US embassy cable - 01SOFIA3033

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 SOFIA 003033 
 
BELGRADE FOR DAS SWIGERT 
 
E.O. 12958:  N/A 
TAGS:  PGOV, BU 
SUBJECT:  BULGARIAN ELECTIONS:  PRELIMINARY RESULTS 
 
REFS:  A) SOFIA 2949, B) SOFIA 2903, C) SOFIA 2950 
 
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SUMMARY 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
PAGE 02        SOFIA  03033  01 OF 03  180953Z 
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1.  PRELIMINARY RESULTS OF BULGARIA'S JUNE 17 ELECTIONS 
SHOW A COMMANDING LEAD FOR THE NATIONAL MOVEMENT SIMEON 
II, WITH AN OUTRIGHT MAJORITY IN PARLIAMENT SEEMINGLY 
LIKELY BUT NOT YET ASSURED.  THE UDF OF PM KOSTOV HAS 
SUFFERED A SERIOUS DEFEAT, AND HE IS EXPECTED TO RESIGN 
AS PARTY LEADER SHORTLY.  THE SOCIALISTS AND THE ETHNIC 
TURKISH MRF DID SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN EXPECTED.  A FIFTH 
POLITICAL GROUPING, GERGYOVDEN-VMRO, FELL JUST SHORT OF 
THE NECESSARY FOUR PERCENT OF THE VOTE TO ENTER 
PARLIAMENT, BUT MAY REQUEST A RECOUNT.  FINAL RESULTS 
ARE EXPECTED ON JUNE 20, BUT TALK OF POSSIBLE 
COALITIONS HAS ALREADY BEGUN.  END SUMMARY. 
 
------------------- 
PRELIMINARY RESULTS 
------------------- 
 
2.  WITH OVER 99 PERCENT OF PRECINCTS REPORTING, THE 
NATIONAL MOVEMENT SIMEON II (NMS2), POLITICAL VEHICLE 
OF THE FORMER TSAR, HAS A COMMANDING LEAD IN ELECTIONS 
TO BULGARIA'S 240-SEAT UNICAMERAL NATIONAL ASSEMBLY. 
BALLOTS CAST ABROAD HAVE NOT YET BEEN COUNTED AND 
OFFICIAL RESULTS ARE NOT EXPECTED UNTIL WEDNESDAY, JUNE 
20, BUT IF THESE NUMBERS HOLD UP, NMS2 WILL PROBABLY 
HAVE AN OUTRIGHT MAJORITY (SUBJECT TO THE VAGARIES OF 
BULGARIA'S 31-DISTRICT PROPORTIONAL REPRESENTATION 
SYSTEM). 
 
3.  PRELIMINARY RESULTS ANNOUNCED BY THE CENTRAL 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
PAGE 03        SOFIA  03033  01 OF 03  180953Z 
ELECTION COMMISSION EARLY ON THE MORNING OF JUNE 18 ARE 
AS FOLLOWS (A PARTY OR COALITION MUST RECEIVE 4 PERCENT 
OF THE VOTE NATIONWIDE TO ENTER PARLIAMENT): 
 
PARTY       PCT.     SEATS (ESTIMATED) 
-----      -----     ----- 
NMS2       43.05      121 
UDF        18.24       51 
BSP        17.35       48 
MRF         6.75       20 
GER-VMRO    3.67        0 
 
4.  BASED ON THESE FIGURES, FOUR COALITIONS ARE CERTAIN 
TO ENTER THE NEW PARLIAMENT:  NMS2; THE UNITED 
DEMOCRATIC FORCES (UTDDF) LED BY OUTGOING PM IVAN 
KOSTOV'S UNION OF DEMOCRATIC FORCES (UDF); THE 
COALITION FOR BULGARIA LED BY THE BULGARIAN SOCIALIST 
PARTY (BSP); AND THE MRF-LIBERAL-EUROROMA COALITION LED 
BY THE PREDOMINANTLY ETHNIC-TURKISH MOVEMENT FOR RIGHTS 
AND FREEDOMS (MRF).  THE FATE OF THE FIFTH COALITION, 
GERGYOVDEN-VMRO, AND WITH IT A POSSIBLE NMS2 OUTRIGHT 
MAJORITY, HANGS IN THE BALANCE. 
 
