US embassy cable - 87TUNIS11489

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 04 TUNIS 11489 
 
E.O. 12356: 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, TS 
SUBJECT:  BEN ALI AS PRIME MINISTER:  WHAT DOES IT MEAN? 
 
REF:  TUNIS 11130 
 
1.  SECRET - ENTIRE TEXT. 
 
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SUMMARY 
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2.  BOURGUIBA'S ABRUPT DISMISSAL OF SFAR AND 
ELEVATION OF INTERIOR MINISTER BEN ALI AGAIN 
DEMONSTRATES PRESIDENT BOURGUIBA'S PERSONAL CONTROL 
OF POWER IN TUNISIA.  BEN ALI'S APPOINTMENT PUTS A 
STRONG MAN IN THE PRIME MINISTRY AND A HEARTBEAT AWAY 
FROM THE PRESIDENCY.  IN GOVERNING, BEN ALI WILL HAVE 
SUPPORT FROM SOCIAL AFFAIRS MINISTER BACCOUCHE, CHIEF 
OF STAFF BARKETT AND PRESIDENTIAL COMPANION SAIDA 
SASSI.  ON THE OTHER HAND, BEN ALI WILL PROBABLY BE 
AT ODDS WITH PSD DIRECTOR MAHJOUB BEN ALI.  BEN ALI'S 
RAPPORT WITH EDUCATION MINISTER SAYAH DESERVES 
PARTICULAR ATTENTION.  ADDITIONAL CABINET CHANGES ARE 
WIDELY RUMORED--THE ECONOMIC MINISTRIES, JUSTICE, AND 
POSSIBLY DEFENSE AND FOREIGN AFFAIRS.  BEN ALI'S MOST 
DRAMATIC POLICY SIGNAL HAS BEEN A CALL FOR 
RESPONSIBLE DIALOGUE AND DIRECT CONTACT WHICH WAS 
FOLLOWED UP BY MEETINGS WITH HUMAN RIGHTS LEADERS. 
U.S. INTERESTS ARE WELL SERVED BY BEN ALI'S 
APPOINTMENT SINCE IT WILL ENHANCE STABILITY IN THE 
NEAR AND LONGER TERM.  WHILE HE IS NOT "AMERICA'S 
MAN,"  HE CARRIES NO IDEOLOGICAL BAGGAGE WHICH WOULD 
IMPEDE CLOSE WORKING RELATIONS.  U.S. INTERESTS ARE 
ALSO SERVED BY BEN ALI'S TENTATIVE OPENING TO CRITICS 
WHICH SHOULD BE ENCOURAGED.  END SUMMARY. 
 
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BOURGUIBA MAINTAINS CONTROL 
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3.  (NO FORN) - PRESIDENT BOURGUIBA HAS AGAIN 
DEMONSTRATED HIS PERSONAL CONTROL OF TUNISIAN 
POLITICS BY ABRUPTLY DISMISSING RACHID SFAR AND 
ELEVATING PRIME MINISTER BEN ALI (REFTEL) TO THE 
PRIME MINISTRY.  SFAR'S DISMISSAL WAS EXPLAINED LAST 
WEEK AS A RESULT OF PRESIDENTIAL DISSATISFACTION WITH 
THE FORMER PRIME MINISTER'S ATTEMPT TO DESIGNATE HIS 
CANDIDATE, ABDELMALEK AL 'ARIF, AS DIRECTOR OF THE 
RULING DESTOURIAN SOCIALIST PARTY (PSD).  THAT 
EXPLANATION HAS GAINED CREDIBILITY BY THE SUBSEQUENT 
REPORT IN A LEADING NEWSPAPER THAT BOURGUIBA AND SFAR 
FIRST CLASHED OVER APPOINTMENTS SEPT. 10 WHEN SFAR 
PROPOSED AL 'ARIF AS MINISTER OF INFORMATION, ONLY TO 
HAVE THE PRESIDENT OVERRULE HIM AND APPOINT 
ABDELWAHAB ABDULLAH TO THAT POST.  A SIRO SOURCE 
REPORTED THAT BOURGUIBA PROPOSED THE PRIME MINISTRY 
TO BEN ALI SEPT. 13 BUT THE LATTER RECOMMENDED THE 
CHANGE TAKE PLACE AFTER THE MTI TRIAL WHICH CONCLUDED 
SEPT. 27.  NEVERTHELESS, THE CHANGE ITSELF WAS 
HANDLED CLUMSILY WITH THE PRESIDENT PLACING HIMSELF 
IN THE EMBARRASSING POSITION OF APPROVING HIGH-LEVEL 
APPOINTMENTS ONE DAY--I.E PARTY CHIEF, MINISTER OF 
CULTURE ETC.--ONLY TO RETRACT THEM THE NEXT.  BY 
SEVERAL RELIABLE ACCOUNTS, THE PRESIDENT WAS ALSO 
EXTRAORDINARILY ABUSIVE TO FORMER PRIME MINISTER 
SFAR, AT THE CABINET MEETING SEPT. 30, WHO PROTESTED 
ALL ALONG THAT HE HAD ACTED WITH PRESIDENTIAL 
APPROVAL.  HENCE, THE PRESIDENT HAS SIMULTANEOUSLY 
REASSERTED PRESIDENTIAL PREROGATIVES WHILE RAISING 
QUESTIONS ABOUT HIS GRIP ON EVENTS. 
 
