US embassy cable - 04CARACAS1950

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CARACAS 001950 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
NSC FOR C. BARTON 
USCINCSO ALSO FOR POLAD 
 
    E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/08/2013 
TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, KDEM, VE 
SUBJECT: CNE SETS AUGUST 15 FOR CHAVEZ RECALL 
 
 
CLASSIFIED BY: POLITICAL COUNSELOR ABELARDO A. ARIAS FOR REASON 1.4 (D) 
. 
 
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SUMMARY 
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1.  (U) FRANCISCO CARRASQUERO, PRESIDENT OF VENEZUELA'S 
NATIONAL ELECTORAL COUNCIL, OFFICIALLY ANNOUNCED JUNE 8 THAT 
OPPONENTS OF PRESIDENT CHAVEZ HAD OBTAINED SUFFICIENT 
SIGNATURES TO PETITION FOR A REFERENDUM TO RECALL THE 
PRESIDENT.  ACCORDING TO THE CNE TALLIES, THE OPPOSITION 
OBTAINED 2,541,636 SIGNATURES, 105,533 MORE THAN THE 20% OF 
THE ELECTORATE NEEDED.  CARRASQUERO SET AUGUST 15 AS THE DATE 
FOR THE VOTE, AND ADDED THAT THE BALLOTING WOULD BE 
COMPUTERIZED.  THE OPPOSITION HAD STRONGLY FAVORED AN AUGUST 
8 DATE AND MANUAL BALLOTING.  COORDINADORA DEMOCRATICA 
NEGOTIATOR FELIPE MUJICA (PRESIDENT OF THE MOVEMENT TO 
SOCIALISM -- MAS) CRITICIZED THE CNE FOR BACKTRACKING ON THE 
AGREED AUGUST 8 DATE, BUT ASSERTED THAT THE OPPOSITION WOULD 
TURN OUT MILLIONS OF VOTERS TO RECALL THE PRESIDENT 
REGARDLESS OF THE DATE.  END SUMMARY. 
 
2.  (U) IN A NATIONALLY BROADCAST (CADENA) STATEMENT JUNE 8, 
NATIONAL ELECTORAL COUNCIL (CNE) PRESIDENT ANNOUNCED THE 
OFFICIAL RESULTS OF THE OPPOSITION'S PETITION FOR A 
REFERENDUM TO RECALL PRESIDENT HUGO CHAVEZ WHICH BEGAN WITH 
    THE FOUR-DAY SIGNATURE DRIVE AT THE END OF NOVEMBER 2003. 
CARRASQUERO REPORTED THAT THE OPPOSITION OBTAINED 2,541,636 
VALID SIGNATURES, 105,533 MORE THAN THE 20% OF THE ELECTORATE 
NEEDED TO CONVOKE THE REFERENDUM.  IN THE MAY 27-31 APPEALS 
PROCESS, CARRASQUERO SAID, 773,755 VENEZUELANS CONFIRMED 
THEIR SIGNATURES, WHILE 91,669 RETRACTED THEIR SIGNATURES 
FROM THE PETITION.  (OPPOSITION TABULATED RESULTS SHOWED 
FEWER CONFIRMED SIGNATURES, 754,397 AND MORE RETRACTED 
SIGNATURES 95,777.) 
 
3.  (U) CARRASQUERO ALSO ANNOUNCED THAT THE REFERENDUM WOULD 
TAKE PLACE AUGUST 15.  THE CNE PRESIDENT ALSO SAID THE 
BALLOTING WOULD BE COMPUTERIZED.  CHAVEZ OPPONENTS HAD 
ADVOCATED FOR THE REFERENDUM TO BE HELD AUGUST 8, ARGUING 
THAT AUGUST 15 IS TO CLOSE TO THE THRESHOLD DATE OF AUGUST 
AFTER WHICH THE VICE PRESIDENT WOULD TAKE OVER IN CASE THEY 
ARE ABLE TO REVOKE CHAVEZ INSTEAD OF THERE BEING NEW 
ELECTIONS.  THEY ALSO ARGUED THAT COMPUTERIZED BALLOTING WAS 
NOT NECESSARY IN A SIMPLE VOTE SUCH AS THIS, THAT THE SYSTEM 
IS UNTRIED AND SUBJECT TO MANIPULATION, AND THAT RISK OF 
SYSTEMS FAILURE OR FAULTY PREPARATIONS COULD PUSH THE 
REFERENDUM BEYOND AUGUST 15. 
 
4.  (U) GOV OFFICIALS HAVE NOT REACTED PUBLICLY TO 
CARRASQUERO'S ANNOUNCEMENT.  MIRANDA STATE GOV. ENRIQUE 
MENDOZA, SPEAKING FOR THE COORDINADORA DEMOCRATICA JUNE 9, 
TOLD REPORTERS THE DATE MADE NO DIFFERENCE BECAUSE THE 
OPPOSITION WAS PREPARED TO WIN.  "THE OVERWHELMING MAJORITY 
RESPONSE WILL ALWAYS BE THE SAME: THE COUNTRY IS GOING TO 
HAVE A NEW PRESIDENT."  MENDOZA ECHOED COMMENTS IMMEDIATELY 
FOLLOWING CARRASQUERO'S ANNOUNCEMENT BY COORDINADORA 
    NEGOTIATOR FELIPE MUJICA (PRESIDENT OF MOVEMENT TO SOCIALISM 
-- MAS).  MUJICA SAID THE SETBACKS ON THE DATE AND 
COMPUTERIZATION WERE NOT SIGNIFICANT BECAUSE THE OPPOSITION 
WAS PREPARED TO DEFEAT CHAVEZ ON AUGUST 15 WITH MILLIONS OF 
VOTES. 
 
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COMMENT 
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5.  (C) CARRASQUERO'S ANNOUNCEMENT OF THE OFFICIAL RESULTS 
BROADLY DEFINED THE PARAMETERS FOR THE RECALL.  A ROUGH AND 
TUMBLE CAMPAIGN WILL OCCUPY CENTER STAGE AND PUBLIC 
ATTENTION.  THE MOST IMPORTANT CONCERN, HOWEVER, IS WHETHER 
THE GOV CAN AND WILL ENSURE A FAIR BALLOTING.  WE KNOW THE 
INTERNATIONAL OBSERVERS HAVE BEEN IN THE GOV'S CROSSHAIRS AND 
THEIR PARTICIPATION WILL BE CRUCIAL.  THEY CERTAINLY 
DEMONSTRATED THEIR IMPORTANCE DURING THE APPEALS PROCESS. 
THE USE OF AN INNOVATIVE, UNTRIED COMPUTERIZED SYSTEM FOR 
THIS PIVOTAL EVENT MERITS CLOSE ATTENTION ALSO.  ALTHOUGH THE 
PAPER BACK-UP IT EMPLOYS IS A RECOGNIZED SAFEGUARD, THE ROOM 
FOR MANIPULATION AND FRAUD IS AMPLE, AND THUS UNDERSCORES THE 
NEED FOR INTERNATIONAL OBESRVATION. 
 
CARACAS 00001950  002 OF 002 
 
RES, WHILE 91,6 
      2004CARACA01950 - CONFIDENTIAL