5.  COMMENT:  THE NMS2 VICTORY WOULD HAVE BEEN EVEN 
MORE RESOUNDING WERE IT NOT FOR VOTER CONFUSION.  TWO 
FRINGE COALITIONS UNAFFILIATED WITH THE TSAR ADDED THE 
WORDS "SIMEON II" TO THEIR NAMES, AND MANAGED TO GRAB 
MORE THAN 5 PERCENT OF THE VOTE BETWEEN THEM (ONE CAME 
WITHIN HALF A PERCENT OF ENTERING PARLIAMENT!).  IN 
OTHER WORDS, ALMOST 50 PERCENT OF VOTERS TRIED TO CAST 
THEIR BALLOTS FOR SIMEON.  END COMMENT. 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
PAGE 04        SOFIA  03033  01 OF 03  180953Z 
 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
VOTING FREE AND FAIR AT HOME, PROBLEMATIC ABROAD 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
 
6.  THE OSCE ELECTION OBSERVATION MISSION WILL HOLD A 
PRESS CONFERENCE LATER TODAY (JUNE 18).  BASED ON MEDIA 
ACCOUNTS AND THE REPORTS OF EMBASSY PERSONNEL WHO 
PARTICIPATED IN THE OBSERVATION EFFORT, THERE WERE NO 
SERIOUS IRREGULARITIES IN BULGARIA ITSELF.  COMPLAINTS 
HAVE BEEN MADE, HOWEVER, ABOUT THE CONDUCT OF THE 
ELECTION ABROAD.  THESE CONCERN MAINLY A LACK OF 
ORGANIZATION AND INSUFFICIENT QUANTITIES OF BALLOT 
PAPERS AT POLLING PLACES IN TURKEY, SPAIN, GERMANY AND 
ELSEWHERE. 
 
--------------------- 
HARD LOSS FOR THE UDF 
--------------------- 
 
7.  THE UDF DID SOMEWHAT WORSE THAN EXPECTED, AND CAME 
PERILOUSLY CLOSE TO FALLING PAST THE BSP INTO THIRD 
PLACE OVERALL.  NMS2 BEAT UDF IN EVERY REGION, 
INCLUDING THE PARTY'S TRADITIONAL STRONGHOLDS SOFIA AND 
PLOVDIV.  TO MAKE THE PILL EVEN MORE BITTER FOR PM 
 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
                           UNCLASSIFIED     PTQ3628 
 
PAGE 01        SOFIA  03033  02 OF 03  180954Z 
ACTION EUR-00 
 
INFO  LOG-00   NP-00    AID-00   CIAE-00  SMEC-00  DODE-00  SRPP-00 
      DS-00    FBIE-00  UTED-00  VC-00    H-01     TEDE-00  INR-00 
      IO-00    LAB-01   L-00     VCE-00   AC-01    NRRC-00  NSAE-00 
      NSCE-00  OMB-01   OPIC-01  PA-00    PM-00    PRS-00   ACE-00 
      P-00     SCT-00   SP-00    SSO-00   TEST-00  TRSE-00  USIE-00 
      IIP-00   SNIS-00  NISC-00  PMB-00   DSCC-00  PRM-01   DRL-02 
      G-00     SAS-00     /008W 
                  ------------------FA09EF  180954Z /38 
O 180926Z JUN 01 
FM AMEMBASSY SOFIA 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0474 
INFO EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE 
AMEMBASSY BELGRADE 
USOFFICE PRISTINA 
 
UNCLAS SECTION 02 OF 03 SOFIA 003033 
 
BELGRADE FOR DAS SWIGERT 
 
E.O. 12958:  N/A 
TAGS:  PGOV, BU 
SUBJECT:  BULGARIAN ELECTIONS:  PRELIMINARY RESULTS 
 
KOSTOV, UDF TOOK SECOND PLACE IN ONLY 11 OF BULGARIA'S 
31 ELECTORAL REGIONS, AND WAS BEATEN INTO FOURTH PLACE 
IN THREE OF THEM:  SILISTRA, TARGOVISHTE AND SHUMEN. 
THE BOTTOM LINE:  FOUR YEARS AGO THE UDF COALITION WON 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
PAGE 02        SOFIA  03033  02 OF 03  180954Z 
125 SEATS IN PARLIAMENT; NOW IT WILL HAVE 51. 
 