4.  LIKE HIS PREDECESSORS, BEN ALI'S RAPPORT WITH THE 
PRESIDENT WILL BE A CRUCIAL FACTOR IN HIS ABILITY TO 
GOVERN.  ON SECURITY ISSUES, HE HAS SHOWN A DEFT 
TOUCH -- E.G. OPPOSING THE CREATION OF MTI MARTYRS 
WITHOUT LOOSING CREDIBILITY.  BEN ALI'S FIRST 
OFFICIAL STATEMENT CAREFULLY ACKNOWLEDGED 
PRESIDENTIAL PREROGATIVES AND CHARACTERIZED THE PRIME 
MINISTER AS FIRST AMONG EQUALS IN SERVING THE 
PRESIDENT. 
 
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A STRONGMAN A HEARTBEAT AWAY 
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5.  UNLIKE SFAR, BEN ALI IS NOT VIEWED AS A 
TRANSITIONAL FIGURE.  ANY PRIME MINISTER SERVES AT 
THE PLEASURE OF THE PRESIDENT AND BOURGUIBA HAS NEVER 
TOLERATED A TRULY POWERFUL PRIME MINISTER IN THE 
PAST.  NEVERTHELESS BEN ALI'S TENURE IS MORE SECURE 
THAN HIS PREDECESSOR'S BECAUSE HE IS A PILLAR OF 
TUNISIA'S INTERNAL SECURITY ESTABLISHMENT -- NOT 
IRREPLACEABLE, BUT NOT EASILY REPLACED.  WITH BEN 
ALI'S APPOINTMENT, THE ENTIRE SUCCESSION PICTURE HAS 
OBVIOUSLY CHANGED.  INSTEAD OF A WEAK PROSPECTIVE 
PRESIDENT WHO WOULD HAVE INVITED CHALLENGES FROM 
POLITICAL OPPONENTS, THERE IS A STRONG AND VIGOROUS 
SUCCESSOR.  WHATEVER ELSE HAPPENS, THE INTERNAL 
SECURITY SITUATION IS NOT LIKELY TO GET OUT OF HAND 
AS LONG AS THERE IS NO OPEN SPLIT IN THE RULING 
ESTABLISHMENT. 
 
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ALLIES 
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4. BEN ALI'S ALLIES IN THE GOVERNMENT ARE STRONG AND 
WELL PLACED.  FIRST AND FOREMOST IS SOCIAL AFFAIRS 
MINISTER BACCOUCHE WHO ALSO COMES FROM HAMMAM SOUSSE 
AND IS AN OLD PERSONAL FRIEND.  BACCOUCHE IS PRESUMED 
TO BE BEN ALI'S PRIMARY POLITICAL ADVISOR.  AN ADROIT 
POLITICIAN, BACCOUCHE WAS PSD DIRECTOR (1983-86) AND 
IS CURRENTLY MANAGING TUNISIA'S NEGOTIATIONS WITH 
LIBYA AND THEIR IMPACT ON HER RELATIONS WITH ALGERIA 
AND MOROCCO.  BACCOUCHE'S MAJOR LIABILITY IS THE 
PRESIDENT'S ANTIPATHY FOR HIM WHICH STEMS IN PART AT 
LEAST FROM BACCOUCHE'S INDEPENDENT ATTITUDE AS PARTY 
DIRECTOR.  SECOND, CHIEF OF STAFF BARKETT THINKS 
HIGHLY OF BEN ALI AND HAS MAINTAINED REGULAR 
CONTACT.  INDEED, BARKETT WAS THE ONLY SENIOR 
MILITARY FIGURE WHO FAILED TO ATTEND A DINNER AT THE 
FRENCH EMBASSY ON THE EVE OF THE GOVERNMENT CHANGE, 
WHICH HAS PRODUCED SPECULATION THAT HE ALONE IN THE 
DEFENSE ESTABLISHMENT WAS INFORMED AND CONSULTED BY 
BEN ALI IN ADVANCE.  THIRD, PRESIDENTIAL COMPANION 
SAIDA SASSI WAS OBSERVED AS AN ALMOST DAILY VISITOR 
TO THE INTERIOR MINISTRY IN RECENT WEEKS.  SHE HAS 
EVEN PLACED PHONE CALLS FROM BEN ALI'S OFFICE.  BY 
SEVERAL ACCOUNTS, BEN ALI SUCCEEDED IN CONVINCING 
SASSI TO COUNSEL MODERATION TO THE PRESIDENT IN THE 
MTI TRIAL.  THE BEN ALI-SASSI CONNECTION DOES NOT 
APPEAR TO BE DEEPLY ROOTED AND MAY NOT ENDURE. 
 
