US embassy cable - 04DUBLIN826

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DUBLIN 000826 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/UBI 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/01/2009 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, ASEC, EUN 
SUBJECT: ANTI-WAR ELEMENTS PRESSURING GOVERNMENT ON 
PRESIDENT'S VISIT TO IRELAND 
 
 
Classified By: DCM Jane B. Fort, reason 1.4 (d) 
 
 1.  (C)  Summary:  Some Irish opposition politicians are 
teaming up with anti-war organizations to protest President 
Bush,s visit to Ireland June 25-26.  Sinn Fein, the Greens, 
and Labour have announced their support for mass 
demonstrations, while various Parliamentary deputies have 
called on the GOI to take action ranging from canceling the 
visit to demarching the President on abuses at Abu Ghraib. 
Dismay over Iraq, especially the lack of an international 
mandate for military action, is key.  Electioneering for June 
11 local and MEP elections is in part responsible for this 
grandstanding, reflecting negative public sentiment against 
the President,s visit.  However, we do not anticipate any 
disruption to the Summit, which will highlight the strong 
TransAtlantic ties valued by the majority of Irish.  End 
Summary. 
 
Politicians Gauging Anti-War Sentiment 
-------------------------------------- 
 
2.   (SBU)  The Irish Anti-War Movement is hoping for a 
repeat of the February 2003 rally which saw 100,000 on the 
streets of Dublin to protest the pending Iraq war and the 
GOI,s granting of refuel and overflight rights to the U.S. 
military.  A fundraising concert in Dublin featuring 
prominent Irish musician Christy Moore (among others), and 
backed by the largest Irish trade union, is scheduled for 
June 19.  Proceeds will be used to organize nation-wide 
demonstrations on June 25 and a march on June 26 from the 
Summit site to Shannon airport.  Opposition parties Sinn 
Fein, the Greens, and Labour have lent their support to the 
protests, along with several independent Deputies. 
 
3.   (C) In Parliament, the government has come under 
pressure from all the opposition parties to take a stand 
against U.S. action in Iraq.  Some have called on PM Ahern to 
close Shannon airport to the U.S. military, to make a 
personal demarche to President Bush on the Abu Ghraib abuses, 
and to relocate the Summit to Brussels.  With local and 
European Parliamentary elections scheduled for June 11, all 
parties are playing to populist elements -- including the 
government coalition.  PM Ahern and FM Cowen have gone on 
record to criticize USG prison abuses, while Mary Harney, 
Deputy PM, leader of the coalition partner Progressive 
Democrats, and -- in her own words -- "one of the most 
pro-American politicians" in Ireland, has made clear that she 
intends to raise the Abu Ghraib scandal during the 
President's visit.  She foresees public protests as well, 
characterizing them as "no bad thing."  Enda Kenny, leader of 
the moderate opposition party Fine Gael, insisted to the 
Ambassador that a statement attributed to him that the Summit 
should move to Brussels was false. 
 
4.  (C)  PM Ahern,s Fianna Fail party may be hoping that, 
once past the June elections, there will be less impetus to 
grandstand on Iraq.  Barry Andrews, an up-and-coming, 
well-connected Fianna Fail Deputy, told us he thought the 
Irish public and politicians will have had their say on Iraq 
by the time of the visit, and said he was not concerned about 
high profile public statements or elaborate demonstrations 
during the Summit. 
 
Vocal, if Shallow, Opposition Centered on Iraq 
--------------------------------------------- - 
 
5.   (C)  We are more cautious.  An "Irish Examiner" poll 
released May 29 found 67 percent opposed to the President,s 
visit, with supporters only weighing in at 19 percent. 
Opposition to the U.S. military,s use of Shannon remains 
constant (though not universal), and a May 17-21 goodwill 
visit of the Sixth Fleet command ship USS LaSalle was greeted 
with deep suspicion by media and some members of Parliament. 
Dublin City Council approved a measure to fly white peace 
flags in lieu of the U.S. flag during the visit, and 
protestors have even seized on relatively low-key events (HHS 
Secretary Thompson,s participation in a health conference in 
 
SIPDIS 
Cork, a trip by the Ambassador to Galway) to demonstrate 
against U.S. foreign policy.  A group calling itself "U.S. 
Citizens for Peace" plans weekly vigils at the embassy 
throughout the month of June. 
 
6.   (C)  Unforeseen events on the ground in Iraq, and the 
impending transfer of sovereignty around the time of the 
Summit could also create new excuses for protests. 
Continued violence in the Arab-Israeli conflict, and the 
perception of U.S. bias towards Israel and the Sharon 
government, may further fuel protests. 
 
Government Committed to TransAtlantic Ties 
------------------------------------------ 
7.   (C)  Notwithstanding popular (and populist) pressure, 
the GOI is committed to a smooth, secure, and productive 
summit which showcases the mutual benefits of the U.S.-EU 
relationship.  The Irish are fully engaged in both the 
substantive and logistical preparations for the visit, and 
working with their EU counterparts to hammer out language on 
a range of statements highlighting areas of cooperation. 
 
 
8.   (C)  The Irish are also taking very seriously the 
security arrangements for the visit.  Thousands of uniformed 
police and defense forces personnel will be drafted into the 
Shannon area to provide extensive perimeter security at 
Shannon airport and the Summit site.  In an April meeting 
with senior Irish police officials, the U.S. Secret Service 
and RSO reached agreement on many key security issues. 
USG-GOI cooperation and coordination continues, and we are 
confident that protestors will not disrupt the Summit. 
Comment 
-------- 
 
9.   (C)  Popular opposition to current U.S. foreign policy 
notwithstanding, it would be a gross misstatement to 
characterize the Irish mood as anti-American.  Family, 
travel, and business ties are as strong and healthy as ever, 
and we believe the view of the United States from the man in 
the street remains, on balance, positive.  Much of the 
"anti-Bush" sentiment expressed by protestors and opposition 
politicians is, in fact, aimed at trying to elicit from the 
Irish Government a clear statement opposing U.S. action in 
Iraq.  The GOI proved its mettle last year, weathering 
anti-Shannon protests at the onset of the Iraq war and 
maintaining a pragmatic position in support of both 
multilateralism and TransAtlantic ties.  We expect no less 
from them this time around. 
KENNY