US embassy cable - 04YEREVAN1287

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 YEREVAN 001287 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR EUR/CACEN, EUR/ACE, EUR/PGI, DRL 
 
DEPT PLEASE PASS USAID 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, AM 
SUBJECT:  BUSINESS AS NOT-SO-USUAL IN ARMENIA'S PARLIAMENT 
 
1. (U) Sensitive but unclassified.  Please protect 
accordingly . 
 
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SUMMARY 
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2. (SBU) More than one year into the legislative season, a 
boycotting opposition, spotty attendance by pro-government 
deputies, continued political saber-rattling between parties 
and even occasional filibusters have raised questions as to 
the effectiveness of Armenia's National Assembly (NA).  With 
few exceptions, Speaker Artur Baghdasaryan has successfully 
painted a picture of "legislative business as usual" in the 
midst of opposition rallies and an uncertain political 
climate.  The absence of opposition party deputies, however, 
has clearly altered the dynamic within the parliament. 
While the governing coalition commands a quorum capable of 
passing new laws, the NA has tabled or voted down draft 
legislation proposed by the GOAM on three occasions, with 
small pro-government parties taking advantage the situation 
to flex their political muscle through abstentions.  The 
Speaker, in coordination with pro-government party offices, 
has taken on a new role as party whip as he is forced to 
call in habitually absent parliamentarians and to ensure 
that pro-government seats are filled during crucial votes. 
We have no remotely reliable indication that President 
Kocharian plans to dissolve the NA.  End Summary. 
 
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EAGER TO PORTRAY A BUSY, PRODUCTIVE PARLIAMENT 
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3. (SBU) With only a few exceptions, Speaker Arthur 
Baghdasaryan has successfully painted a picture of 
"legislative business as usual" in the midst of opposition 
rallies and an uncertain political climate.  Frequent press 
conferences and media events have highlighted a productive 
National Assembly even though the 22 opposition deputies of 
the Justice Bloc and National Unity Party continue to 
boycott regular sessions.  For their part, pro-government 
coalition parties appear to be making significant efforts to 
counter any indication by media and international observers 
that volatility in Armenian party politics has affected 
parliament's operations. 
 
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STILL A QUORUM -- BUT ALSO A NEW DYNAMIC 
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4. (SBU) The ongoing boycott by opposition deputies has in 
many respects, however, altered the dynamic within the 
National Assembly.  While one can easily categorize 94 of 
the National Assembly's 131 Deputies as "pro-government," 
mobilizing these 94 legislators has not been an easy task 
for National Assembly leadership.  The Speaker's office and 
governing coalition party offices have had to increase their 
roles as party whips as they are forced to call-in 
habitually truant pro-government parliamentarians and ensure 
that pro-government seats are filled during crucial votes. 
Calls by pro-government deputies to scrutinize attendance 
records against attendance requirements as a way to take 
advantage of a constitutional provision requiring minimal 
attendance and potentially oust the boycotting opposition 
came to nothing.  The possibility that the NA could formally 
scrutinize attendance records worried some deputies 
(specifically a handful in the governing Republican Party) 
who feared any action to remove "absent" MPs might adversely 
affect them as well. 
 
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GOAM DRAFTS DON'T PASS, SMALLER BLOCS FLEX NEWFOUND MUSCLES 
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5. (SBU) Despite the best efforts of National Assembly 
leaders to paint a rosy picture of parliament for public 
consumption, draft legislation proposed by the GOAM has 
failed to pass on three occasions in recent weeks because of 
procedural difficulties.  GOAM draft laws on higher 
education, declarations of personal income and wealth, and 
licensing regulations in the tourism sector did not receive 
a sufficient number of votes on their third (final) reading 
in the parliament.  On two occasions, deputies from pro- 
government parties did not respond to calls by National 
Assembly leadership to attend the voting sessions, but on 
another occasion, smaller blocs within the parliament (and 
present at the time of the vote) seized the opportunity to 
abstain and in so doing exercise their newfound proportional 
clout in the National Assembly.  The 23 MPs from the 
People's Deputy Group and United Labor Party were present in 
the chamber during the final reading of the licensing 
regulation draft law but refused to vote on the issue. 
Leaders from both of these groups suggested during comments 
following the vote that this move was an effort to remind 
Baghdasaryan and coalition leaders that they needed to give 
their parties certain privileges given new realities in the 
National Assembly.  The three failed drafts concerned issues 
important to the GOAM as they related to Council of Europe 
and domestic political commitments.  (Note:  The NA has also 
failed to pass a necessary budgetary expenditure law, which 
could potentially trigger constitutionally mandated 
ministerial resignations.  End Note.)  According to 
newspaper reports, Kocharian and relevant ministers were so 
irritated by the failure of these drafts that they berated 
coalition leaders during a closed-door meeting on June 1. 
 
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COMMENT: KOCHARIAN UNLIKELY TO DISSOLVE NATIONAL ASSEMBLY 
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6. (SBU) Despite isolated rumors that President Kocharian 
might exercise his constitutional right to dissolve 
parliament and call for new elections, analysts suggest that 
the current status quo works to Kocharian's advantage. 
Kocharian could see his power base weakened in the event of 
new elections and the threat of dissolution might actually 
serve his purposes in keeping coalition parties including 
Baghdasaryan's Orinats-Yerkir (Country of Law) party from 
wandering too far from the "Kocharian reservation."  The 
sources of these rumors (small, independent party leaders or 
party-affiliated newspapers without current representation 
in parliament) are precisely those who would most benefit 
from a call to dissolve parliament and hold new elections. 
GOAM officials from within the executive or the legislature 
have made no indication during recent conversation that they 
expect Kocharian to make such a move nor do they appear to 
be making preparations along such lines. 
ORDWAY