US embassy cable - 04ZAGREB978

C O N F I D E N T I A L  ZAGREB 000978 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/RPM (SHINAGLE) AND EUR/SCE 
USNATO FOR BRUCE ROGERS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/27/2014 
TAGS: PARM, PREL, HR, Defense Reform (Mil & NATO) 
SUBJECT: NATO SECRETARY GENERAL VISITS CROATIA 
 
Classified By: Poloff A.F.Godfrey for reasons 1.5 (b,d) 
 
1.  (C) In a brief visit to Zagreb on May 26, NATO Secretary 
General (SYG) Jaap de Hoop Scheffer "left a message of 
encouragement" for Croatia to move forward toward qualifying 
for an invitation to join the Alliance by making concrete 
progress in NATO's Membership Action Plan.  In an outbrief to 
NATO Ambassadors, the SYG said he was impressed with the new 
government's commitment to continued reforms, but noted with 
concern that if President Mesic gets his way, Croatia will 
waste scarce defense resources in directions that do not 
support accession to NATO.  In meetings with the President, 
PM, Foreign and Defense Ministers as well as at the 
Parliament, the SYG urged full cooperation with the ICTY and 
greater efforts to apprehend fugitive Ante Gotovina.  The SYG 
discussed the security environment in the region with the PM 
and was pessimistic about prospects for finding a long-term 
solution in Kosovo.  End Summary. 
 
A Tour of MAP Countries Before Istanbul 
--------------------------------------- 
 
2.  (C) On May 26, NATO Secretary General Jaap de Hoop 
Scheffer visited Croatia and met with the President, Prime 
Minister, Foreign and Defense Ministers and the Speaker of 
the Parliament.  In a briefing to NATO Ambassadors accredited 
to Croatia, the SYG said the Zagreb visit was the first stop 
in a trip to all three of NATO's MAP countries.  After 
visiting Skopje and Tirana, the SYG said he will attend a 
meeting of the North Atlantic Council at SFOR headquarters in 
Sarajevo.  The SYG said he was considering adding a stop in 
Belgrade to the trip, but no plans have been made so far. 
 
Croatia Wants a Fast Track To Membership 
---------------------------------------- 
 
3.  (C) The SYG said that one of the main reasons he 
scheduled this pre-Summit trip to the three MAP countries was 
to "leave a sign of encouragement" as the Istanbul Summit 
approaches.  He was impressed with Croatia's declared 
commitment to continue the reforms needed to qualify for 
membership.  The SYG said that PM Sanader was optimistic 
about Croatia's chances to enter the Alliance.  Sanader said 
Croatia has its NATO bid on a "parallel track" with its EU 
application; he said that Croatia aspires to "catch the EU 
train and arrive in the same car" as Bulgaria and Romania. 
Sanader sought advice from the SYG on how to work with the 
other MAP countries; whether Croatia can expect to accede to 
membership on its own or if its fate is tied to Albania and 
Macedonia.  The SYG said that candidates will be assessed on 
an individual basis, but in the meeting with NATO Ambassadors 
pointed out that while NATO and the EU have always talked 
about individual assessments, when it comes to enlargement, 
"they act in big bangs."  The SYG said that none of his 
interlocutors expected an invitation for Croatia at Istanbul. 
 
Cooperation On War Crimes 
------------------------- 
 
4.  (C) The SYG discussed cooperation with ICTY in all of his 
meetings with officials in Zagreb, and made this point 
particularly clear during his address to the Croatian 
parliament.  In meetings with the PM and FM, the SYG was told 
that Croatia expects ICTY Chief Prosecutor Carla del Ponte's 
upcoming report to the UNSC to be consistent with the "full 
cooperation" assessment she gave to the European Commission 
which led to the EC's positive "avis" on Croatia's EU 
membership application.  The SYG characterized both the PM 
and FM as very optimistic about del Ponte's upcoming report. 
Croatia does, however, expect some criticism inasmuch as it 
is not yet fully ready to accept war crimes cases from ICTY 
for trial by Croatian courts.  Sanader told the SYG that he 
understands how important the label of "full cooperation" is 
to NATO; the SYG said he "got the impression that he is 
sincere."  During the SYG's outbrief, the Ambassador stated 
plainly that the USG will not base its judgment solely on del 
Ponte's assessment of Croatia's cooperation; for us it 
essential that the GoC apprehend ICTY fugitive Gotovina and 
transfer him to ICTY custody.  The Ambassador said that the 
Croatian government is well aware that we consider Gotovina's 
fugitive status as an obstacle to Croatia's progress towards 
membership. 
 
