US embassy cable - 04FRANKFURT4964

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 FRANKFURT 004964 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, ECON, PINR, TBIO, GM 
SUBJECT: Local Election Preview / SW Germany 
 
 
Sensitive but unclassified -- not for internet distribution. 
 
1.  (SBU) SUMMARY: On June 13, three states in SW Germany -- 
Baden-Wuerttemberg (B-W), Rheinland-Pfalz (R-P) and Saarland 
-- will hold local elections concurrently with EU-wide 
European Parliament elections in an effort to increase voter 
participation.  Local elections will serve as a bellwether 
for the overall political climate in southwestern Germany 
and could have an immediate impact on the political future 
of important figures including R-P Christian Democrat (CDU) 
flag-bearer Christoph Boehr and B-W Minister President Erwin 
Teufel (CDU).  We expect strong support for conservatives in 
all three states and continuing dissatisfaction with the 
national government and Chancellor Schroeder's Agenda 2010 
reforms.  END SUMMARY. 
 
Saarland 
-------- 
 
2.  (U) Saarland's June 13 local races will take place 
during the run-up to its September 5 state elections.  In 
1999, the CDU's strong finish in local elections served to 
foreshadow the end of the SPD's 15-year rule in Saarland 
later that year.  Popular Christian Democrat Minister- 
President Peter Mueller continues to draw wide support and 
is the odds-on favorite to retain his seat in the upcoming 
contest.  Although the SPD currently holds a majority in 
Saarland's counties, three Social Democrats are up for re- 
election or are retiring this year, and the balance could 
change.  Of particular interest is the upcoming election for 
lord mayor of Saarbruecken, the second most powerful person 
in Saarland.  The contest will be wide open, as SPD 
incumbent Hajo Hoffman is retiring this year. 
 
3.  (U) Recent opinion polling places the CDU 21 points 
ahead of the SPD (54 to 33) in Saarland's state elections, 
with the Greens at five percent and the FDP at three 
percent.  CDU caucus leader Peter Hans attributes four 
percent of the CDU lead to a "brilliant Minister-President" 
and another four to a "competitor that gets weaker by the 
day."  Former Saarland minister-president Oskar Lafontaine 
has had little success in rallying the SPD base in support 
of the party's lead candidate, Heiko Maas.  Social Democrats 
opine that the continued unpopularity of the national 
government has undermined their "substantive criticism" of 
Saarland's CDU administration.  Among the smaller parties, 
FDP state chairman Christoph Hartmann blamed his party's low 
numbers on Mueller's strength and popularity, noting that 
"people simply believe the CDU can do it alone."  The Greens 
hope to re-enter the Saar parliament on the back of the 
SPD's unpopularity and are doubtful that the CDU will lose 
its absolute majority. 
 
Baden-Wuerttemberg 
------------------ 
 
4.  (U) Recent polls indicate a comfortable lead for the B-W 
Christian Democrats while the SPD continues to suffer from 
general voter dissatisfaction with the national government. 
In the 1999 local elections, the CDU emerged as the 
strongest party with 34 percent of the vote state-wide, 
edging out traditionally strong independent lists (which 
together garnered 33.7 percent).  Social Democrats  seek to 
maintain their 1999 level of support (19.8 percent) based on 
charismatic SPD Bundestag member Ute Kumpf's challenge to 
CDU incumbent Wolfgang Schuster in October elections for 
lord mayor of Stuttgart (B-W's biggest city and home of 
automotive concerns Daimler-Chrysler, Bosch, and Porsche). 
Independent voter groups will continue to play a major role 
on the local level. 
 
5.  (U) Susanne Eisenmann, CDU standard-bearer in Stuttgart, 
confided that she believes the Christian Democrats will 
prevail in local elections, but predicts they will have a 
hard time making additional gains beyond those made in 1999. 
Key contacts expect M-P Teufel to declare his political 
intentions after the elections, and some speculate that 
Teufel might seek another term if the CDU makes an excellent 
showing. 
 
Rheinland-Pfalz 
--------------- 
 
6.  (U) In the 1999 local elections, the CDU defended its 
position as Rheinland-Pfalz's strongest party with a showing 
of 46.1 percent, versus 36.1 percent for the SPD.  Other 
parties all polled  single digits (independents 7.6 percent, 
Greens 5.0 pct, FDP 4.1 pct).  Recent polls indicate that 
the CDU likely will repeat its strong 1999 performance.  SPD 
sources in Rheinland-Pfalz worry the party's weakness at the 
national level may cause it to lose ground locally. 
Although the CDU is framing local elections as a dry run for 
Rheinland-Pfalz's 2006 state elections, observers currently 
believe that Minister President Beck's personal popularity 
could outweigh flagging support for the party and secure him 
another term. 
 
7.  (SBU) Elections in Rheinland-Pfalz may become a 
referendum not on M-P Beck, but on R-P CDU leader Christoph 
Boehr.  Although the CDU remains strong within Rheinland- 
Pfalz, Boehr is often criticized within the party for poor 
leadership and an aloofness that contrasts sharply with 
Beck's "human touch."  According to Ralf Glesius, party 
manager of the Junge Union (the CDU's youth organization), 
the CDU will visit the issue of "standard-bearer" after the 
June elections.  The CDU is unlikely to fare poorly, but if 
they fail to break new ground against a weakened SPD, 
Boehr's days as party leader could be numbered. 
COMMENT 
------- 
8. (SBU) Although all politics may be local, the continuing 
unpopularity of the national government will likely be the 
dominant factor in the upcoming June 13 elections. 
Conservatives are likely to make strong showings in Baden- 
Wuerttemberg and Rheinland-Pfalz local elections -- despite 
leadership struggles within both state parties -- and the 
SPD will be fortunate even to match its relatively weak 1999 
showing.  With a popular CDU minister-president and the 
recent modest upturn in the Saar economy, Saarland's voters 
seem to have little desire for change.  Consequently, the 
Saar CDU is likely to do very well in local contests and to 
retain its absolute majority in upcoming state elections. 
END COMMENT. 
 
BODDE