US embassy cable - 04ACCRA1189

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ACCRA 001189 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, GH, GOG 
SUBJECT: BACK TO THE FUTURE? ELECTION SEASON UPDATE 
 
Summary 
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1. (U) Six months before the December 7 presidential and 
parliamentary elections, the cast of presidential candidates 
resembles that of the 2000 elections, with four repeat 
nominees.  The ruling NPP's long-standing co-opting of 
prominent small party officials prompted one small party to 
investigate a "gang of four" who support or serve the ruling 
regime.  The major opposition NDC has decided not to field a 
candidate for a vacant parliamentary seat previously held by 
the NPP, avoiding a contest it could not win.  Meanwhile, the 
Electoral Commission's voter registration exercise continues 
on course, with only isolated accusations of flawed 
procedures.  End summary. 
 
Presidential Candidates: Once More With Feeling 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
2. (U) On May 30, the northern-based People's National 
Convention (PNC), holding three seats in the 200-member 
Parliament, re-selected Dr. Edward Mahama as its presidential 
candidate.  He now joins President Kufuor of the NPP, former 
Vice President Atta Mills of the NDC, and Dan Lartey of the 
miniscule GCPP as repeat candidates for presidency.  So far, 
only the CPP, with one member of Parliament and little 
backing nationwide, has chosen a new candidate.  Other small 
parties, bereft of funds and without significant support, 
have not yet decided whether to select their own candidates 
for the presidency or to support someone else's. 
 
Six Times Bitten, Seventh Time Shy 
----------------------------------- 
3. (U) According to its National Chairman, The NDC has 
decided not to contest a June 29 by-election for a seat in 
the Upper Denkyira (Central Region) constituency, vacated in 
early May with the death of the sitting MP.  A previously 
safe seat for the NPP, the NDC faced an uphill struggle 
marshaling resources for a race it likely could not win, and 
which it must refight in December.  Party executives, 
embarrassed to be ceding the seat to the NPP, appealed to the 
Electoral Commission to review the constitutional 
requirements governing by-elections.  The EC politely 
declined -- it has a clear legal duty to hold the election. 
With six consecutive losses to the NPP in by-elections in the 
last two years, discretion here proved the better part of NDC 
valor. 
 
'Gang of Four': CPP Neanderthals Threaten Party Homo Sapiens 
--------------------------------------------- ------------ 
4. (U) In late May, the CPP launched a disciplinary probe of 
the actions of four of its leading members.  Most prominently 
amongst them, Dr. Paa Kwesi Nduom, failed CPP parliamentary 
candidate in 2000, is the Minister of Energy in the Kufuor 
government.  His efforts to secure the CPP nomination once 
again for that seat, while arranging NPP support for his 
election, has riled CPP officers.  Three others are attacked 
for giving aid and comfort to the NPP government -- their 
supposed offense is to have made public statements damaging 
to the CPP.  Nduom in particular represents the modern wing 
of the CPP.  His participation in Kufuor's government has 
never been accepted by party ideologues, many of whom march 
resolutely toward the 1960s and Ghana's failed pan-socialist 
experience. 
 
Small Parties: Shifting Alliances of the Frail and Ineffectual 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
5. (U)  A 'Grand Coalition' of the PNC, EGLE, and GCPP 
parties continues to not quite take shape.  Proposals 
circulate on some manner of shared candidacy for presidential 
and parliamentary seats.  While the PNC holds three seats in 
parliament, the other two have none and have little chance of 
winning any.  The three trumpet their shared "Nkrumaist" 
vision - a vision shared by few Ghanaians (though the PNC 
does have some strength in the north).  Two other Nkrumaist 
parties, the CPP and the NRP, have intermittently 
participated in these unity efforts, without success. 
 
Voter Registration: Photo-ID Effort Continues 
--------------------------------------------- 
6. (U) The national voter registration exercise continues, 
with photo-ID cards most recently issued in the Volta Region. 
 88.9 per cent of the voters preliminarily registered in 
March turned out to receive their cards.  Other regions have 
recorded slightly higher photo-ID card percentages, in the 
low 90s.  The exercise in the Volta Region, an NDC bastion, 
generated some protests by NDC officials, who feared attempts 
would be made to disenfranchise their supporters.  Changed 
dates for the photo-issuance phase caused particular worry, 
but the final results generally match those of other regions. 
 The EC plans a nationwide "mopping-up" exercise to catch 
remaining voters when it finishes with all the regions. 
Voters will not be able to vote in December without the 
identification card. 
 
Comment: December 2004 -- Back to the Future? 
--------------------------------------------- 
7. (U) With the national elections six months off, four of 
the seven men who ran for president in 2000 will run again. 
President Kufour's only serious competition remains former 
Vice President Mills.  The NDC's apparent decision not to 
contest the empty parliamentary seat reflects its own reduced 
fortunes (it is strapped for funds), as well as a commonsense 
decision not to fight where it would likely lose big.  As 
Ghana's small parties worry themselves over electoral 
alliances that will produce little tangible benefit, the 
Electoral Commission continues its workmanlike efforts to 
complete the new voter registration process. End comment. 
Yates