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ADVERSARIES 
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6. BEN ALI HAS GENERALLY NOT ENGENDERED PERSONAL 
ANTIMOSITY.  NEVERTHELESS, HE HAS POLITICAL RIVALS 
AND PERSONAL ANTIPATHIES. THE NEW PSD DIRECTOR 
MAHJOUB BEN ALI IS THOUGHT TO BE ON A TOTALLY 
DIFFERENT WAVELENGTH THAN THE PRIME MINISTER.  PRIME 
MINISTER BEN ALI IS MORE SUBTLE AND SEES THE NUANCES 
OF A SITUATION.  PSD DIRECTOR BEN ALI IS A BLUNT 
INSTRUMENT.  MOREOVER, THE PSD'S NEWLY RE-ACTIVATED 
MILITIA'S ARE HELD IN CONTEMPT BY THE PROFESSIONAL 
SECURITY ESTABLISHMENT AND THERE HAVE ALREADY BEEN 
SEVERAL RELATIVELY MINOR CONFRONTATIONS BETWEEN THE 
TWO GROUPS.  PRESIDENT BOURGUIBA PRESUMABLY 
RECOGNIZED THE INCOMPATIBILITY AND NAMED MAHJOUB IN 
PART AS A COUNTERWEIGHT TO THE NEW PRIME MINISTER. 
PRIME MINISTER BEN ALI ALSO REPORTEDLY DISLIKES 
MINISTER OF TRANSPORT, HOUSING AND EQUIPMENT SKHIRI 
WHO HIMSELF ALMOST CERTAINLY ASPIRED TO HEAD THE 
GOVERNMENT.  SKHIRI HAS BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH 
CORRUPTION IN THE PAST AND HAS REPORTEDLY MISMANAGED 
HIS MINISTRY SO HE IS NOT IN A PARTICULARLY STRONG 
POSITION.  EDUCATION MINISTER SAYAH WOULD BE A MUCH 
MORE FORMIDABLE ADVERSARY GIVEN HIS PERSONAL RAPPORT 
WITH THE PRESIDENT (HE IS BOURGUIBA'S BIOGRAPHER) AND 
DEEP AND WIDE PARTY CONNECTIONS.  BECAUSE OF HIS 
POLITICAL SKILLS, SAYAH WAS FOR MANY THE LEADING 
CANDIDATE TO SUCCEED SFAR AND EVENTUALLY THE 
PRESIDENT HIMSELF.  HE NOW FINDS A FORMIDABLE 
OBSTACLE IN THE WAY OF THOSE AMBITIONS.  SAYAH'S ONLY 
HINT OF DISATISFACTION THUS FAR WAS A PUBLIC COMMENT 
PRIOR TO THE GOVERNMENT CHANGE TO THE EFFECT THAT 
TUNISIA HAS BEEN AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE LEAD BY 
CIVILIANS -- A POSSIBLE REFERENCE TO BEN ALI'S 
MILITARY BACKGROUND.  THE SAYAH-BEN ALI RELATIONSHIP 
BEARS WATCHING. 
 
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MORE CABINET CHANGES? 
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7.  SINCE BEN ALI'S APPOINTMENT, TUNIS' RUMOR MILLS 
HAVE BEEN WORKING OVERTIME AND FURTHER CABINET 
CHANGES ARE ALMOST UNIVERSALLY EXPECTED.  MUCH OF THE 
SPECULATIONS HAS FOCUSED ON THE ECONOMIC MINISTRIES. 
THE PRESIDENT REPORTEDLY MADE A SLIGHTING REMARK IN 
THE SEPT. 30 CABINET MEETING ABOUT MINISTER OF PLAN 
KHELIL'S FREQUENT TRIPS TO THE U.S.  (HE HAS BEEN IN 
WASHINGTON FOR IMF MEETINGS.)  BEN ALI, WHOSE 
ECONOMIC EXPERIENCE IS NIL, IS ALSO PERCEIVED TO NEED 
HELP PARTICULARLY IN THIS DOMAIN.  JUSTICE MINISTER 
AYARI IS ALSO THOUGHT TO BE BURNT OUT.  MOREOVER, THE 
PRESIDENT WAS REPORTEDLY NOT PLEASED WITH THE COURSE 
OF THE MTI TRIAL.  THE FOREIGN MINISTER'S 
DISAGREEMENTS WITH THE PRESIDENT EARLIER THIS SUMMER 
AND TOTAL EXCLUSION FROM RECENT MAGHREB DIPLOMACY 
HAVE ALSO RAISED QUESTIONS ABOUT HIS STATUS.  DEFENSE 
MINISTER BALY'S NAME IS ALSO MENTIONED AS SOMEONE WHO 
MIGHT BE CHANGED TO BRING NEW BLOOD INTO THE GOT. 
ONE LEADING CANDIDATE FOR A MINISTRY IS TUNISIA'S 
AMBASSADOR TO BONN BEJI CAID ESSEBSI, A FORMER 
MINISTER OF INTERIOR AND FOREIGN AFFAIRS, WHO HAD 
BEEN IN TUNIS THIS PAST WEEK AND IS EXPECTED BACK 
LATER THIS WEEK.  UN PERMREP MESTIRI HAS ALSO BEEN 
MENTIONED AS A CANDIDATE FOR FOREIGN AFFAIRS. 
 
