US embassy cable - 04RANGOON714

C O N F I D E N T I A L RANGOON 000714 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR EAP/BCLTV 
COMMERCE FOR ITA JEAN KELLY 
USPACOM FOR FPA 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/07/2014 
TAGS: PGOV, PINS, BM, National Convention 
SUBJECT: VIEWS FROM THE THREE RING NATIONAL CONVENTION 
 
REF: RANGOON 637 AND PREVIOUS 
 
CLASSIFIED BY: DCM RON MCMULLEN FOR REASONS 1.4 (B,D) 
 
1. (C) SUMMARY: AFTER A THREE WEEK LOCKDOWN AT THE NATIONAL 
CONSTITUTIONAL CONVENTION, 700 DELEGATES GOT A WEEKEND PASS 
FOR JUNE 5-6.  DESPITE THIS RELEASE, NEWS FROM NYAUNG HNA PIN 
HAS BEEN SCARCE.  SOME SECOND AND THIRD-HAND TALES HAVE BEEN 
TRICKLING OUT ATTESTING TO THE FARCICAL AND PRE-ORDAINED 
NATURE OF THE EVENT.  THE ANECDOTES DON'T SHOWER MUCH GLORY 
ON THE REGIME OR THE CONSTITUTIONAL DELEGATES.  THERE ARE 
PERSISTENT RUMORS THAT SOME OF THE CEASE-FIRE GROUPS WILL 
HOLD OUT FOR "REAL REFORM."  HOWEVER, WE SEE LITTLE CHANCE 
THAT THESE GROUPS WILL GIVE UP THEIR CURRENT ECONOMIC BIRD IN 
THE HAND.  IN ANY EVENT, IT'S UNLIKELY THE SPDC WILL GIVE 
THESE GROUPS THE OPPORTUNITY TO MAKE ANY MEANINGFUL 
CONTRIBUTIONS TO THE CONVENTION PROCESS.  END SUMMARY. 
 
TALES OUT OF SCHOOL 
 
2. (C) PAGING JAMES MADISON:  THE SPDC ORDERED A PRESTIGIOUS 
BURMESE EX-AMBASSADOR TO THE CONVENTION SITE TO ADD SOME 
GRAVITAS TO THE EARLY PROCEEDINGS.  WHEN SUBSEQUENTLY 
RELEASED FROM DUTY, HE COMPLAINED TO A FRIEND THAT THE 
DELEGATES THE SPDC HAND-SELECTED WERE "RUFFIANS," WITH NO 
POLITICAL SAVVY OR SERIOUS UNDERSTANDING OF THEIR 
RESPONSIBILITIES. 
 
-- (C) THE LIVING IS EASY, PART 1: ONE ETHNIC KARENNI 
DELEGATE CONTACTED HIS FRIEND DESPERATELY ASKING FOR ONE 
MILLION KYAT (ABOUT US$1,100).  THOUGH HE HAD COME TO THE 
CONVENTION WITH A FAT ROLL OF CASH, THE REPRESENTATIVE HAD 
SPENT IT ALL GAMBLING WITH FELLOW DELEGATES AND TAKING 
ADVANTAGE OF THE ENTERTAINMENT -- MASSAGES, KARAOKE, SHOPPING 
-- SET UP ON-SITE BY THE REGIME TO MOLLIFY THE CAPTIVES.  THE 
DELEGATE HAD ALSO ASKED FOR A SHIPMENT OF 30 GAMEBOYS, "TO 
PASS THE TIME WHILE ALL THOSE OTHERS ARE TALKING AND TALKING." 
 
-- (C) THE LIVING IS EASY, PART 2: RUMOR HAS IT THAT LEGIONS 
OF YOUNG FEMALE "ASSISTANTS" HAVE BEEN SHIPPED TO THE 
CONVENTION SITE TO PROVIDE EXTRACURRICULAR SERVICES TO THE 
WEARY DELEGATES. 
 
-- (C) LOOK AND SIGN: ONE ETHNIC DELEGATE COMPLAINED TO HIS 
FRIEND THAT THE ATTENDANT GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS HAD MADE IT 
CLEAR THAT THE DELEGATES WERE NOT EXPECTED TO DISCUSS OR 
CONTRIBUTE BUT MERELY TO "HTAUK PI HTOU" ("REVIEW AND SIGN") 
THE FINAL, PRE-COOKED DOCUMENTS ULTIMATELY PRESENTED THEM. 
 
COMMENT: A BIRD IN THE HAND 
 
3. (C) RUMORS PERSIST THAT SOME OF THE BETTER ORGANIZED 
CEASE-FIRE POLITICAL GROUPS, SUCH AS THE KACHIN INDEPENDENCE 
ORGANIZATION, WILL HOLD OUT AT THE CONVENTION FOR SOME REAL 
REFORM.  THERE WAS EVEN SOME HOPE, UNREALIZED, THAT SOME OF 
THE ETHNIC DELEGATES WOULD REFUSE TO RETURN TO THE CONVENTION 
AFTER THEIR WEEKEND GETAWAY.  SUPPOSEDLY THESE GROUPS ARE 
GETTING PRESSURE TO DELIVER WHAT THEY'D BEEN PROMISING SINCE 
THEIR RESPECTIVE CEASE-FIRES -- SOME MEASURE OF AUTONOMY. 
 
4. (C) WE THINK THESE RUMORS WILL REMAIN JUST THAT SINCE THE 
CEASE-FIRE GROUPS ARE UNLIKELY TO BREAK WITH THE SPDC, AND 
RISK LOSING ECONOMIC BENEFITS THEY RECEIVE FROM THE REGIME, 
OVER THE HYPOTHETICAL POLITICAL FORM OF A FUTURE BURMA. 
UNLESS THEY'RE WILLING TO RESUME FIGHTING THE GOVERNMENT THE 
CEASE-FIRE GROUPS HAVE LITTLE LEVERAGE WITH AN SPDC THAT IS 
FIRMLY IN CONTROL OF THE NC.  HOWEVER, CEASE-FIRE GROUPS HAVE 
ADMITTED THEY AREN'T PREPARING FOR A RETURN TO ARMED 
CONFLICT, SO IT IS LIKELY THEY WILL ACCEPT WHATEVER THE SPDC 
HANDS THEM AT THE CONVENTION.  END COMMENT. 
MARTINEZ