US embassy cable - 04LILONGWE488

UNCLAS LILONGWE 000488 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/03/2014 
TAGS: PGOV, KDEM, PINR, MI, United Democratic Front 
SUBJECT: OPPOSITION LEADER JUMPS SHIP; JOINS WITH RULING 
PARTY 
 
REF: A. LILONGWE 473 
 
     B. LILONGWE 449 
     C. LILONGWE 457 
 
1. (SBU)  Summary:  In an act of breathtaking (though not 
surprising) opportunism, opposition leader Gwanda Chakuamba 
has allied himself with newly-elected president Bingu wa 
Mutharika and the United Democratic Front (UDF) party.   The 
UDF believes the addition of the 19 parliamentary seats 
Chakuamba brings with him will enable the party to forge a 
working majority in the National Assembly.  Chakuamba, a 
bitter loser in the May 20 presidential elections, has agreed 
to drop his legal petition to have the election results 
declared null and void.  President Mutharika, who just last 
week told donor chiefs of mission that Chakuamba was a "thug 
and a liar" will no doubt make room in his cabinet for his 
erstwhile opponent.  With a coalition now formed, Mutharika 
is expected to announce his cabinet imminently.  End summary. 
 
2.  (U) Opposition party leader and former presidential 
candidate Gwanda Chakuamba on June 3 quit the seven-party 
opposition coalition he headed to ally himself with the 
ruling UDF.  The move fractures the opposition, leaving 
Mgwirizano Coalition vice president (and former UDF 
heavyweight) Aleke Banda as the new leader of a significantly 
weakened five-party coalition. 
 
3. (SBU) After its dismal performance in parliamentary 
elections, the UDF began courting opposition party leaders in 
order to create a majority coalition in parliament (reftel 
A). Former president Bakili Muluzi, who is chairman of the 
UDF, hosted Chakuamba at his residence in Blantyre on May 31 
and made an offer Chakuamba eventually accepted.  Though 
details are not known, there is widespread speculation that 
Chakuamba was offered a cabinet position, a large sum of 
money, and perhaps a house in Lilongwe. There is also 
speculation that Chakuamba will soon retire from politics. 
 
4.  (SBU) Chakuamba's Republican Party controls 16 
parliamentary seats; the Movement for Genuine Democratic 
Change (MGODE), which is also breaking ranks with the 
coalition to join the UDF, has three seats; and the UDF 
currently has 49 seats, plus is in partnership with AFORD and 
the Congress for National Unity with a total of seven more 
seats.   This still leaves the UDF short of the 97 seats it 
needs to have a majority in the 193-seat assembly, but it 
believes it will easily be able to secure the support of most 
of the 38 newly-elected independents.  The new parliament is 
to convene June 7-8, and the exact size and composition of 
the UDF's coalition will be clear then. 
 
5. (SBU)  Before election results were announced on May 23, 
Chakuamba proclaimed himself the victor.  After results 
indicated he had actually placed third, Chakuamba with his 
Mgwirizano Coalition filed suit to declare the presidential 
election results null and void (reftel B).  As a condition of 
the alliance, Chakuamba has agreed to drop his legal 
challenge, though the case may proceed with Banda acting in 
Chakuamba's place. 
 
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COMMENT 
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5. (SBU)  Chakuamba is already being heavily criticized by 
supporters for his "betrayal."  He will no doubt try to 
convince them that he agreed to participate in a coalition 
with the UDF for their benefit.  The UDF's extension of a 
political olive branch to former arch-enemies is less a 
gesture of good will than an attempt to resume control, and 
the parliamentary implications are yet unclear.  What is 
clear is that Chakuamba, who seems genuinely to believe he 
was going to win the presidential elections, decided he would 
rather be on the inside looking out.  Mutharika, whose 
contempt for Chakuamba was visceral just last week when he 
told donor chiefs of mission that the opposition leader was 
"greedy and crazy," (reftel C) is learning that politics 
(especially when orchestrated by former president Muluzi) 
makes strange bedfellows. 
 
6. (U) Comment continued: We expect an imminent announcement 
of Mutharika's cabinet -- if not today, then before 
parliament convenes on June 7.  End comment. 
DOUGHERTY