US embassy cable - 01HARARE1798

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 001798 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER 
LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY 
PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS 
NAIROBI FOR TERRY PFLAUMER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL. 06/04/11 
TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, MARR, PINS, PINR, ZI 
SUBJECT: MDC LEADER DISCUSSES ZANU-PF STRATEGY, SOUTH AFRICA, THE 
ZIMBABWEAN MILITARY, AND SECRETARY POWELL'S REMARKS 
 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  01798  01 OF 02  051323Z 
REF:  HARARE 1784 
 
CLASSIFIED BY CHARGE D'AFFAIRES EARL M. IRVING.  REASONS: 1.5 (B) 
AND (D). 
 
SUMMARY 
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1.  (C) MOVEMENT FOR DEMOCRATIC CHANGE (MDC) PRESIDENT MORGAN 
TSVANGIRAI TOLD CHARGE ON JUNE 4 THAT THE DEATHS THE PAST MONTH 
 
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OF THREE ZANU-PF STALWARTS, THE LOSS OF THE MASVINGO MAYORAL 
ELECTION, AND THE BACKLASH FROM THE WAR VETERANS' "LABOR DISPUTE" 
CAMPAIGN MIGHT LEAD THE RULING PARTY TO REASSESS ITS CAMPAIGN 
TACTICS.  THE MDC PRESIDENT PRAISED SECRETARY POWELL'S RECENT 
REMARKS, SAYING THEY PUT ADDITIONAL PRESSURE ON SOUTH AFRICA TO 
DO SOMETHING ABOUT ZIMBABWE.  TSVANGIRAI SAID THE MDC ENJOYS GOOD 
RELATIONS WITH SOUTH AFRICA AND THE ANC, BUT HE WAS CONCERNED 
THAT DEMOCRATIC ALLIANCE LEADER TONY LEON'S OUTSPOKENNESS 
BOLSTERS MUGABE'S EFFORTS TO PORTRAY THE ZIMBABWEAN OPPOSITION 
PARTY AS A FRONT FOR WHITE INTERESTS.   THE MDC TAKES SERIOUSLY 
MUGABE'S THREAT "NEVER, EVER" TO ALLOW IT TO GOVERN ZIMBABWE AND 
BELIEVES THREE-QUARTERS OF THE ARMED FORCES WILL SUPPORT IT IN 
THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION EXPECTED IN 2002.  END 
SUMMARY. 
 
2.  (C) CHARGE, ACCOMPANIED BY POLITICAL SECTION CHIEF, CALLED 
BRIEFLY ON MOVEMENT FOR DEMOCRATIC CHANGE (MDC) PRESIDENT MORGAN 
TSVANGIRAI ON JUNE 4.  CHARGE INFORMED TSVANGIRAI THAT ASSISTANT 
 
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SECRETARY KANSTEINER HAD RECENTLY BEEN CONFIRMED BY THE U.S. 
 
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SENATE AND NOTED THAT WE WERE AWARE THAT TSVANGIRAI PLANNED TO 
VISIT WASHINGTON FOR SEVERAL DAYS AT THE END OF JUNE -- FOLLOWING 
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PAGE 03        HARARE  01798  01 OF 02  051323Z 
A TWO-WEEK LEADERSHIP SEMINAR AT HARVARD UNIVERSITY.  HE 
SUGGESTED THAT MEMBERS OF THE ADMINISTRATION WOULD BE INTERESTED 
IN HEARING THE MDC PRESIDENT'S VIEWS. 
 
DEATHS OF GEZI, MAHACHI, AND HUNZVI 
----------------------------------- 
 
3.  (C) ASKED HIS THOUGHTS ON THE LIKELY IMPACT OF THE DEATH OF 
WAR VETERAN LEADER CHENJERAI "HITLER" HUNZVI, TSVANGIRAI REPLIED, 
LOOKING SKYWARD, THAT "SOMEONE UP THERE WHERE ZANU-PF DOES NOT 
HAVE A MONOPOLY ON POWER" MUST BE LOOKING AFTER ZIMBABWEANS. 
THINGS ARE NOT GOING WELL FOR ZANU-PF, TSVANGIRAI ASSERTED. 
DURING THE PAST MONTH, THE RULING PARTY HAS SUFFERED THE 
DEVASTATING LOSS OF THREE FIGURES CRITICAL TO ITS TACTICS OF 
VIOLENCE AND INTIMIDATION -- THE MINISTER OF DEFENSE, THE 
MINISTER OF YOUTH DEVELOPMENT, GENDER, AND EMPLOYMENT CREATION, 
AND NOW HUNZVI.  ZANU-PF'S LOSS TO THE MDC IN THE MASVINGO 
MAYORAL ELECTION HAD BEEN EMBARRASSING FOR THE RULING PARTY.  IN 
ADDITION, THE RECENT EFFORT BY WAR VETERANS TO RESOLVE LABOR 
DISPUTES HAD BACKFIRED BADLY FOR ZANU-PF, ALIENATING BOTH 
ZIMBABWEAN VOTERS AND THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY.   THE MDC 
PRESIDENT SURMISED THAT THE RULING PARTY CONSEQUENTLY MIGHT BE 
REASSESSING ITS STRATEGY AND COULD DECIDE TO TRY RUNNING A 
"LEGITIMATE" CAMPAIGN IN THE BULAWAYO MAYORAL RACE SCHEDULED TO 
TAKE PLACE JUNE 23-24.  TSVANGIRAI INSISTED, HOWEVER, THAT SUCH A 
TACTICAL CHANGE WOULD ACCOMPLISH LITTLE IN BULAWAYO, AS AN MDC 
VICTORY THERE WAS ALL BUT A FOREGONE CONCLUSION. 
 