8.  KOSTOV CONCEDED DEFEAT AND IS EXPECTED TO TENDER 
HIS RESIGNATION AS PARTY LEADER SHORTLY, ALTHOUGH HE 
MAY WELL STAND FOR THAT POST AGAIN.  IN CONGRATULATING 
SIMEON, KOSTOV SAID HE EXPECTS NMS2 TO CONTINUE TO 
IMPLEMENT NECESSARY BUT PAINFUL REFORMS INITIATED BY 
HIS ADMINISTRATION.  BECAUSE OF THESE REFORMS, KOSTOV 
CONCLUDED, THE UDF LOST THE CONFIDENCE OF VOTERS BUT 
BULGARIA WON THE CONFIDENCE OF THE WORLD:  "WE BUILT AN 
INTERNATIONAL REPUTATION, AND A GOOD BASIS FOR EUROPEAN 
AND EURO-ATLANTIC INTEGRATION." 
 
------------------------------------------ 
MRF BOUNCES BACK; GERGYOVDEN-VMRO IN LIMBO 
------------------------------------------ 
 
9.  THE MAINLY ETHNIC TURKISH MRF BOUNCED BACK STRONGLY 
IN THE LATTER STAGES OF THE CAMPAIGN, AND DID BETTER 
THAN MOST POLLSTERS HAD EXPECTED.  IN FACT, THE MRF WAS 
THE ONLY PARTY TO DO BETTER THAN NMS2 IN ANY REGION: 
IT WON A MAJORITY IN KURDZHALI AND A PLURALITY IN 
RAZGRAD, BOTH DISTRICTS WITH LARGE ETHNIC TURKISH 
POPULATIONS AND IN WHICH NMS2 DID NOT CAMPAIGN 
ACTIVELY.  IT APPEARS THERE WAS VERY HEAVY VOTING IN 
TURKEY AS WELL, WITH PEOPLE STANDING IN LINE AS LONG AS 
SIX HOURS AT POLLING STATIONS IN ISTANBUL AND 
ELSEWHERE, ACCORDING TO PRESS REPORTS. 
 
10.  PENDING THE RELEASE OF FINAL RESULTS, THE 
COALITION OF TWO MILDLY NATIONALIST FORMATIONS -- THE 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
PAGE 03        SOFIA  03033  02 OF 03  180954Z 
GERGYOVDEN MOVEMENT AND THE INTERNAL MACEDONIAN 
REVOLUTIONARY ORGANIZATION (VMRO) -- REMAINS IN LIMBO. 
EARLY RETURNS SHOWED THEM ABOVE THE FOUR PERCENT 
THRESHOLD FOR ENTRY TO PARLIAMENT, BUT BY EARLY MONDAY 
MORNING IT APPEARED THEY HAD FALLEN OUT OF CONTENTION. 
GERGYOVDEN LEADER LYUBEN DILOV JR. SUGGESTED HE MIGHT 
DEMAND A HAND RECOUNT.  IF THE RESULTS STAND AND 
GERGYOVDEN-VMRO DOES NOT GET INTO PARLIAMENT, AN 
OUTRIGHT MAJORITY FOR NMS2 APPEARS LIKELY. 
 
11.  COMMENT:  THE MRF, FOR ITS PART, CLAWED ITS WAY 
BACK FROM THE EDGE OF POLITICAL OBLIVION, AND PARTY 
LEADER AHMED DOGAN MUST BE BREATHING A SIGH OF RELIEF 
AND RELISHING THE PROSPECT OF THUMBING HIS NOSE AT 
KOSTOV FROM A LIKELY POSITION INSIDE THE GOVERNMENT. 
GERGYOVDEN-VMRO, MEANWHILE, IF IT FAILS TO REACH FOUR 
PERCENT, WILL PROBABLY SPLIT INTO ITS CONSTITUENT 
PARTS.  VMRO -- WITH A LONG HISTORY, COHERENT IDEOLOGY 
AND REPRESENTATION ON SEVERAL MUNICIPAL COUNCILS -- 
WILL PROBABLY SOLDIER ON AT THE FRINGES OF POWER. 
GERGYOVDEN -- A MUCH LOOSER FORMATION THAT COUNTED ON 
THE PROTEST VOTE SUBSEQUENTLY VACUUMED UP BY SIMEON -- 
IS MORE LIKELY TO FADE SLOWLY AWAY.  END COMMENT. 
 
