US embassy cable - 04DUBLIN868

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 DUBLIN 000868 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL, EUN 
SUBJECT: Local and European Elections in Ireland: 
        Ahern Government to Take Hits, But Not At 
        Expense of TransAtlantic Relationship 
 
REFERENCE:  Dublin 811 
 
1.  (SBU) Summary:  Local and European Parliament 
elections on June 11 will be a referendum on Irish PM 
Ahern's Fianna Fail-led coalition government, as 
voters have their first say since returning the 
government to office in 2002.  Ahern's FF party is 
expected to take sizeable hits for failure to deliver 
on the domestic agenda; foreign policy issues, 
including Iraq, do not feature prominently in the 
debate.  The political opposition looks set to make 
healthy gains, particularly the left-leaning Labour 
and Sinn Fein parties.  After EU enlargement, Irish 
MEP seats were reduced from 15 to 13; with local 
issues dominant, we do not anticipate any hardening 
of views on the TransAtlantic relationship.  End 
Summary. 
 
Local Elections A Referendum on Ahern Government 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
 
2.  (SBU)  Local and European elections were last 
held in Ireland in 1999, with PM Bertie Ahern's 
Fianna Fail taking 383 of the 883 county and city 
council seats nationwide.  Current polling indicates 
the party is down eight percent in support from 1999, 
and we expect Fianna Fail to lose anywhere from 50 to 
100 seats come June 11.  The public, while not openly 
hostile to the government, is still critical of the 
government's failure to deliver on its 2002 general 
election manifesto, with spending cuts in education 
and health care the most sensitive issues.  Anything 
over a 50 seat loss will spell trouble for Ahern, 
whose personal popularity rating is in the low 40s. 
A meltdown in the local elections may re-ignite 
rumors about Ahern's departure for the EU Commission 
(reftel).  Though unlikely to signal his imminent 
departure, a poor return may prompt Ahern to be more 
radical in a Cabinet shuffle expected during the 
summer recess. 
 
Growth of the Left 
----------------- 
 
3.   (SBU)  Despite the downturn in government 
support, moderate opposition party Fine Gael is 
failing to capitalize on voter unhappiness.  Fine 
Gael, decimated in the 2002 general election, is 
struggling to convince the electorate it is still 
relevant, and to hold on to its 278 local seats.  A 
loss of more than fifty seats would spell doom for 
party leader Enda Kenny, and leave many questioning 
Fine Gael's future. 
 
4.  (SBU)  The largest beneficiaries are likely to be 
the Labour Party, which has raised its profile with 
strong anti-war views, and Sinn Fein, which is 
focusing on marginalized inner-city communities. 
Polls indicate that Labour's bounce will be smaller 
than Sinn Fein's, with the latter expected to double 
its current low baseline of 21 local seats.  The 
Green Party and Independent candidates may attract a 
small protest vote, but are unlikely to figure in the 
overall scheme of things. 
 
European Parliament Candidates 
------------------------------ 
 
5.   (SBU)  Under the Nice Treaty, which paved the 
way for EU enlargement, Ireland's representation in 
the European Parliament was cut from 15 to 13 seats. 
With eight of the current MEPs retiring, the 
competition for seats is fierce and wide open. 
Fianna Fail will struggle to hold on to its six 
seats, while Fine Gael and Labour may add to their 
seats (four and one, respectively).  Fine Gael's 
likely success in the EP elections, in contrast to 
the local elections, is based on a smart selection of 
candidates, with a slate that balances youth with 
experience.  Sinn Fein hopes to win its first MEP 
seat, but polls suggest this will be a struggle.  The 
Greens may lose both their MEP slots. 
 
6.  (SBU)  Likely MEP winners include Dublin Lord 
Mayor (and Bertie Ahern protg) Royston Brady; Fine 
e 
Gael Foreign Affairs Spokesperson Gay Mitchell; and 
current Labour MEP Proinsias De Rossa.  De Rossa is a 
staunch critic of U.S. foreign policy, as would be 
the other strong Labour candidate Peter Cassells (a 
trade union leader).  Mitchell is an Atlanticist who 
has long argued for Ireland to rethink its position 
on military neutrality, and the other Fine Gael MEP 
contenders fall in behind this line.  Brady is 
inexperienced in foreign policy, but may be receptive 
to Ahern's counsel.  Sinn Fein announced a strong 
anti-war and pro-neutrality platform in launching its 
campaign.  The other MEP candidates are largely 
focused on domestic issues, particularly the impact 
of the Common Agricultural Policy reforms on Irish 
farmers.  Iraq and U.S.-EU ties do not feature 
prominently on the door steps, though this has not 
stopped the Labour Party, Sinn Fein, and, to a lesser 
extent, the Greens, from attempting to make it an 
election issue. 
 
 
 
 
KENNY