US embassy cable - 04CARACAS1861

C O N F I D E N T I A L  CARACAS 001861 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
NSC FOR CBARTON 
USCINCSO ALSO FOR POLAD 
STATE PASS USAID FOR DCHA/OTI 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/26/2014 
TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, KDEM, VE 
SUBJECT: SIGNATURES APPEALS UPDATE:  MAY 30 
 
 
Classified By: Abelardo A. Arias, Political Counselor, 
for Reasons 1.4(b) and (d). 
 
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Summary 
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1. (C) Venezuelans turned out in lesser numbers on the last 
day of presidential signature (May 30) appeals.  Partial 
results indicate the opposition collected enough appeals to 
activate the referendum.  There were violent confrontations 
between Chavez sympathizers and opposition groups near 
appeals centers nationwide.  GOV security forces raided 
dozens of opposition information centers in search of fraud 
alleged by Chavez supporters.  The pro-Chavez campaign 
committee Comando Ayacucho accused the opposition of 
falsifying 10,000 identity cards in hundreds of centers 
across Venezuela, and called for an audit of all appeals 
registers (cuadernos).  National Electoral Council (CNE) 
President Francisco Carrasquero expressed concern at the 
alleged electoral fraud and encouraged appeals workers to 
scrutinize identity cards.  Former President Jimmy Carter, 
accompanied by OAS SYG Gaviria, told reporters that the 
reported irregularities were minor technicalities and should 
not delay official results.  End Summary. 
 
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Opposition Reaches Threshold 
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2. (C) Turnout was lower May 30 for the third and final day 
of signature appeals, with heavy rains in Caracas and in many 
states around Venezuela.  Observers noted that participation 
had picked up in some states, but it did not reach first-day 
levels.  Appeals centers operated normally, though observers 
noted that Plan Republica soldiers scrutinized closely 
persons trying to enter centers.  With two hours remaining 
before closure, results from one source said the opposition 
had reached 2.52 million valid signatures, at least 80,000 
signatures above the threshold needed to activate the recall 
referendum against President Hugo Chavez May 30.  Projections 
suggest the opposition will exceed the threshold by 110,000 
signatures. (Update: as of May 31, opposition was claiming it 
exceeded threshold by 130,000 signatures.) 
 
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Violence, Threats Around Appeals Centers 
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3. (U) Press and observer reports noted the continued 
presence of Chavez supporters, and in many cases, opposition 
groups, around appeals centers.  There were reports of 
harassment of participants by Chavez groups.  Observers noted 
groups of Chavez supporters, some of them armed, arriving at 
sites in buses and government vehicles, where they would 
intimidate participants.  Disputes often resulted in Plan 
Republica soldiers closing centers temporarily. 
 
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Chavistas Allege Massive Fraud 
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4. (U) Members of the pro-Chavez campaign committee Comando 
Ayacucho alleged the opposition engaged in mass fraud, 
falsifying identity cards (cedulas).  The Comando Ayacucho 
demanded that the National Electoral Council (CNE) audit 
every appeals register to ensure the fraudulent cedulas had 
not been used.  GOV security forces raided dozens of the 
opposition's information centers throughout Venezuela, 
alleging they were factories for producing false cedulas. 
Comando Ayacucho members were present for several raids, 
showing the false cedulas allegedly recovered from the sites. 
 Libertador Mayor Freddy Bernal claimed to have found a 
"national identity card cloning center," alleging the GOV had 
discovered at least 10,000 such cards.  Political party 
offices, doubling as information centers, were also targets. 
DISIP agents at one site claimed they did not need a search 
warrant because they were in hot pursuit of gunmen who had 
fired on them. 
 
5. (U) The Comando Ayacucho also claimed that more than 5,300 
people who had passed away since signing in November 2003 had 
mysteriously appealed their signatures.  Pro-Chavez Fifth 
Republic Movement (MVR) Deputy Willian Lara said the Comando 
Ayacucho would request the National Electoral Council (CNE) 
exclude these signatures automatically.  In some centers the 
"deceased" persons appeared and defended their signatures, 
according to press and observer reports.  The CD dismissed 
the fraud allegations as desperation by the GOV and demanded 
that the CNE not change the rules by auditing every register. 
 
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Carter and Gaviria Visit Chavez, CNE 
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6. (U) Former President Jimmy Carter and OAS SYG Cesar 
Gaviria met separately with President Chavez on May 30. 
Chavez told reporters after the Carter meeting he would 
comply with any decision by the CNE.  Carter and Gaviria met 
with the CNE board later in the day.  Carter told the press 
that the process was being carried out in peace and calm. 
News reports of intimidation and violence, he said, were 
minor problems that did not disrupt the appeals process. 
Carter said the technicalities raised by the Comando Ayacucho 
should not delay the delivery of results. 
 
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Comment 
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7. (C) The GOV was aware of the opposition's progress and 
tried to discourage turnout through harassment and, failing 
that, discrediting the results by alleging fraud.  The 
opposition seems to be on track to have obtained a moderate 
cushion of signatures to activate the recall referendum.  We 
are still several days away from the deadline for the CNE to 
announce the results (June 4).  Both sides are celebrating 
triumph for now, but just as the government has been 
intimidating and harassing the opposition prior to this 
weekend, it will continue to do so, keeping tensions elevated 
in the coming days. 
SHAPIRO 
 
 
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      2004CARACA01861 - CONFIDENTIAL