US embassy cable - 04MADRID2144

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MADRID 002144 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/07/2014 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, SP, EUN, PSOE - Socialist Party 
SUBJECT: SPANISH EU ELECTIONS - LOOKING FOR AFFIRMATION OR 
REDEMPTION 
 
 
Classified By: Kathleen Fitzpatrick, Political Counselor, for Reasons 1 
.4 (b) and (d) 
 
1. (C) The Spanish political scene is now focused on the June 
13 European Parliamentary elections.  Because of EU 
enlargement, Spain will elect 54 members, down from the 64 
seats it received in 1999.  With the EU elections coming only 
three months after the surprising March general elections, 
the two main parties have been in almost continuous campaign 
mode this year.  The Socialist Party (PSOE) is looking for a 
win that will reaffirm its March 14 showing and, in their 
opinion, demonstrate that its victory was not just a reaction 
to the March 11 terrorist attacks.  The Popular Party (PP) is 
striving to redeem itself, reinvigorate its base and position 
the party for a return to power. 
 
2. (C) Spain's two largest parties hold 51 of its 64 current 
European Parliamentary seats, the PP having won 27 seats in 
1999 and the PSOE capturing 24.  The United Left (Communist) 
won 4 seats, with regional and nationalist parties taking the 
remaining 9.  One seat was held by the Basque nationalist 
party, Euskal Herritarak, which was later declared illegal 
for its ties to the terrorist group ETA.  Another Basque 
party, Herritarren Zerrenda, was barred from running in this 
year's EU election by the Spanish Supreme Court, which ruled 
that it was the successor to Euskal Herritarak and also 
linked to ETA and the banned political party, Batasuna. 
 
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The Main Candidates 
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3. (U) Leading the list of PSOE candidates is Josep Borrell. 
Borrell, 57, served as the Minister of Public Works and 
Transportation in the last Socialist government from 1991 to 
1996.  He was in the running to be the PSOE's candidate for 
President of the Government in 1998-99, until he voluntarily 
withdrew from consideration after two of his associates were 
implicated in a financial corruption controversy. 
 
4. (U) The PP's list is headed by Jaime Mayor Oreja, a 
53-year old agricultural engineer with a long history of 
involvement in Basque region politics and who is well known 
throughout Spain.  Mayor Oreja served as the Interior 
Minister during much of the Aznar administration.  He has 
been a candidate for president (lehendakari) of the Basque 
autonomous region on three occasions.  Polls show that while 
Mayor Oreja enjoys greater name recognition than Borrell, 
Borrell has greater support among Spanish voters. 
 
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PSOE Themes - Return to Europe; Anti-Iraq and Bush 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
 
5. (C) The Socialists have framed their campaign around the 
idea of returning Spain back to a European focus, rather than 
what they criticize as the overly pro-American policies of 
the Aznar administration.  Their campaign theme, "We Return 
to Europe", fits with President Zapatero's repeated 
statements that Spain had become too aligned with the United 
States, and that while not anti-American, the Socialists 
intend to return Spain to the core of Europe and the 
"Europeanist" movement. 
 
6. (C) Borrell and other PSOE leaders tout two main policy 
changes as proof of the Socialist government's pro-European 
focus: the return of Spanish troops from Iraq and the new 
Spanish commitment to support the proposed EU Constitution, 
including acceptance of the double-majority voting system 
(though they continue to negotiate the percentages the system 
will use). 
 
7. (C) Though members of the Socialist government frequently 
state that this new European focus is not anti-American, and 
that they intend to maintain a strong trans-Atlantic 
relationship, the PSOE campaign continues to demonize U.S. 
policies in Iraq and the PP for the Aznar government's 
support of American objectives.  Borrell has stated that 
terrorism and problems in the Middle East are linked to Bush 
administration policies and to the U.S.'s "unequivocal 
support" of Israeli Prime Minister Sharon.  Alvaro Cuesta, a 
PSOE party secretary, accused the PP under Aznar of 
"receiving instructions from Washington" to disseminate "Bush 
administration propaganda", and that the PP is an affiliate 
of the U.S. Republican Party.  Cuesta stated that the PSOE 
will push for a Europe less dependent on the United States, 
and Borrell has said that he desires a European Union that is 
capable of intervening in global problems and can act as a 
counterweight to U.S. power.  Borrell has specifically 
criticized the PP for aligning itself with the "least 
Europeanist" EU members and for only viewing the EU as a 
common market. 
 
8. (C) Zapatero, however, has been able to take a more 
"statesmanlike" line, allowing Borrell and others to deliver 
the punches. 
 
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PP - Strong in Europe 
------------------------------- 
 
9. (C) The Popular Party counters with allegations that the 
Socialists have surrendered Spain's bargaining chips in its 
headlong rush to prove its Europeanist credentials 
(especially in what the PP views as a precipitous statement 
that Spain would approve the EU Constitution) and that the 
PSOE will not defend Spanish national interests.  The PP 
chose "With You, Strong in Europe" as its election theme, 
proposing that they are the party who will protect Spanish 
national interests inside the EU and will forceful combat 
terrorism. 
 
10. (C) Mayor Oreja has criticized the PSOE for trying to 
convert the EU elections into a "referendum on Iraq" and that 
Borrell was trying to "make Baghdad the capital of Europe". 
The PP campaign stresses that they are looking to protect 
Spanish influence and voting power in the EU and to press for 
strong common policies to fight terrorism.  They dispute the 
PSOE's claim that they are "euroskeptics", stating that they 
have enhanced Spain's stature and influence in the EU, and 
frame the PSOE as making Spain subservient to France and 
Germany. 
 
11. (C) The PP also criticizes the PSOE government for bowing 
to the nationalist parties in Spain, as they claim is evident 
in the Zapatero government's proposal in May to have Spanish 
minority languages (Euskera, Catalan and Gallego) included as 
official languages of the EU.  They claim that a PSOE win on 
June 13 will only strengthen the nationalist movements. 
 
12. (C) After the demoralizing surprise defeat in March, 
Mayor Oreja has said that the PP needs a good showing in the 
EU elections to "avoid the isolation of the Popular Party", 
to "bring back hope to 9 million plus voters" and to avoid a 
long cycle of Socialist rule.  He has also noted in several 
speeches the fact that Borrell had to leave politics in 1999 
because of his links to corruption. 
 
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The Polls 
---------------------- 
 
13. (U) Surveys forecast the Socialists winning by 6 to 9 
percentage points, which would give them 25-27 seats, 
compared to 21-22 for the Popular Party.  The leading 
newspaper, El Pais, found 43% of poll respondents favoring 
the PSOE versus 37% for the PP.  The Center for Sociological 
Studies (CIS) projects the PSOE winning with a 46% to 37% 
margin.  Of interest in the surveys, 70% of respondents said 
that the Zapatero government's withdrawal of troops from Iraq 
would influence their vote, with 86% of those influenced 
saying they would vote for the PSOE.  Only 6% of those 
influenced said that the troop withdrawal would lead them to 
vote for the PP.  Also, though split when asked who had 
traditionally defended Spanish interests in the EU (PSOE- 
32%, PP- 31%), when asked who would defend Spanish interests 
best in the future, respondents chose the PSOE by a margin of 
41% to 15%.  On overall foreign policy, 72% stated that they 
thought this government's policy would be better than the 
Aznar administration's. 
ARGYROS