US embassy cable - 04DUBLIN867

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 DUBLIN 000867 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR MCKIBBENS AND VOLKER, DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/UBI 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/08/2014 
TAGS: PREL, PTER, PHUM, ETRD, EAIR, MASS, MARR, CASC, CVIS, EUN 
SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR THE PRESIDENT'S TRIP TO IRELAND 
JUNE 25-26: THE BILATERAL AGENDA 
 
REF: DUBLIN 826 
 
Classified By: CDA Jane B. Fort, reason 1.4 (d) 
 
1.   (C)  Summary:  Irish President Mary McAleese and Prime 
Minister Bertie Ahern are looking forward to welcoming the 
President to Dromoland Castle in the west of Ireland for the 
U.S.-EU Summit June 26.  Ahern can be justly proud of his 
management of the EU Presidency to date, including his 
leadership in helping to repair TransAtlantic ties.  His 
higher international profile is espeically useful as Ahern 
continues to struggle domestically.  His political party is 
predicted to lose seats in June 11 local and European 
Parliament elections, despite an economic upturn, as voters 
take out their frustration over the slow pace of reforms in 
basic services. 
 
2.   (C)  Although militarily neutral Ireland did not support 
the war in Iraq, and we expect a vocal (if harmless) turnout 
of protestors (reftel), the state of U.S.-Irish relations 
remains as strong as ever.  Ireland continues to allow the 
U.S. military to refuel at Shannon airport, to foster the 
vibrant commercial ties between our nations, and to support 
major peacekeeping operations such as ISAF and Liberia.  U.S. 
support for political progress in Northern Ireland is deeply 
appreciated, and is a subject of particular passion for 
President McAleese and her husband.  We should push the Irish 
Government to break the logjam in Parliament on new laws to 
criminalize international terrorism.  With a UN mandate, 
Ireland could send troops to Iraq, although this would be 
unpopular; we may wish to sound out Ahern on this.  End 
Summary. 
 
The Domestic Scene 
------------------ 
 
3.   (SBU)  On June 11, PM Ahern's coalition government faces 
its first real test since general elections in 2002, as 
voters elect local and city councillors, and Members of the 
European Parliament (MEP).  Voter unhappiness with perceived 
backtracking on promises to improve basic services has 
gradually diminished Ahern's approval ratings, currently in 
the low 40s.  Analysts expect that Ahern's coalition will 
lose a significant number of local seats, and possibly an MEP 
seat or two, with more left-leaning parties such as Sinn Fein 
and Labour predicted to benefit.  While a drubbing in these 
elections will by no means signify the end of the Ahern 
government, it could hasten a cabinet shake-up this summer. 
Public irritation with the government centers on its 
struggles to deliver adequate health care services, 
education, public transportation and infrastructure and 
policing. 
 
 
Irish Interests in the EU Presidency 
------------------------------------ 
 
4.   (C)  On a happier note for Ahern, the PM has won kudos 
throughout the EU for competent management of difficult 
issues facing the Union, including repairing the 
TransAtlantic relationship, the accession of ten new member 
states, valiant attempts at a Cyprus settlement, responding 
to the terror attacks in Madrid, and talks to negotiate a 
European Constitution.  The Irish government prides itself on 
being the bridge between "Boston and Berlin", and Ahern will 
reiterate that one of his top priorities is strengthening 
U.S.-EU ties.  The relationship is indeed in much better 
shape than it was six months ago, and Ireland will continue 
to push for reduced trade and investment barriers, and closer 
U.S.-EU coordination on Iraq and the Arab-Israeli conflict. 
However, the Irish are also strong multilateralists, and 
Ahern will urge the fullest possible UN engagement in Iraq 
and the Middle East.  Ireland has a history of development 
assistance to Africa, due to a long tradition of missionary 
work, and Ahern will be particularly pleased to oversee a 
joint statement on HIV-AIDS cooperation.  Finally, Ahern is 
likely to briefly raise ITER, following up on a promise to 
French President Chirac during his recent visit to Dublin. 
 
Trade and Investment 
-------------------- 
 
5.   (SBU)  Our bilateral commercial relationship is 
impressive.  U.S. investment in Ireland is approximately USD 
42 billion, with over 550 companies employing close to 
100,000 Irish workers.  Information technology, 
pharmaceuticals, biotechnology and financial services are the 
big investors here, with most of the Fortune 500 firms 
represented.  A well-educated, English-speaking workforce 
with an American-style work ethic and legal system are major 
factors, in addition to the low corporate tax rate of 12 
percent.  Ireland is the ninth largest foreign investor in 
the United States (USD 30 billion) and employs some 40,000 
Americans. 
 
6.   (SBU)  Ireland is anxious to maintain its favored 
investment status with the U.S. in the newly-expanded EU, as 
former Eastern European countries adopt the successful Irish 
model.  As a result, the Irish are aggressively working to 
move up the value-added chain into higher-end R&D programs to 
remain competitive. 
 
Counterterrorism Measures 
------------------------- 
 
7.   (SBU)  Ireland has tough laws to counter domestic 
terrorism, due to the legacy of paramilitary activity in the 
Northern Ireland conflict.  The Irish and British governments 
have excellent cooperation in cracking down on dissident 
republican paramilitary groups across the entire island.  In 
2003, the Irish -- with help from an FBI informant -- 
successfully prosecuted their first case of "leadership in a 
terrorist organization", jailing the leader of the Real IRA. 
 
