US embassy cable - 04BRUSSELS2368

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BRUSSELS 002368 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NOFORN 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/02/2014 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, EAID, PINR, EUN, USEU BRUSSELS 
SUBJECT: KEY TOPICS FOR EU FMS' MEETING AND SUMMIT, JUNE 14 
AND JUNE 17-18 
 
 
Classified By: Rick Holtzapple, PolOff, Reason 1.4 (B/D) 
 
SUMMARY 
------- 
 
1.   The headline issues for the June 14 EU FMs' meeting and 
the June 17-18 EU Summit will be the final round of 
Constitutional Treaty negotiations and the nomination of the 
next generation of key EU leaders (Commission President, CFSP 
High Rep).  But a substantial list of other topics will also 
be on the meeting agendas.  Likely topics include Iraq, Iran, 
Afghanistan, counter-terror, WMD, the EU Arms Agency, 
Bulgaria, Romania, Croatia (and possibly other Balkan topics 
such as UNMIK and Serb elections), Russia, the European 
Neighborhood Initiative, Sudan, Burma and Nepal.  The Irish 
are even pondering a "bland" reference to Transatlantic 
relations.  While few of these topics will actually receive 
much substantive debate at ministerial or summit level, the 
Irish Presidency is at work on draft Conclusions for nearly 
all of these topics.  END SUMMARY 
 
A BIG WEEK FOR THE EU 
--------------------- 
 
2. (SBU) The week of June 14th will be the culmination of the 
Irish EU Presidency, with Foreign Ministers meeting in 
Luxembourg on June 14 for a General Affairs and External 
Relations Council (GAERC) meeting, and gathering again with 
EU Heads of State and Government for the EU Summit meeting in 
Brussels on June 17-18.  The headline issues for both 
meetings, and -- at least within the EU -- the measure of 
whether the Irish Presidency has been a success, will be if 
the EU can successfully conclude its negotiations on a new 
Constitutional Treaty and who they pick as the next European 
Commission President and the next High Rep for the Common 
Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP).  We believe the chances 
are better than even that the Irish will be able to reach an 
agreement on the Constitutional Treaty, although the specific 
details of how some issues such as voting formulas will come 
out are harder to predict.  But in any case, it is unlikely 
that significant changes will occur in policy areas of direct 
interest to the US such as the European Security and Defense 
Policy (ESDP).  The possibility that CFSP could in some 
circumstances be a matter of Qualified Majority Vote (QMV) 
rather than unanimity remains an agenda item, but we doubt it 
would be agreed.  The Commission President race, however, 
remains highly unpredictable.  The fact that there are three 
rumored "front runners" (Belgian PM Verhofstadt, Luxembourger 
PM Juncker and Portuguese Commissioner Vitorino) from among a 
very long list of possibilities  means that in reality there 
is no front runner and "none of the above" is as good a bet 
as any.  By contrast, it is almost guaranteed that Javier 
Solana will be renominated as CFSP High Rep, unless he 
emerges as a last-minute compromise candidate for Commission 
President. 
 
3. (SBU) While the above issues will be getting almost all 
the attention during the big week, the GAERC and Summit 
meetings will also have long agendas of other items, few of 
which will get much substantive discussion by FMs or Heads, 
but most of which will be discussed in the official 
Conclusions of the meetings. 
 
MIDDLE EAST, MEPP, IRAQ 
----------------------- 
 
4. (C) The Commission is due to send to the EU Member States 
on June 9 a document outlining a "Medium Term Strategy" for 
Iraq (septel).  FMs and Heads will "welcome, review and 
possibly endorse" this strategy, an Irish source told us.  A 
similar approach is possible for an anticipated "EU Strategic 
Partnership for the Mediterranean and Middle East Regions." 
Finally the Summit, and possibly the GAERC as well, will 
issue Conclusions on the Middle East Peace Process, but our 
sources indicate there is unlikely to be much substance 
beyond what was discussed at the last Quartet meeting and 
familiar statements underlining the need to implement the 
road map.  The EU on June 14 will also be holding its 
inaugural Association Council meeting with Egypt, subsequent 
to the recent signing of an EU-Egypt Association Agreement. 
 
IRAN (POSSIBLY) 
--------------- 
 
5. (C) Our Irish source told us that the EU will be primed to 
respond to the most recent IAEA report and any implications 
of it for Iran's relationship with the EU, and will almost 
feel compelled to do so as earlier GAERC's have committed the 
EU FMs to actively follow the issue.  Our source confessed to 
a secret hope, however, that the IAEA report, which is 
scheduled to be presented to the IAEA Board of Governors on 
June 14, might come out so late that the EU will not have to 
offer any substantive response, since the crowded agendas of 
the meetings will make any serious discussion of the issue 
difficult. 
 
AFGHANISTAN 
----------- 
 
6. (C) EU FMs at the GAERC are to discuss what EU role might 
be possible in support of the upcoming elections.  The 
Commission, which usually organizes such activities for the 
EU, has expressed concerns about the security situation and 
burgeoning drug trade. 
 
WMD, COUNTER TERRORISM, AND OTHER JHA MATTERS 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
7. (C) The GAERC should review the implementation of the EU's 
WMD strategy and adopt a declaration on criminal sanctions on 
WMD related material.  The Summit is also likely to reiterate 
EU support for the PSI statement of interdiction principles. 
The EU Summit Conclusions should include a "substantial 
section" on counter terrorism efforts, based on the work of 
the EU's new "anti-terror czar" Gijs de Vries.  The Summit is 
also set to consider a Commission report (released on June 2) 
on how the EU is doing on coordination and implementation of 
other justice and home affairs (JHA) projects such as law 
enforcement cooperation and immigration policies.  This 
report comes five years after the 1999 EU Summit in Tampere, 
Finland set a lengthy agenda for such work. 
 
