US embassy cable - 04RANGOON719

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 RANGOON 000719 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR EAP/BCLTV; USPACOM FOR FPA 
COMMERCE FOR ITA JEAN KELLY 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/08/2014 
TAGS: PGOV, PINS, BM, National Convention, Ethnics 
SUBJECT: ETHNICS HOPING AGAINST HOPE 
 
REF: A. RANGOON 714 (NOTAL) 
     B. RANGOON 601 
 
CLASSIFIED BY: COM CARMEN M. MARTINEZ FOR REASONS 1.4 (B,D) 
 
1.  (C) SUMMARY:  THE NATIONAL CONVENTION (NC) RESUMED JUNE 7 
AFTER A TWO-DAY RECESS.  THOUGH THE SPDC'S EMPTY PROMISES TO 
RE-EXAMINE THE 104 PRINCIPLES HAVE LEFT THE ETHNIC CEASE-FIRE 
GROUPS (CFGS) RATHER FRUSTRATED, THE CFGS PARADOXICALLY STILL 
HOPE FOR SOME DELIVERABLES ON THE SHARING OF POWER IN THE NEW 
CONSTITUTION.  HOWEVER, THE ETHNICS, WHO HAVE BY DEFAULT 
BECOME THE ONLY VOICE OF POTENTIAL CRITICISM AT THE NC, ADMIT 
THEY EXPECT VERY LITTLE FROM THE NC, WHICH MAY ADJOURN IN 
LATE JUNE FOR A TWO-MONTH BREAK.  END SUMMARY. 
 
BACK ON THE RESERVATION 
 
2.  (C) WEEK FOUR OF THE NATIONAL CONVENTION BEGAN JUNE 7 
WITH ALL DELEGATES RETURNING TO THE NYAUNG HNI PIN NC SITE 
AFTER 700 OF THEM TOOK THEIR FIRST WEEKEND RECESS SINCE THE 
NC STARTED.  CFG REPRESENTATIVES IN RANGOON TELL US THEY ARE 
UNHAPPY THE SPDC HASN'T ALLOWED OPEN DEBATE OF THE 104 
PRINCIPLES AND SIX OBJECTIVES AS WAS HOPED PRIOR TO THE 
CONVENTION START (REF B). THE NEW MON STATE PARTY (NMSP) AND 
THE KACHIN INDEPENDENCE ORGANIZATION (KIO) CFGS EVEN SENT A 
LETTER TO THE NC COMMISSION ASKING FOR A REVIEW OF THE 104 
PRINCIPLES BUT WERE REBUFFED.  IN THE END THE CFGS AVOIDED 
CONFRONTING THE SPDC, AND THOUGH PREVIOUSLY MUCH-DISCUSSED, 
DID NOT USE THE WEEKEND RECESS TO STAGE A BOYCOTT OR SIT-OUT. 
 
 
WHAT DISSENT CHANNEL? 
 
3.  (C) ETHNIC LEADERS TELL US THAT BY DEFAULT, THE CFGS IN 
THE "SPECIALLY INVITED GUESTS" DELEGATE CATEGORY HAVE BECOME 
THE ONLY DELEGATES AT THE NC WILLING TO BE CRITICAL OF THE 
SPDC OR VOICE INDEPENDENT THOUGHT.  HOWEVER, ONE DELEGATE IN 
THE "POLITICAL PARTY" CATEGORY, AN MP-ELECT EXCOMMUNICATED 
FROM THE NLD, TOLD US HE AND THE OTHER HANDFUL OF EX-NLD 
DELEGATES ARE TRYING TO IMPLEMENT THE PRINCIPLES OF THE NLD 
DURING THE CONVENTION, SINCE THEY WERE ELECTED ON THE NLD 
TICKET IN 1990.  HOWEVER, UNLIKE THEIR CFG CO-DELEGATES WHO 
CAN COMMUNICATE WITH ETHNIC LEADERS IN RANGOON BY SATELLITE 
PHONE AND COURIER, THESE EX-NLD DELEGATES HAVE HAD NO 
OFFICIAL CONTACT WITH, AND RECEIVE NO INSTRUCTIONS FROM, 
ANYONE OUTSIDE OF THE REMOTE NC COMPOUND. 
 
STATES RIGHTS! 
 