----------------- 
WHAT HAPPENS NOW? 
----------------- 
 
12.  UNDER THE BULGARIAN CONSTITUTION, THE NEW 
PARLIAMENT MUST ASSEMBLE WITHIN ONE MONTH.  PRESIDENT 
STOYANOV IS OBLIGED TO OFFER THE NMS2, AS TOP VOTE- 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
PAGE 04        SOFIA  03033  02 OF 03  180954Z 
GETTER, THE FIRST OPPORTUNITY TO FORM A GOVERNMENT. 
SPOKESMEN FOR SIMEON SAY THE TSAR HAS NOT DECIDED 
WHETHER TO SEEK THE POST OF PRIME MINISTER.  THE NMS2 
LEADER IN PLOVDIV AND POSSIBLE FUTURE FINANCE MINISTER 
MILEN VELCHEV SAID NMS2 WILL SEEK A BROAD COALITION 
WITH PARTIES THAT CAN SUPPORT THE FUNDAMENTAL ELEMENTS 
OF THE TSAR'S PROGRAM (REF A), BUT WILL NOT WORK WITH 
"CORRUPT OR DISCREDITED" INDIVIDUALS.  HE AND OTHER 
NMS2 REPRESENTATIVES STRESSED THAT THE NEW GOVERNMENT 
WILL PURSUE CONTINUITY IN FOREIGN POLICY, PARTICULARLY 
AS REGARDS MEMBERSHIP IN THE EU AND NATO AND STABILITY 
IN THE BALKANS. 
 
13.  SERIOUS COALITION NEGOTIATIONS ARE UNLIKELY UNTIL 
FINAL ELECTION RESULTS ARE ANNOUNCED, PROBABLY ON JUNE 
20.  IN THE MEANTIME, HOWEVER, FEELERS ARE ALREADY OUT. 
JUST DAYS BEFORE THE ELECTION, KOSTOV DECLARED THAT HE 
WOULD NOT ACCEPT A COALITION WITH NMS2.  AS THE RESULTS 
CAME IN SUNDAY NIGHT, HOWEVER, OTHER PARTY LEADERS LEFT 
THE DOOR OPEN.  UDF GENERAL SECRETARY EKATERINA 
MIKHAILOVA SAID THE UDF IS WILLING TO TALK ABOUT A 
COALITION WITH THE NMS2 IF THE LATTER INITIATES THE 
DISCUSSION, AND PROVIDED THAT SUCH A COALITION DOES NOT 
INCLUDE THE BSP.  FOR THEIR PARTS, THE LEADERS OF BOTH 
THE BSP AND MRF SAID THEY ARE PREPARED TO DISCUSS A 
 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
                           UNCLASSIFIED     PTQ3629 
 
PAGE 01        SOFIA  03033  03 OF 03  180954Z 
ACTION EUR-00 
 
INFO  LOG-00   NP-00    AID-00   CIAE-00  SMEC-00  DODE-00  SRPP-00 
      DS-00    FBIE-00  UTED-00  VC-00    H-01     TEDE-00  INR-00 
      IO-00    LAB-01   L-00     VCE-00   AC-01    NRRC-00  NSAE-00 
      NSCE-00  OMB-01   OPIC-01  PA-00    PM-00    PRS-00   ACE-00 
      P-00     SCT-00   SP-00    SSO-00   TEST-00  TRSE-00  USIE-00 
      IIP-00   SNIS-00  NISC-00  PMB-00   DSCC-00  PRM-01   DRL-02 
      G-00     SAS-00     /008W 
                  ------------------FA09F2  180954Z /38 
O 180926Z JUN 01 
FM AMEMBASSY SOFIA 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0475 
INFO EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE 
AMEMBASSY BELGRADE 
USOFFICE PRISTINA 
 
UNCLAS SECTION 03 OF 03 SOFIA 003033 
 
BELGRADE FOR DAS SWIGERT 
 
E.O. 12958:  N/A 
TAGS:  PGOV, BU 
SUBJECT:  BULGARIAN ELECTIONS:  PRELIMINARY RESULTS 
 
COALITION WITH NMS2. 
 