SECRETARY POWELL'S REMARKS AND SOUTH AFRICA'S ROLE 
 
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--------------------------------------------- ----- 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 04        HARARE  01798  01 OF 02  051323Z 
4.  (C) THE MDC PRESIDENT SAID HE WAS PLEASED WITH SECRETARY 
POWELL'S REMARKS ABOUT ZIMBABWE, DURING HIS VISIT TO PRETORIA, 
AND THAT THEY HAD SENT A MESSAGE TO THE GOVERNMENT OF ZIMBABWE 
THAT "MUGABE'S TIME IS UP."  HE BELIEVED POWELL'S COMMENTS WOULD 
PUT PRESSURE ON OTHER COUNTRIES WITH MORE INFLUENCE IN ZIMBABWE 
TO STEP UP THEIR EFFORTS TO EFFECT POSITIVE CHANGE, SOUTH AFRICA 
IN PARTICULAR. 
 
5.  (C) ASKED TO DESCRIBE THE MDC'S RELATIONSHIP WITH ZIMBABWE'S 
SOUTHERN NEIGHBOR, TSVANGIRAI PROVIDED AN UPBEAT ASSESSMENT, 
INSISTING THAT THE SOUTH AFRICAN GOVERNMENT (SAG) HAS "DEPARTED 
COMPLETELY" FROM ITS ORIGINAL APPROACH.  THE SAG, HE POINTED OUT, 
IS BEING MUCH MORE CRITICAL OF PRESIDENT MUGABE AND HIS 
GOVERNMENT, AND THE MDC ENJOYS POSITIVE TIES WITH THE SAG AND THE 
ANC.  TSVANGIRAI CONTINUED, HOWEVER, THAT PEOPLE LIKE DEMOCRATIC 
ALLIANCE LEADER TONY LEON "DO NOT HELP MATTERS."  LEON ACTS AS IF 
HE IS SPEAKING ON BEHALF OF THE MDC, A FACT WHICH PLAYS INTO 
MUGABE'S ATTEMPTS TO PORTRAY ZIMBABWE'S PRINCIPAL OPPOSITION 
PARTY AS MERELY A FRONT FOR WHITE INTERESTS.  TSVANGIRAI WAS 
PARTICULARLY UPSET ABOUT A QUESTION LEON RECENTLY POSED TO 
PRESIDENT THABO MBEKI IN PARLIAMENT ABOUT LAND REFORM IN 
ZIMBABWE, WHICH APPARENTLY FORCED THE SOUTH AFRICAN PRESIDENT TO 
ENDORSE THE GOZ'S FAST TRACK RESETTLEMENT PROGRAM. 
 
WILL MUGABE ALLOW MDC TO TAKE POWER? 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTO9067 
 
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ACTION AF-00 
 
INFO  LOG-00   NP-00    AID-00   AMAD-00  ACQ-00   CIAE-00  USNW-00 
      DINT-00  DODE-00  DOTE-00  SRPP-00  DS-00    EB-00    EUR-00 
      FAAE-00  FBIE-00  VC-00    H-01     TEDE-00  INR-00   IO-00 
      LAB-01   L-00     VCE-00   AC-01    NSAE-00  OIC-02   OMB-01 
      OPIC-01  PA-00    PM-00    PRS-00   ACE-00   P-00     SP-00 
      IRM-00   STR-00   TRSE-00  USIE-00  PMB-00   DSCC-00  PRM-01 
      DRL-02   G-00     NFAT-00  SAS-00     /010W 
                  ------------------F485D1  051323Z /38 
P 051241Z JUN 01 
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 9029 
INFO NSC WASHDC PRIORITY 
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY 
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 HARARE 001798 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER 
LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY 
PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS 
NAIROBI FOR TERRY PFLAUMER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL. 06/04/11 
TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, MARR, PINS, PINR, ZI 
SUBJECT: MDC LEADER DISCUSSES ZANU-PF STRATEGY, SOUTH AFRICA, THE 
ZIMBABWEAN MILITARY, AND SECRETARY POWELL'S REMARKS 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  01798  02 OF 02  051323Z 
------------------------------------ 
 