4.  (C) THE 19 CFGS HAVE JOINTLY SIGNED A PAPER TO BE 
SUBMITTED THIS WEEK TO THE NC WORKING COMMITTEE FOR WRITING 
CHAPTERS 4, 5, AND 6 DRAFTING GUIDELINES.  THESE CHAPTERS 
WILL ADDRESS SHARING OF POWER BETWEEN THE STATES AND THE 
CENTRAL GOVERNMENT FOR THE LEGISLATIVE, EXECUTIVE, AND 
JUDICIARY FUNCTIONS.  THE CFGS ARE SEEKING FORMAL AUTONOMY IN 
CULTURE, RELIGION, EDUCATION, AND LAW.  HOWEVER, THE KIO VICE 
CHAIRMAN MAJ GEN ZAU SEIN, DOES NOT REALLY EXPECT THE NC 
WORKING COMMITTEE TO INCORPORATE THE CFGS' DESIRED LANGUAGE 
IN THE FINAL GUIDELINE PAPER. 
 
5.  (C) UNDER THE SPDC'S SIX OBJECTIVES AND 104 PRINCIPLES, 
THE DRAFTING GUIDELINES WILL RESERVE 25 PERCENT OF POSITIONS 
IN THE FEDERAL, STATE/DIVISION, DISTRICT, AND TOWNSHIP-LEVEL 
LEGISLATIVE, EXECUTIVE, AND JUDICIAL BODIES FOR MILITARY 
OFFICERS.  IN SPITE OF THIS, KIO LEADERS SAY THEY REMAIN 
HOPEFUL THAT THE SPDC WILL GIVE THEM SOMETHING TO TAKE HOME. 
IF IN THE END THEY DO GO HOME EMPTY-HANDED, THEY "WILL ASSESS 
THEIR OPTIONS AT THAT TIME." IF THE KIO FEELS THE PROCESS TOO 
UNDEMOCRATIC, THEY WILL CONSIDER NOT SENDING A REPRESENTATIVE 
TO THE CONSTITUTIONAL DRAFTING COMMITTEE.  (NOTE: THE NEXT 
STEP, DRAFTING THE CONSTITUTION, IS STEP TWO IN THE "ROAD MAP 
TO DEMOCRACY.") 
 
SWIFTLY GO THE DAYS 
 
6. THE SHAN STATE ARMY AND KIO LEADERS TELL US THE NC WORKING 
COMMITTEE WILL REVIEW THE CHAPTERS 4, 5, AND 6 DRAFTING 
GUIDELINE PAPERS AND WILL COMBINE THEM INTO ONE PAPER.  THAT 
FINAL GUIDELINE PAPER WILL BE EDITED BY THE SPDC AND THEN 
PRESENTED TO THE NC PLENARY SESSION IN MID-JUNE FOR "COMMENT" 
AND APPROVAL.  THE NC WILL LIKELY THEN ADJOURN FOR A FEW 
MONTHS.  NEXT ON THE NC TO-DO LIST IS WRITING THE DRAFTING 
GUIDELINES FOR CHAPTER 7, WHICH WILL ESTABLISH THE CHIEF OF 
THE ARMED FORCES AS THE COMMANDER IN CHIEF, AND WILL RESERVE 
THE RIGHT OF THE MILITARY TO TAKE POWER IF THE COMMANDER IN 
CHIEF DEEMS THE SITUATION IN THE COUNTRY TO BE UNSTABLE. 
 
7.  (C) COMMENT: THE CFGS EVIDENTLY HAVE REALIZED THAT THE 
SHARING-OF-POWER CHAPTERS 4, 5, AND 6 ARE THE MOST IMPORTANT 
TO THEM, AND THEY HOPE THE DRAFTING GUIDELINES WILL CODIFY 
THE LONG-SOUGHT AUTONOMY FOR THEIR ETHNIC STATES.  HOWEVER, 
THEY FULLY ADMIT THEY'RE UNABLE TO AFFECT SUCH A FAVORABLE 
OUTCOME -- AN ADMISSION THAT THE SR GEN THAN SHWE IS IN FULL 
CONTROL OF THIS PROCESS.  SINCE THERE ARE NO PREPARATIONS FOR 
RESUMING ETHNIC INSURGENCY, MUCH LESS A BOYCOTT OF THE NC, 
FINAL DRAFTING GUIDELINES FOR A STRONG CENTRAL GOVERNMENT AND 
WEAK DEPENDENT ETHNIC STATES CONTROLLED BY THE MILITARY SEEMS 
A FOREGONE CONCLUSION.  END COMMENT. 
MARTINEZ