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COMMENT 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
PAGE 02        SOFIA  03033  03 OF 03  180954Z 
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14. WITH RESULTS STILL UNOFFICIAL AND A TSARIST 
MAJORITY NOT YET CERTAIN, THE ONLY THING THAT CAN BE 
SAFELY SAID ABOUT THE NEXT BULGARIAN GOVERNMENT IS THAT 
IT WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE NMS2.  REFTELS ADDRESS THE 
STATED PRIORITIES OF THE MOVEMENT (FOREIGN POLICY 
CONTINUITY, ACCELERATED ECONOMIC REFORM AND MORE 
ATTENTION TO SOCIAL NEEDS) AND THE DIFFICULTIES IT IS 
LIKELY TO FACE IN PURSUING THEM.  AS NOTED IN REF B, 
AND REITERATED BY NMS2 REPRESENTATIVES AS THE RESULTS 
CAME IN, THERE ARE NO PLANS TO SEEK A RESTORATION OF 
THE MONARCHY (AT LEAST FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE). 
 
15.  AS FOR THE OTHER PARTIES, THEY MUST LICK THEIR 
WOUNDS AND AWAIT A CALL FROM SIMEON.  THIS WAS A 
HUMILIATING DEFEAT FOR THE UDF, AND KOSTOV IS ALL BUT 
CERTAIN TO OFFER HIS RESIGNATION, BUT HIS RETURN TO THE 
HELM OF THE PARTY CANNOT BE RULED OUT.  MUCH MAY DEPEND 
ON HOW MUCH NMS2 WOULD BE PREPARED TO OFFER THE UDF TO 
BRING IT INTO A NEW GOVERNMENT (OR AT LEAST SECURE ITS 
SUPPORT ON KEY ITEMS OF SIMEON'S LEGISLATIVE AGENDA). 
 
16.  THE SOCIALISTS DID SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN EXPECTED, 
WHICH SHOULD BOLSTER THE POSITION OF THEIR REFORMIST 
CHAIRMAN GEORGI PURVANOV.  BUT THEY REMAINED BEHIND THE 
UDF, THE PARTY'S UNRECONSTRUCTED LEFT IS ALREADY 
CALLING FOR PURVANOV'S HEAD, AND THE PARTY COULD SPLIT. 
STILL, FEW IN THE BSP EXPECTED TO WIN THE ELECTION, AND 
THEY CAN TAKE SOLACE IN THE FACT THAT SIMEON ACHIEVED 
THEIR MAIN OBJECTIVE FOR THEM:  REMOVING KOSTOV AND 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
PAGE 03        SOFIA  03033  03 OF 03  180954Z 
COMPANY FROM POWER.  WHILE AN NMS2-BSP COALITION IS 
UNLIKELY, THE SOCIALISTS MAY STILL FIND COMMON GROUND 
WITH SIMEON ON ISSUES SUCH AS WAGE AND PENSION 
INCREASES, WHILE WORKING TO ESTABLISH THEMSELVES AS THE 
MOST CREDIBLE OPPOSITION PARTY.  (IN THAT CONNECTION, A 
SECONDARY RESULT OF THESE ELECTIONS IS THAT THE BSP 
FINDS ITSELF, FOR THE MOMENT AT LEAST, WITH NO SERIOUS 
COMPETITION ON THE POLITICAL LEFT:  THE BULGARIAN EURO- 
LEFT PARTY, WHICH HAD HOPED TO EMERGE AS A SOCIAL 
DEMOCRATIC ALTERNATIVE TO THE BSP, GOT JUST ONE PERCENT 
AND ITS LEADER, ALEXANDER TOMOV, PROMPTLY RESIGNED). 
 
MILES