating on 
diversification through agricultural development.  Oyo has 
the largest area of arable land in Nigeria and is heavily 
into the federal government's subsidized fertilizer program. 
The State has launched the Oyo State Agricultural 
Re-awakening Programme (AIRPOS) which provides seeds, 
tractors and insecticides to farmers willing to plant corn, 
melons and cassava.  There are plans to revitalize Oyo's 
abandoned cocoa plantations, and the State government has 
begun to clear State-owned lands and offer one free acre to 
any cocoa farmer who already owns an acre under cultivation. 
Any university graduates specializing in agriculture will 
receive two acres free upon graduation. 
 
Living in the present; preparing for the future 
 
6.  (SBU) As for the future, the Governor said that Oyo was 
not counting on windfall income from recent increases in the 
revenue from oil production.  "We will not see anything from 
that for several months," he said.  Oyo is concentrating, 
instead, on improving delivery of government services now. 
Ladoja said the State is going ahead with improvements to all 
roads, whether they are federal, state or local, without 
asking the federal government for up-front funding or 
reimbursement.  To accomplish this, the State has bought and 
operates its own asphalt plant.  Oyo has increased the 
delivery of potable water to urban and rural areas by 40%. 
All government printing is done in-house to save money. 
While education is still free at the primary level, the 
Ladoja administration is requiring parents to pay for all 
end-of-term exams.  As for the 2007 elections, Ladoja says, 
"I have the job of running this State today.  We are not yet 
campaigning -- maybe in October of 2006 we will begin.  We 
are working hard now to show the people that we can do the 
job.  We want your help, but we are realistic.  We know you 
are selfish." 
 
The sore loser rationalizes 
 
7.  (SBU) Late in the afternoon, we met with the AD former 
governor of Oyo State, Lam Adesina.  Adesina was upbeat about 
the future of AD in Oyo and voiced the mantra we heard from 
other AD members.  He said AD was "on the ground in Oyo and 
in firm control."  Adesina also voiced some of the same 
complaints of other losers in the 2003 and 2004 elections. 
He charged that the people did not really get a chance to 
choose the government they wanted.  "The PDP just wrote the 
results they wanted.  We know we won in many of the local 
government areas, but PDP interfered with the elections 
process and threw out the results."  Adesina wants the whole 
election mechanism disbanded and reformed.  He wants the 
current registration lists, the system for selecting election 
officials, and the validation of results abandoned and 
replaced by systems not controlled by the majority PDP. 
Adesina said that AD still has enough stalwart members in Oyo 
to field candidates and win in 2007. 
 
8.  (SBU) The recent schism in the AD has been healed 
according to Adesina, and the party still has much support, 
not only in Oyo and the southwest, but nationwide.  He says 
"nobody likes Governor Ladoja" and the Governor has to travel 
everywhere with bodyguards because he is afraid of attacks. 
The AD wants to create "true" federalism in Nigeria and this 
can only be achieved by calling a Sovereign National 
Conference to rewrite the Constitution that was imposed on 
the people by former military regimes. 
 
HINSON-JONES