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POLICY CHANGES: DIALOGUE WITH HUMAN RIGHTS LEADERS 
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8. BEN ALI'S ONE CLEAR POLICY INITIATIVE HAS BEEN A 
SLIGHT OPENING TO THE REGIME'S CRITICS.  IN HIS 
INITIAL POLICY STATEMENT AS PRIME MINISTER, HE CALLED 
FOR "A REINFORCEMENT OF NATIONAL UNITY BASED ON 
BOURGUIBIAN PRINCIPLES OF DIRECT CONTACT, RESPONSIBLE 
DIALOGUE AND CONCORD TO SERVE TUNISIA'S HIGHER 
INTERESTS AND TO SAFEGUARD TUNISIA'S STABILITY AND 
INVULNERABILITY."  SUBSEQUENTLY, HE MET ON OCT. 6 IN 
SEPARATE AND HIGHLY-PUBLICIZED MEETINGS WITH THE 
LEADERS OF THE INDEPENDENT TUNISIAN HUMAN RIGHTS 
LEAGUE AND GOT-CONTROLLED ASSOCIATION OF HUMAN RIGHTS 
AND PUBLIC LIBERTIES.  THESE GESTURES HAVE BEEN WELL 
RECEIVED.  OPPOSITION POLITICIANS WITH WHOM BEN ALI 
MAINTAINED CONTACTS AS INTERIOR MINISTER ARE NO DOUBT 
HOPING THAT THE PRIME MINISTER'S ATTENTION WILL 
EVENTUALLY EXTEND TO THEM.  IF SO, IT WILL BE A 
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. 
 
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U.S. INTERESTS 
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9.  U.S. INTERESTS ARE WELL SERVED BY BEN ALI'S 
APPOINTMENT.  IN THE NEAR TERM, IT ENHANCES STABILITY 
AT A TIME WHEN THE MTI CHALLENGE HAS BEEN BLUNTED, 
BUT NOT RESOLVED AND WHEN TUNISIA IS MOVING TOWARD A 
MORE NORMAL AND OPEN RELATIONSHIP WITH LIBYA.  IN THE 
LONGER TERM, SHOULD ANYTHING HAPPEN TO THE PRESIDENT, 
BEN ALI WOULD BE ALMOST THE IDEAL PERSON TO MAINTAIN 
ORDER IN THE TRANSITION.  HE IS NOT "AMERICA'S MAN" 
-- A WIDELY HELD PERCEPTION IN TUNIS BASED ON BEN 
ALI'S REPUTATION FOR "LAW AND ORDER" AND HIS LIMITED 
STUDY AS A SOLDIER IN THE U.S.  RATHER HE IS 
DISTINCTLY NON-IDEOLOGICAL.  NEVERTHELESS, THE 
ABSENCE OF INTELLECTUAL BAGGAGE--I.E. MZALI'S 
AMBITION TO BRING TUNISIA CLOSER TO THE ARAB WORLD, 
FOREIGN MINISTER MABROUK'S FRANCOPHILIA, ETC. -- IS 
AN ADVANTAGE AS FAR AS WE ARE CONCERNED.  ALSO IN 
U.S. INTERESTS IS BEN ALI'S TENTATIVE OPENING TO THE 
REGIME'S CRITICS.  AT A MINIMUM, HE HAS ENDORSED THE 
LEGITIMACY OF HUMAN RIGHTS ACTIVITY IN TUNISIA. 
WHETHER HE PROCEEDS FARTHER TOWARD POLITICAL 
PLURALISM WILL DEPEND ON MANY FACTORS -- PRINCIPALLY 
THE PRESIDENT'S ACQUIESCENCE OR RESISTANCE.  IT IS A 
TENDENCY, HOWEVER, THAT THE U.S. SHOULD ENCOURAGE. 
 
PELLETREAU##