US embassy cable - 04CARACAS1942

C O N F I D E N T I A L  CARACAS 001942 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
NSC FOR C. BARTON 
USCINCSO ALSO FOR POLAD 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/08/2013 
TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, KDEM, VE 
SUBJECT: VENEZUELA REFERENDUM: RECALL OR RATIFICATION 
 
 
Classified By: Political Counselor Abelardo A. Arias for reason 1.4 (d) 
. 
 
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SUMMARY 
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1.  (C) Before a multitude of supporters June 6, President 
Hugo Chavez morphed the recall referendum sought by his 
opponents into a referendum to ratify his mandate.  He called 
on his supporters to help him once again defeat the enemies 
of the Bolivarian revolution who would deprive them of the 
social programs Chavez has started.  Chavez's shift is 
important as the National Electoral Council, grappling with 
the questions of when the referendum will be and whether the 
process will be manual or electronic, also debates the 
formulation of the referendum question.  While the President 
has strategically gone into full campaign modeu, his 
opponents focus on tactical battles, and relegate matters 
such as identifying their leading candidate to a second 
level.  End Summary. 
 
2. (U) President Hugo Chavez, having accepted that the 
preliminary results of the appeals process indicated that 
there would be a recall referendum, convoked a rally in 
Caracas June 6.  Addressing the hundreds of thousands of 
supporters bused in from around the country, Chavez said he 
was pleased that the opposition had opted for a peaceful, 
constitutional route and called on his opponents to reject 
violence and refrain from seeking international intervention. 
 Denying that "we" had suffered a defeat, the President 
mocked the opposition's claim to victory, alleging that it 
was already considering dismantling the revolution's social 
programs, privatizing the state oil company and to reinstate 
military coup-plotters into the armed forces. 
 
3.  (U) Chavez called the referendum -- not once using the 
word recall, instead referring to it as national or 
ratification -- perhaps the best thing that could happen to 
Venezuelans because the "oligarchy" would now stop its 
whimpering.  Accepting it as "one more challenge," he warned 
the opposition "and its foreign masters" to prepare for a 
defeat that "will be indelibly written in the history of the 
21st century."  Chavez told his supporters to prepare for 60 
days of hard campaigning and set their goal at obtaining more 
than twice the vote that brought Chavez to office. 
 
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What's the date? 
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4.  (U) Chavez told the crowd he did not care whether the 
National Electoral Council (CNE) set August 8 or August 15 as 
the date for the referendum.  Vice President Jose Vicente 
Rangel and other leading Chavez allies have come out in favor 
of the later date.  CNE director Jorge Rodriguez has told 
reporters he favors the August 15 date because the Council 
needs the additional time for preparations.  The CNE is 
expected to set the date when results are announced June 8. 
 
5.  (U) Opposition leaders across the board are insisting on 
the August 8 date.  Miranda State Gov. Enrique Mendoza told 
reporters June 7 that they expect the CNE to honor a verbal 
commitment made to them by CNE director Jorge Rodriguez 
during the appeals process negotiations.  Mendoza said August 
8 is key because, should any problems arise, Venezuelans 
would have one more Sunday at their disposal to hold the 
referendum before August 19.  Chavez opponents also fear that 
the GoV may employ legal maneuvering, such as seeking 
distinction between when the voting occurred and when 
official results are in, to deny them new elections.  (Note: 
If a successful recall referendum occurs after August 19, 
there are no new presidential elections and the Vice 
President would assume office.) 
 
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Machines: Why Worry? 
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6.  (U) Another point of contention before the CNE is whether 
to conduct the referendum with paper ballots or use 
 
electronic machines.  CNE director Rodriguez, who had a 
leading role in obtaining the contract for the new machines 
to be used, cites the electoral law as the reason for going 
the computer route.  VP Rangel and other Chavez supporters 
have also flatly taken the side of computerized voting. 
Fifth Republic Movement deputy Luis Tascon asserted that 
using computers guarantees transparency in the process and 
charged that the opposition insists on paper ballots so it 
can commit fraud. 
 
7.  (U) Conversely, the opposition believes the GoV insists 
on using the computers so it will be able to commit fraud. 
Among the reasons Chavez opponents cite is the partial GoV 
ownership (28% according to the Miami Herald) of the 
consortium that has the contract for the machines; all the 
machines needed for the vote have yet to be delivered; and 
the software for them has yet to be written.  Additionally, 
there is concern about possible manipulations and electronic 
fraud and Venezuelans' lack of familiarity with the machines. 
 
 
8.  (C) CNE director Ezequiel Zamora, who opposes using the 
new machines for the referendum, argues that this is not time 
to try out a new system.  He noted, for example, that the 
infrastructure -- electricity and telephony -- is not the 
same in other parts of the country as it may be in the 
capital.  Carter Center representative Francisco Diez told 
the Ambassador that the computerization of the referendum 
should not be so problematic.  They had seen a demonstration 
of the machines, Diez said, and the electoral expert working 
for the consortium (we presume this is a former IFES 
consultant) is favorably known to them.  Each machine has 
built-in UPS to keep it functioning if power fails, and can 
transmit results by cellphone or satellite if hard lines 
fail. 
 
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Fighting for the "Yes" 
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9.  (U) Another point of contention before the CNE is the 
formulation of the question for the referendum.  Having 
invested more than a year on a "yes" vote, the Opposition 
favors a question that calls for an affirmative answer, i.e., 
"Do you agree with revoking the mandate of the President of 
the Republic?"  Chavez, however, turned the tables June 6 
when he made the recall referendum a ratification referendum. 
 The question his supporters favor is "Are you in favor of 
President Chavez concluding his term?"   There is as yet no 
definition of when the CNE has to decide on the language of 
the question.  The later that the decision comes in the next 
two months, assuming that it will be formulated in favor of 
the GoV, the more difficult it will be for the Opposition's 
campaign. 
 
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Comment 
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10.  (C) While President has gone into full campaign mode, 
the Opposition battles tactically over questions such as the 
date, computerization or the language in the question to be 
put before the voters.  Matters such as who would be the 
opposition candidate -- or for that matter, how many -- are 
temporarily relegated to secondary attention.  Fortunately 
for the opposition, solutions to at least two of the three 
predominant issues appear to be in the offing.  Devoting 
energies to a larger, strategic vision of how to approach the 
referendum and the campaign to go along with it are a must 
that the Opposition can ill afford to delay. 
SHAPIRO 
 
 
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      2004CARACA01942 - CONFIDENTIAL