US embassy cable - 04DUBLIN811

UNCLAS DUBLIN 000811 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, EUN 
SUBJECT: Despite the Rumors, Irish PM Ahern Not 
        Likely as the Next President of the EU 
        Commission 
 
 
1.  (SBU) Summary:  European and Irish media have 
labeled Irish PM Ahern a front runner for the EU 
Commission president.  Ahern, one of the EU's longest 
serving PMs, has won wide approval for his management 
thus far of the EU Presidency, and his profile in 
Europe has never been higher.  However, Ahern has, on 
more than one occasion, ruled himself out of the 
running, and we believe him when he says he will not 
move to Brussels.  Current European Parliament 
president (and Irishman) Pat Cox is not seen here as 
emerging as a compromise choice.  End Summary. 
 
Ahern's EU Star In The Ascendancy 
--------------------------------- 
 
2.  (SBU)  When Europe's media focused on Ireland for 
the May 1st accession celebrations, PM Bertie Ahern's 
name first cropped up as a candidate for the post of 
EU Commission president.  (Commission President 
Romano Prodi will step down from his job in October 
2004.)  Rumors in the Irish media spread when the 
Financial Times Germany (May 13), weighed in with a 
profile of Ahern, emphasizing his legendary powers of 
negotiation and stating how this would qualify him 
for the role of Commission president.  The "Times" of 
London followed suit. 
 
3.   (SBU)  In many respects, Ahern would be an ideal 
candidate.  He has rolled up his sleeves over the 
past five months and thrown himself into the job of 
President of the European Council, successfully 
defusing intra-EU friction from the previous 
Presidency, overseeing the smooth accession of 10 new 
EU members, and generating optimism on concluding the 
IGC and agreeing a constitutional treaty by the June 
16-17 EU Summit.  He has a wealth of EU knowledge 
from his position as one of the longest-serving EU 
leaders, and an Irish Commission President should be 
broadly acceptable to larger states like Germany and 
France.  Ahern also enjoys an excellent personal 
relationship with British PM Blair, forged in the 
Northern Ireland peace process. 
 
But There's No Place Like Home 
------------------------------- 
 
4.  (SBU)  However, when asked by a leader of one of 
the  opposition parties in the Parliament on May 19 
whether he would be seeking the position of President 
of the Commission, Ahern responded with a very 
definite "no."  A savvy political operator, Ahern 
might well be playing coy were it not for the fact 
that Ahern is very much a domestic political animal. 
Until now, he has kept foreign travel to a minimum 
throughout his public life -- so much so, there are 
stories of Ahern traveling long and late to return to 
Dublin for the night.  Although a committed European, 
he has never immersed himself in EU politics, prior 
to the Presidency.  Nor does he speak French; he is a 
genuine "old boy" from north Dublin, with a distinct 
accent (in English and in Irish) to match.  Most 
observers bet that Ahern will seek another five-year 
term as PM in the next general election in 2007. 
While hard to predict now, Ahern's coalition would 
have a real chance at a third term, if the economic 
upswing continues. 
 
If Not Bertie, Who? 
------------------- 
 
5.  (SBU)  When asked, Ahern stated that the GOI 
could well support the candidature of outgoing 
European Parliament President Pat Cox, or any Irish 
candidate who could demonstrate that s/he had the 
support of other member states.  It was a clever 
formulation in response.  As EU President, Ireland is 
not supposed to lobby for any candidate.  We note, 
however, that Cox, an Independent MEP, is not close 
to Ahern's Fianna Fail party.  Instead, Ahern is 
likely to nominate a serving cabinet minister, 
possibly Finance minister Charlie McCreevy, as 
Ireland's next Commissioner. 
 
 
KENNY