President Pulling Croatia Off-Track on Defense Reform? 
--------------------------------------------- --------- 
 
5.  (C) The SYG said that he was struck by the difference in 
how the government and President view Croatia's priorities 
for defense reform.  He was briefed in meetings with the 
Defense and Foreign Ministers about the ongoing Strategic 
Defense Review and about discussions on force restructuring. 
He was pleased that the government is working to create a 
 
flexible, modern force with capabilities that NATO can use. 
In his meeting with President Mesic, however, the SYG heard 
about plans to spend scarce defense resources to refit 
Croatia's fighter force, which demonstrates either a 
disregard for or a lack of understanding of NATO's 
priorities.  The SYG said this internal conflict is common in 
transition countries, but Sanader and his cabinet will be 
challenged to bring the President's archaic vision of the 
armed forces around.  The structure of Croatia's government 
does not help, the SYG continued.  A simple question like 
"who is the commander-in-chief" prompts a long discussion. 
It is still not clear, the SYG said, whether PM Sanader or 
President Mesic will occupy the one chair allotted to Croatia 
at the EAPC meeting in Istanbul. 
 
Regional Relations -- Concern About Serbia, Kosovo 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
 
6.  (C) The SYG discussed relations in the region with 
Sanader and FM Zuzul at some length.  He reported that 
Sanader was committed to improving relations with neighbors, 
but was concerned about developments in Serbia.  Sanader said 
that he had extended the policy of allowing citizens of SaM 
visa-free travel to Croatia and described ongoing high-level 
contacts with government officials in SaM and hoped that 
these trends would continue.  Sanader expressed concern about 
political developments in Belgrade, particularly about the 
strength of the Serb Radical Party, which he said has as part 
of its party doctrine a goal of re-annexing Croatian 
territory.  Should the Serb Radical Party candidate win in 
June 13 Presidential elections, it would complicate a wide 
range of issues, including in Kosovo and Republika Srpksa, 
Sanader told the SYG. 
 
7.  (C) The SYG told NATO Ambassadors he had no answers for 
Sanader on how the international community should proceed on 
Kosovo.  He spoke bluntly, in very pessimistic terms, to NATO 
Ambassadors about the situation in Kosovo, and said he is 
"not confident" in the current plan; "it is difficult to talk 
about 'Standards before Status' when there are no standards." 
 
 
Strong Words for Parliament 
--------------------------- 
 
8.  (C) In addition to ICTY cooperation, the SYG used his 
speech to the Croatian parliament to press for continued 
efforts on refugee return, judicial reform and defense 
reform.  He pressed legislators to continue to approve the 
necessary budget support to modernize Croatia's defense 
forces.  He also highlighted that the two-thirds majority 
vote in parliament required before deploying troops abroad 
would restrict Croatia's ability to respond to a rapid NATO 
deployment. 
 
Public Support for NATO Falling 
------------------------------- 
 
9.  (C) The SYG said he had discussed the drop in public 
support for NATO in several of his meetings with GoC 
officials.  The GoC recognized the challenge, but pointed out 
that the public has firmly associated NATO with U.S. policy 
and Iraq.  The Ambassador concurred that the Croatian public 
did not understand the broad goals of NATO and challenged his 
ambassadorial colleagues in Zagreb to be more active in 
explaining publicly the benefits of membership in the 
Alliance.  The German Ambassador said that two other factors 
added to the drop in public support.  The first is that the 
security environment in the region has changed; Croatians no 
longer feel an imminent military threat.  The second is less 
tangible; many Croatians are tired of being lectured to, he 
said.  We should make it plain in our public statements that 
the Alliance wants Croatia to succeed and that NATO will 
benefit from Croatia's membership. 
FRANK 
 
 
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