6.  (C) POLITICAL SECTION CHIEF RECALLED PRESIDENT MUGABE'S 
REMARK ON SEVERAL PUBLIC OCCASIONS THAT HE WOULD "NEVER, EVER" 
ALLOW THE MDC TO GOVERN ZIMBABWE AND ASKED HOW THE MDC WOULD 
RESPOND IF MUGABE STEALS NEXT YEAR'S PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION. 
TSVANGIRAI RESPONDED THAT HIS PARTY TAKES MUGABE'S THREAT 
 
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SERIOUSLY, AS IT WOULD BE NAIVE NOT TO, AND REALIZES THAT THERE 
IS A DIFFERENCE BETWEEN WINNING AN ELECTION AND WINNING POWER. 
THAT IS WHY HE AND OTHER SENIOR MDC OFFICIALS HAVE BEEN TRYING TO 
ENSURE THAT THE POLICE AND MILITARY ABIDE BY THE OUTCOME OF THE 
ELECTION, AN EFFORT WHICH HE CLAIMED HAD BORNE FRUIT.  WHILE 
ACKNOWLEDGING THAT THE MILITARY'S TOP BRASS RETAIN STRONG 
LOYALTIES TO MUGABE, TSVANGIRAI ASSERTED THAT THREE-QUARTERS OF 
THE ARMED FORCES ARE "WITH US." 
 
TSVANGIRAI'S COURT CASE 
 
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----------------------- 
 
7.  (C) WHEN ASKED ABOUT THE CHARGES PENDING AGAINST HIM FOR 
ALLEGEDLY INCITING VIOLENCE, TSVANGIRAI SEEMED GENUINELY 
UNCONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL OUTCOMES.  HE STATED THAT HE 
THOUGHT HIS LEGAL TEAM SHOULD HAVE AGREED TO PROCEED IN THE HIGH 
COURT, AS THE CHARGES WERE BASELESS AND THE CASE WOULD HAVE BEEN 
DISMISSED ON THE MERITS.  IN THE END, HOWEVER, TSVANGIRAI YIELDED 
TO HIS LAWYERS, WHO MAINTAINED THAT THE BEST STRATEGY WAS FIRST 
TO ASK THE SUPREME COURT TO RULE ON THE CONSTITUTIONALITY OF THE 
COLONIAL-ERA LAW UNDER WHICH HE HAS BEEN CHARGED. 
 
COMMENT 
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                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        HARARE  01798  02 OF 02  051323Z 
 
8.  (C) TSVANGIRAI WAS CONFIDENT AND UPBEAT, BUT OBVIOUSLY 
DISTRACTED BY HIS IMMINENT DEPARTURE FOR THE WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM 
IN DURBAN AND, SUBSEQUENTLY, FOR THE UNITED STATES.  HE WAS 
CLEARLY PLEASED ABOUT THE EVOLUTION OF THE MDC'S RELATIONSHIP 
WITH SOUTH AFRICA, AND THOUGHT THE PRIMARY VALUE OF SECRETARY 
POWELL'S RECENT REMARKS WAS TO EXERT PRESSURE ON PRETORIA TO "DO 
SOMETHING" TO STOP THE LAWLESSNESS AND STANCH THE ECONOMIC 
BLEEDING TO THE NORTH.  THE DEATHS OF GEZI, MAHACHI, AND HUNZVI 
HAVE CAUSED SIGNIFICANT PARANOIA WITHIN THE RULING PARTY, BUT 
THERE IS NO EVIDENCE TO SUPPORT TSVANGIRAI'S SPECULATION THAT 
ZANU-PF MIGHT AS A RESULT DECIDE TO JETTISON ITS TIME-TESTED 
CAMPAIGN TACTICS OF VIOLENCE AND INTIMIDATION.  INDEED, 
INDICATIONS ARE THAT URBAN AND RURAL VIOLENCE WILL CONTINUE TO BE 
ZANU-PF'S SIGNATURE TACTIC.  THAT THE MDC IS MAKING A DETERMINED 
EFFORT TO CULTIVATE THE MILITARY REVEALS POLITICAL MATURITY AND 
SAVVY, BUT TSVANGIRAI'S CLAIM THAT THREE-QUARTERS OF THE ARMED 
FORCES SUPPORT THE MDC STRIKES US AS A BIT OPTIMISTIC. 
 
IRVING 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
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