US embassy cable - 04BRUSSELS2360

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BRUSSELS 002360 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR EUR/ERA 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/02/2014 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, PINR, EUN, USEU BRUSSELS 
SUBJECT: EUROPEAN ELECTIONS: RESHUFFLING OF PARTY GROUPS? 
 
REF: A. A) BRUSSELS 1090 
     B. B) BRUSSELS 1094 
     C. C) BRUSSELS 1736 
     D. D) BRUSSELS 2107 
     E. E) BRUSSELS 2196 
 
Classified By: USEU POLOFF TODD HUIZINGA, FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D) 
 
 1. (C) SUMMARY:  Since the European Parliament (EP) "party 
groups" are coalitions of member-state parties, their 
membership is somewhat fluid; some realignment is likely to 
result from the June 10-13 European elections.  Despite 
persistent rumors, the probable departure of some national 
parties from the Christian Democrats and Conservatives group 
(EPP-ED) is unlikely to threaten the EPP-ED's plurality.  The 
coalition of Socialists and Social Democrats (PES) will 
likely hold together and remain the second largest EP group. 
The Liberal Democrats (ELDR) may increase their clout if they 
succeed in forming a new centrist group.  An expected poor 
showing in the elections may move the Greens to try to join 
another party group.  In these complex Europe-wide elections, 
only one result is certain: the EP's new balance of political 
forces will remain a mixed bag for the U.S. -- it will be up 
to us to find effective ways to engage the EP on the 
important issues.  END SUMMARY. 
 
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SERIES OF PRE-ELECTION REPORTS 
------------------------------ 
 
2. (U) This is the final message of a series of reports on 
the European elections.  Ref A provides general background on 
the European Parliament (EP) and the European elections; ref 
B is a broad analysis of expected campaign issues and 
election outcomes; ref C analyzes the possible impact of MEPs 
from the 10 new EU member states; ref D discusses the role of 
U.S.-EU relations in the elections campaign; and ref E 
describes key MEPs who have good re-election prospects. 
 
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EPP-ED: WILL DIVERSE PARTIES STAY TOGETHER? 
------------------------------------------- 
 
3. (C) David Fieldsend, an expert NGO lobbyist at the EP, 
succinctly summed up the ever-present possibility of party 
realignment: "the EP may have only 8 party groups, but those 
groups are made up of over 100 parties."  According to 
Fieldsend and other interlocutors, the center-right EPP-ED 
could change in two major ways: it could lose centrists (see 
para 5), or the euroskeptics (especially the UK 
Conservatives) could leave and form a separate group.  Which 
party group some of the new-member-state parties will join 
also remains uncertain.  In the EPP-ED's case, German 
Christian Democrats (especially the Bavarian CSU) might 
oppose inclusion of the Czech Civic Democratic Party (ODS) in 
the EPP-ED because of its opposition to the revocation of the 
post-war Benes decrees, under which Sudeten Germans were 
expelled after WWII from what is now Czech territory. 
 
4. (C) Despite the likelihood of some change in membership, 
though, it appears that the pragmatic desire to remain the 
EP's largest party group will carry the day.  Klaus Welle, a 
long-time top adviser of EPP-ED Chairman Hans-Gert 
Poettering, told us that Poettering's "big tent" strategy 
would take precedence over ideological purity.  So far, this 
has been confirmed by events.  Earlier this year, amidst 
rumors of a possible split between the pro-EU-integration 
Christian Democrats and the euroskeptic UK Tories, Poettering 
and UK Tory leader Michael Howard negotiated a deal keeping 
the Tories in the EPP-ED. On March 31, EPP-ED members 
approved the bargain by a large majority.  How tough the 
EPP-ED's post-election negotiating strategy will be with 
euroskeptic or center-left parties will thus depend on 
whether the EPP-ED comes out of the elections with a large 
plurality. 
 
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NEW FEDERALIST "CENTER" PARTY? 
------------------------------ 
 
5. (C) ELDR leader Graham Watson, European Commission 
President Romano Prodi, and French Union for French Democracy 
(UDF) leader Francois Bayrou have announced the possible 
formation, after the June elections, of a new centrist, 
"EU-federalist" EP party group.  The group would aim to 
include the ELDR, members of the French UDF, Prodi's Italian 
center-left Marguerita Party, and several regional parties. 
Although some of the pronouncements of the players involved 
give the impression of a done deal, our interlocutors differ 
on how solid the agreement actually is.  Welle told us, for 
example, that Bayrou, a "tough negotiator," was demanding 
that the word "liberal" not be included in the party name, 
something hard for ELDR members to accept.  Also, the Prodi 
party, made up of Italian former Liberals, Socialists and 
Christian Democrats, may also find it difficult to unite 
under the "liberal" label.   Summing it up, ELDR MEP Cecilia 
Malmstroem cautioned that "nothing is certain" until after 
the elections. 
------------------- 
WHITHER THE GREENS? 
-------------------- 
 
6. (C) Because virtually no Greens candidates will be elected 
from the new member states -- several reports forecast a 
single Latvian aspirant will be the only one -- the Greens 
may end up in fifth place behind the far-left EUN/NGL (even 
though polls predict that the EUN/NGL will also lose seats). 
Malmstroem went so far as to speculate that the realist wing 
of the Greens might be forced to seek a coalition with the 
ELDR.  Greens MEP Joost Lagendijk (strictly protect) also 
told us that the Greens, in the event of a poor showing in 
the elections, might make overtures to either the PES or the 
ELDR. 
 
------------------------ 
FAR RIGHT BEARS WATCHING 
------------------------ 
 
7. (C) Among the small party groups, the far right bears 
watching.  During the current term far-right parties such as 
the French National Front, the Belgian Vlaams Blok and the 
Austrian Freedom Party were non-aligned.  If they succeed in 
working together and are strengthened by allies from the new 
member states, they may form their own party group (which by 
EP rules must include MEPs from at least 5 member states) and 
thus become participants in the EP's committee and leadership 
structure. 
 
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COMMENT: EP TO REMAIN A MIXED BAG 
--------------------------------- 
 
8. (C) Assuming the British Conservatives stay in the EPP-ED 
and it keeps its plurality, the biggest change in the 
party-group balance would probably result from the formation 
of an ELDR/centrist group.  In that case, the additional 
seats for the centrists/liberals and the probable losses of 
the Greens and the EUN/NGL would combine to enhance the ELDR 
successor's weight as a kingmaker between the EPP-ED and PES. 
 If this new group does come into being, we expect the 
addition of the Prodi party and others to exacerbate the 
ELDR's tendency to vote against U.S. interests.  In both 
legislation and "sense of Congress" resolutions, an ELDR 
successor would form frequent majorities with the PES and the 
far left in opposition to U.S. policy on issues such as Iraq, 
data privacy, climate change, Guantanamo, and the ICC.  One 
additional question mark is whether new member state parties 
will noticeably change the dynamics within EP party groups, 
rendering them more diverse and perhaps more open to U.S. 
input (ref C).  Regardless of the elections' outcome, one 
result is certain: the EP will remain a mixed bag from the 
U.S. perspective.  It will be up to us to find effective ways 
to influence party groups and individual MEPs on each of the 
important issues.  END COMMENT. 
 
SCHNABEL