8.   (C)  Unfortunately, legislation to criminalize 
international terrorism has been hung up in the Irish 
Parliament for over two years.  Ireland is party to five of 
the twelve UN Conventions Against Terorrism, but human rights 
concerns have stalled movement on legislation to allow 
Ireland to become party to the remaining seven.  The GOI 
hopes to push the legislation through the Parliament by the 
time of the Summit, but this appears unlikely.  Negotiations 
on a protocol to harmonize the U.S.-Irish Mutual Legal 
Assistance Treaty (MLAT) with the U.S.-EU MLAT appear poised 
for completion by the end of June. 
 
Peacekeeping 
------------ 
 
9.   (C)  Irish Defense Forces are currently deployed to 
Kosovo, Afghanistan, Lebanon, and Liberia, where Ireland is 
the largest non-African contingency.  The Irish Government 
recently took the decision to extend the ISAF and UNIFIL 
missions, for which Ahern should be congratulated.  There are 
no Irish forces in Iraq; under Irish law, troops cannot be 
deployed without a UN-authorized mission.  You should probe 
Ahern on his willingness to  send Irish peacekeepers to Iraq 
under a UN mandate.  There would be strong resistance from 
the Parliament and the public, but this is an opportunity for 
Ireland to reaffirm its belief in the primacy of the United 
Nations by contributing to a multinational force. 
 
Northern Ireland 
---------------- 
 
10.   (SBU)  Elections in November 2003 to the suspended 
Northern Ireland Assembly put the Democratic Unionist Party 
(DUP) and Sinn Fein as the largest parties, but did not bring 
the restoration of devolved government.  The DUP refuses to 
enter into government with Sinn Fein until the Irish 
Republican Army (IRA) ends all paramilitary activity. 
Despite tremendous demands on British PM Blair and Irish PM 
Ahern, the two leaders have dedicated enormous personal time 
and effort to try to put together a deal to restart the 
political process.  Under discussion is further 
decommissioning of IRA weapons, a political decision by 
republicans to end IRA paramilitary activity, Sinn Fein 
agreement to support the reformed Police Service of Northern 
Ireland, HMG delivery on demilitarization and devolution of 
security and justice functions, and DUP agreement to enter 
into negotations with Sinn Fein. 
 
11.   (SBU)  A non-violent summer of sectarian marches will 
be critical to the success of this effort, as will a second 
report this fall from the International Monitoring Commission 
-- a four member body of officials from Ireland, Northern 
Ireland, Britain, and the United States.  (Former CIA Deputy 
Director Richard Kerr is the U.S. member.)  The Commission, 
charged by the governments with monitoring and reporting on 
abuses of the Good Friday Agreement, issued its first report 
in April, in which it criticized republican and loyalist 
paramilitary groups for illegal activities. 
 
12.   (SBU)  Embassies Dublin and London, Consulate General 
Belfast, and your Special Envoy Mitchell Reiss have continued 
to facilitate dialogue among political leaders in Dublin, 
London, and Belfast.  We also continue to contribute to the 
International Fund for Ireland, a British-Irish project to 
generate employment and training in the neglected border 
areas and sectarian neighborhoods in Belfast, Derry and other 
cities, and to provide alternatives to joining illegal 
paramilitary groups. 
 
Shannon Airport 
--------------- 
 
13.   (SBU)  Shannon airport, in the west of Ireland, is an 
important gateway for U.S. commercial and military travel. 
We have a long-standing arrangement with the GOI whereby U.S. 
military aircraft land and refuel at Shannon, en route to the 
Gulf, Afghanistan, etc.   This policy was, and remains, the 
focal point of anti-war protestors who view this as a 
violation of Irish neutrality.  We appreciate the GOI's 
continued support, and steps it has taken to ensure the 
security of the nearly 126,000 U.S. forces who passed through 
Shannon in 2003. 
 
14.   (C)  The commercial use of Shannon by U.S. carriers is 
also a sensitive issue, as we negotiate a U.S.-EU Open Skies 
agreement which will see the phase-out of the "Shannon 
stopover", which currently forces half of U.S. flights to 
land at Shannon prior to traveling on to Dublin.  The Shannon 
airport authority and Shannon-area tourism industries insist 
the elimination of this requirement will be disastrous for 
the region's development and the airport's viability; 
TransAtlantic passenger and cargo traffic currently account 
for 40 percent of the airport's total annual revenues.  We 
believe these concerns can be addressed through smart 
marketing of products and services, and Open Skies talks will 
benefit both U.S. and Irish carriers by adding new routes in 
Ireland and the U.S., respectively. 
 
Travel and Security 
--------------------- 
 
15.   (SBU)  Approximately 900,000 Americans travel to 
Ireland each year for business and tourism, and over 300,00 
Irish visit the United States.  The implementation of the 
US-VISIT program at pre-clearance immigration facilities at 
Shannon and Dublin airports has been extremely smooth, in 
part because Ireland is on the Visa Waiver Program and most 
Irish travelers do not yet have to be fingerprinted.  Ireland 
is one of the few EU countries on track to meet the October 
24, 2004 deadline for introducing passports with biometric 
identifiers, an effort worth acknowledging. 
FORT