ESDP 
---- 
 
8. (C/NF) The meetings will conduct a traditional "end of 
term" review of progress and activities in developing ESDP. 
Among possible items for decision would be approval to move 
ahead on the "battle groups" proposal.  The Irish also remain 
hopeful that the GAERC will approve a Joint Action on 
establishment of the new EU Arms Agency.  The Agency has been 
a repeated subject of discussion just below the level of the 
Political and Security Committee as Member States such as the 
British and Dutch seek to ensure that agreed procedures 
maintain some constraints over what the Agency can do, 
particularly by ensuring that small groups cannot use the 
agency to promote projects unless a majority of Member States 
support the idea (even if they do not all choose to 
participate). 
 
ENLARGEMENT: CROATIA, ROMANIA, BULGARIA, BUT LITTLE ON TURKEY 
--------------------------------------------- ---------------- 
 
9. (C) The next round(s) of EU enlargement will also figure 
on the week's agendas.  The Irish sound confident they will 
be able to close all of the remaining negotiating chapters 
for Bulgaria's accession.  They also expect to conclude some 
additional chapters with Romania, although the Irish focus 
has been on Bulgaria to "allow the Dutch to focus on just one 
country."  Croatia, another Irish source told us, is 
"virtually guaranteed" to be named an official candidate for 
EU membership at the Summit.  But it is still a pending 
question whether the EU will fix a date for beginning 
accession negotiations with Croatia.  According to our Irish 
contact, this has nothing to do with remaining question marks 
over Croatia's ICTY cooperation, but are only related to 
France's "enlargement fatigue" and the worries of several 
Member States about setting a precedent for the December 
decision on Turkey.  The June Summit is expected to make at 
most cursory mention of Turkey in its Conclusions. 
 
RUSSIA AND EUROPEAN NEIGHBORHOOD INITIATIVE 
------------------------------------------- 
 
10. (SBU) The Summit will likely include positive language 
about developments in EU-Russia relations over the past six 
months.  The Irish Presidency appears keen to highlight what 
they see as one of their successes in "taking a clearer look 
at identifying what we wanted out of the relationship and 
creating a proper structure for handling it."  They will 
likely look to highlight the results of the recent EU-Russia 
Summit.  The Summit should also approve the Commission's 
proposals for the European Neighborhood Initiative and 
confirm that Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan are potential 
participants within the scope of the project, with Georgia 
being the initial candidate for further interaction. 
 
SUDAN 
----- 
 
11. (SBU) The Summit is likely to issue language addressing 
the Sudan crisis, according to one of our Irish sources, but 
it was unclear what precisely the EU would include.  One 
possibility could be an offer of support for EU monitors for 
a cease-fire in the country, but that is not yet decided. 
(NOTE:  Members of the EU Military Staff have reacted very 
negatively to the prospect of being asked to undertake any 
sort of ESDP mission in Sudan at a time when they are fully 
engaged in Bosnia planning.) 
 
BURMA/ASEM AND NEPAL 
-------------------- 
 
12. (C) The EU continues to struggle with how to respond to 
the pending enlargement of ASEAN, including Burma as a 
member.  The GAERC should review the EU's approach to the 
problem, including the question of whether the EU would show 
up for a meeting where the Burmese regime attends (an EU-ASEM 
Summit is scheduled for Hanoi in October, with lower level 
meetings beginning under the Dutch presidency in July).  An 
Irish envoy (John Campbell) has been touring the region, but 
reportedly heard little flexibility from ASEAN countries. 
The EU FMs will likely confirm the EU's position that Rangoon 
should release Aung San Suu Kyi, allow greater political 
participation of her party, and improve the procedures for 
the National Conference.  At British request, the GAERC is 
also set to discuss the current situation in Nepal. 
 
TRANSATLANTIC RELATIONS 
----------------------- 
 
13. (C/NF) Based on the principle, according to our Irish 
contact, that "if we have mentioned all these other places in 
the world, someone might ask us why we did not mention the 
U.S." the EU Summit's Conclusions will likely include a 
"bland" paragraph on transatlantic relations, that would do 
little more than note the EU looked forward to the US-EU 
Summit the following week.  (COMMENT:  As ever with EU 
Conclusions, the fact that a topic is simply introduced 
leaves open the possibility that one Member State or another 
will try to introduce additional language, but we wouldn't 
expect any such ideas to gain consensus.  END COMMENT.) 
 
BALKANS 
------- 
 
14. (C) Beyond the discussion (see para 9) on Croatia's EU 
application, the Balkans may not receive any ministerial 
level discussion.  GAERC Conclusions are likely, however, 
that will note Solana's recent visit to Kosovo, and perhaps 
the resignation of UNMIK SRSG Holkeri, as well as the 
previous weekend's presidential elections in Serbia. 
 
OTHER TOPICS 
------------ 
 
15.  (SBU) The meetings will also include standard "end of 
term reviews" of EU action on conflict prevention; 
implementation of the European Security Strategy in the four 
chosen areas (counter terrorism, Bosnia, "effective 
multilateralism" and the Middle East); and progress on the 
EU's Lisbon agenda for economic reform.  Finally, the EU 
Summit should establish a calendar for reaching agreement on 
the EU's 2007-2013 "financial perspective" or budget 
envelope.  This is set to become the EU's next big internal 
debate. 
 
SCHNABEL