US embassy cable - 04ABUJA1012

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 001012 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/07/2014 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, PTER, PHUM, ELAB, NI 
SUBJECT: NLC PLANS GENERAL STRIKE TO BEGIN JUNE 9 
 
REF: ABUJA 1009 
 
Classified By: CDA Rick L. Roberts.  Reasons 1.5 (B & D). 
 
1.  (SBU) Summary:  The Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC) has 
announced a 21-day general strike to begin June 9 against the 
latest increase in the price of gasoline.  Less than twelve 
hours until its deadline, numerous organizations are 
supporting the strike even as efforts are under way to 
resolve the dispute.  The NLC has said that there is "no 
going back" from what it terms the "mother of all strikes" 
except reducing the price of gasoline, while the GON says the 
strike would be "threatening Nigeria's nascent democracy." 
The strike may peter out the first or second day, but if it 
takes hold the most likely course would be to start small and 
grow larger.  The unions have reportedly threatened to cut 
oil production/exports under the strike, but that and threats 
to shut down air traffic may only be rhetoric.  End Summary. 
 
ALL IN FAVOR? 
------------- 
 
2.  (SBU) The NLC announced a 21-day general strike beginning 
tomorrow, June 9, to protest against higher fuel prices. Its 
leader, Adams Oshiomhole, promised this would be the "mother 
of all strikes," saying the only way to avert the action is 
for the GON to roll back the price of gasoline.  The NLC has 
announced several strikes in the past year, only for each one 
to be averted due to last-minute "compromises."  The July 
2003 strike actually took place, but then was suspended when 
the GON agreed to hold the price of gasoline to 34 Naira per 
liter.  The GON has since raised the ceiling three times and 
now gasoline is selling for over 50 Naira per liter in Abuja 
and Lagos (130 Naira=1 USD). 
 
3.  (C) Dissent within labor's ranks is causing confusion on 
the strike.  Most NLC leaders no longer trust Oshiomhole, who 
is said to have taken 100 million Naira from the GON to call 
off the last strike.  The NLC has barred him from direct 
participation in any negotiation with the GON, and this ban 
appears to have garnered support from among other civil and 
political groups.  An NLC organizer told poloff that plans 
are in place and the strike will commence "as scheduled." 
The Lagos State NLC Chairman said measures have been taken to 
ensure the strike in Lagos is complete, and anyone wishing to 
leave Lagos should do so before midnight tonight, June 8. 
 
4.  (U) Many unions not directly affiliated with the NLC have 
offered their support, including the National Union of Banks, 
Insurance and Financial Institutions Employees (NUBIFIE), the 
Association of Senior Staff of Banks, Insurance and Financial 
Institutions (ASSIBIFI), the National Union of Road Transport 
Workers (NURTW).  Their members have been directed to clear 
all roads by midnight June 8 and remain at home during the 
strike.   The Trade Union Congress (TUC) and the Congress of 
Free Trade Unions (CFTU) also gave the GON a seven-day 
ultimatum to rescind the price hike when they announced 
support for the strike. 
 
5.  (U) The opposition Conference of Nigerian Political 
Parties (CNPP) and Constitutional Rights Project (CRP) all 
threw their support behind the strike, bringing in 
heavyweight political actors such as Balarabe Musa, Gani 
Fawehinmi, Wole Soyinka, Muhammadu Buhari and Chukwuemeka 
Ojukwu.  The All Nigerian People's Party (ANPP), saying that 
three weeks was not enough time to change the GON, called for 
the strike to last six months. 
 
6.  (U) The Christian Association of Nigeria (CAN) has 
announced that it supports the strike, to identify with the 
"suffering of Nigerians."  The National Association of 
Nigerian Students (NANS) announced that it supported the 
strike and that it would defend strikers against "saboteurs" 
who would disrupt the strike.  (Note: It is also quite likely 
that a successful strike would be enforced by "area boys," 
gangs for hire like the Oodua Peoples Congress.  End Note.) 
The Academic Staff Union of Universities (ASUU) and the 
Christian Association of Nigeria (CAN) have also announced 
support for the strike. 
 
ON THE OTHER SIDE 
----------------- 
 
7.  (U) President Obasanjo, on his way to the G8 Sea Island 
Summit, told reporters that the GON would hold talks with and 
engage dialogue in an effort to resolve the issue.  However, 
he tempered his nice words with a certain amount of vitriolic 
spice, "Where it is needed, we will dialogue; when necessary, 
we will explain our actions."  While calling on Nigerians to 
remain peaceful, he threatened to use "all available force" 
to stop the strike. 
 
8.  (U) Striking a similar chord, Vice President Atiku 
Abubakar called the NLC strike a threat to Nigeria's "nascent 
democracy."  National Chairman of the ruling People's 
Democratic Party (PDP) Audu Ogbeh earlier strongly opposed 
the strike, pleading that it's not too late for dialogue, but 
termed the strike announcement "a declaration of war" by the 
NLC.  Ogbeh warned the NLC not to "challenge Obasanjo, who 
was a military man and will respond with force." 
 
9.  (SBU) The Crude Oil and Products Traders Association of 
Nigeria (COPTAN) and the Petroleum Pricing and Marketing 
Committee (PPMC) pleaded with the NLC to allow the fuel price 
deregulation policy, claiming it would provide a long-term 
benefit for the populace.  (NOTE:  The chairman of the PPMC, 
Rasheed Gbadamosi, is himself a petroleum marketer who 
controls a portion of the country's imports and owns over 100 
tanker trucks personally.  END NOTE.)  Talks between union 
representatives and other interested parties continue under 
various auspices, including the Senate and the governors. 
 
POTENTIAL INTERNATIONAL IMPACT 
------------------------------ 
 
10.  (U) The National Union of Air Transport Employees 
(NUATE) has written to foreign embassies asking their 
countries' airlines not to fly into Nigerian airspace during 
the strike.  According to NUATE, any foreign airline 
operating into the country within the period will be doing so 
at its own risk, as its air traffic controllers will not be 
on duty to clear them.  The GON's Nigerian Airspace 
Management Agency (NAMA), however, insists that control 
towers at all airports will be adequately staffed. 
 
11.  (C) The two oil unions, NUPENG in the NLC and PENGASSEN 
in the TUC, have both reportedly threatened that the strike 
will include crude oil production/exporting.  It remains to 
be seen if this and the NUATE threat go beyond rhetoric. 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
12.  (C)  COMMENT: The NLC leadership, at levels under 
Oshiomhole, are determined and there is widespread anger 
among Nigerians that could become support for the strike. 
Skepticism over Oshiomhole's previous performances is 
understandably high, however, and the GON had little 
difficulty squashing the CNPP's threatened "mass action" in 
May.  It is unclear whether the NLC strike will take or die 
out quickly, but it is likely that the morning of June 9 will 
see empty streets in Abuja.  Nigerians may choose to remain 
at home June 9, either in support of the strike or in fear 
for their safety if they venture out.  If the strike survives 
day one, more people will be likely to join by June 10, but 
it is unclear which services will suffer.  Post EAC has met 
to make appropriate preparations (reftel). 
ROBERTS