US embassy cable - 04CARACAS1908

C O N F I D E N T I A L  CARACAS 001908 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
NSC FOR CBARTON 
USCINCSO ALSO FOR POLAD 
STATE PASS USAID FOR DCHA/OTI 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/26/2014 
TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, KDEM, VE 
SUBJECT: CHAVEZ AGREES TO RECALL REFERENDUM 
 
 
Classified By: Abelardo A. Arias, Political Counselor, for Reasons 1.4( 
b) and (d). 
 
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Summary 
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1. (C) The National Electoral Council (CNE) announced June 3 
that its preliminary calculations indicated that the 
opposition had collected enough signatures to activate the 
recall referendum against President Hugo Chavez.  In a 
national radio and television broadcast (cadena) from 
Miraflores Palace a few hours later, Chavez conceded the 
"clear tendencies" of the CNE's projections, claimed that 
this really was a GOV moral victory, and challenged the 
opposition to do "political battle."  Some Chavez supporters 
reacted violently while others reluctantly accepted the 
results, reiterating charges of opposition fraud.  The 
Coordinadora Democratica (CD) released its numbers -- with a 
greater margin of victory -- and called on the CNE to set the 
referendum for August 8, a date agreed to verbally during the 
signature appeals negotiations.  Delivering the preliminary 
results, CNE Director Jorge Rodriguez did not set a date for 
the recall vote.  Both sides called their followers to mass 
marches in Caracas, the opposition on June 5 and GOV on June 
6.  Chavez has taken the high road, admittedly his version of 
it, and now seems ready to take on the opposition personally 
in the referendum campaign.  End summary. 
 
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CNE Announces Probable Presidential Recall 
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2. (U) National Electoral Council (CNE) Director Jorge 
Rodriguez announced June 3 that the CNE's preliminary 
calculations indicated that the opposition had collected 
2,451,821 signatures, just 15,738 over the 2,436,083 needed 
to activate the recall referendum against President Hugo 
Chavez.  Rodriguez did not set a date for the referendum, 
which the rules say must be done when final results are 
announced.  CNE President Francisco Carrasquero said on May 2 
that if the opposition collected enough signatures via the 
appeals process, the referendum could take place on August 8. 
 Press reports say CNE technicians have proposed moving the 
date to August 15, four days before the date when the 
possibility of replacing a recalled Chavez via elections 
expires.  Rodriguez also announced that nine opposition 
deputies will definitely face a recall vote. 
 
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Opposition Claims Wider Margin 
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3. (U) With the go-ahead from Rodriguez, the Coordinadora 
Democractica (CD) released its results that showed the 
opposition had collected 2,569,584 signatures, 133,501 over 
the threshold.  CD Coordinator and Miranda State Governor 
Enrique Mendoza declared a "moral victory" and thanked 
opposition parties, civil society, and the international 
community, including OAS SYG Cesar Gaviria and former 
President Jimmy Carter, for their support.  Mendoza called on 
the CNE to respect the August 8 date for the referendum, 
saying the opposition would reject any attempt by the GOV to 
delay the referendum past August 19. 
 
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Chavez Accepts the Challenge 
---------------------------- 
 
4. (U) A few hours after the CNE announcement, President 
Chavez addressed the nation (cadena) June 3 from Miraflores 
Palace.  He rejected he had been defeated and accepted the 
referendum, conceding the "clear tendencies" of the CNE's 
projections.  Calling the CNE's announcement a victory for 
"participatory democracy," he recalled that it was he who 
first proposed the recall referendum be included in the 1999 
Constitution.  Surrounded by portraits and statues of Simon 
Bolivar, Christ, and Venezuelan military figures, Chavez made 
historical analogies to his struggle against the opposition. 
 
Chavez recounted the challenges faced by his administration, 
accusing the USG of conspiring to overthrow him, and 
challenged the opposition to prepare for a new Battle of 
Santa Ines.  (During Venezuela's Federal Wars, Gen. Ezequiel 
Zamora defeated the opposition's army through a series of 
strategic retreats.)  Addressing a widescreen television with 
images of thousands of supporters, Chavez told his people 
(the screen) that "this is just a new battle, and what awaits 
us is a new victory."  After the broadcast, Chavez circulated 
briefly among the crowd outside. 
 
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Chavista Reaction Mixed 
----------------------- 
 
5. (U) Prior to the President's acceptance of the referendum, 
Chavez supporters railed against the CNE's decision.  Armed 
groups allegedly linked to the GOV (the pro-Chavez website 
aporrea said the Tupamaros had taken credit) reacted 
violently in downtown Caracas on June 2, leaving one person 
dead and several injured, including opposition Deputy Rafael 
Marin (septel).  (After his speech, Chavez denounced violence 
"wherever it comes from" and called on all parties to 
maintain peace.)  CNE directors Jorge Rodriguez (pro-Chavez) 
and Sobella Mejias (pro-opposition) traded allegations June 
2-3 about some 15,800 deceased persons that had not been 
removed from the electoral registry prior to the appeals 
process.  Chavez supporters allege the opposition falsified 
identity cards in the names of the dead people and sent 
impostors to make the appeals.  Chavez supporters asserted it 
was an injustice that the margin of victory announced by the 
CNE was just under the number of supposed deceased persons. 
 
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Both Sides Plan Mass Marches, June 5-6 
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6. (C) The GOV and opposition called for marches in Caracas 
to support their respective "victories."  The opposition 
plans to march on June 5, the GOV on June 6.  The opposition 
also plans to hold marches in other cities June 6, according 
to Solidaridad Deputy Alejandro Armas.  Armas predicted to 
poloff June 4 the opposition marches would have large 
turnouts.  He said that turnouts of the opposition and 
Chavista marches would be good indicators of the popular 
support each side has for the referendum. 
 
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Comment 
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7. (C) Chavez's acceptance of the referendum is a clear 
victory for the referendum and a wise political move, 
especially with the OAS General Assembly just three days 
away.  Chavez believes his embrace of the referendum will 
save his image as a constitutional democrat, and exonerate 
the beleaguered CNE as a trustworthy institution.  His speech 
was pure hypocrisy, given the six months of delay he forced 
on the process.  He sought to stain the opposition's victory 
with fraud allegations not only to steal the momentum from 
the CD, but also to mollify radical elements within his own 
movement.  He made clear there will be no more middle men, 
that he personally would defeat the opposition at the ballot 
box.  This was his winning formula for reaching office, and 
may be his best bet now given the apparent failing of his 
political machinery -- the Comando Ayacucho -- to save him 
from the referendum.  Up to now, the GOV probably has not 
utilized its full capacity to boost Chavez's political 
popularity (and deflate that of the opposition).  Chavez now 
appears ready to try. 
 
8. (C) Why did Chavez give in?  We believe it was the 
OAS/Carter Center observation efforts, in large part, boosted 
by the Group of Friends and other countries; the perception 
that the truth would come out, and that opposition elements 
would use the lack of democratic options to justify violence; 
and Chavez's belief -- call it vanity -- that once again he 
can win big at the polls. 
SHAPIRO 
 
 
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      2004CARACA01908 - CONFIDENTIAL