US embassy cable - 04AMMAN4236

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 AMMAN 004236 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/27/2014 
TAGS: PREL, PHUM, IZ, JO 
SUBJECT: IRAQIS IN JORDAN FEAR JUNE 30 HANDOVER WILL RESULT 
IN MORE VIOLENCE 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Edward Gnehm for reasons 1.5(b), (d) 
 
1. (C) SUMMARY: There are Iraqis in Jordan who fear that the 
June 30 transfer of authority to the Iraqi Interim Government 
(IIG) will result in an escalation of violence, and support 
the presence of coalition forces until a stable government is 
in place.  END SUMMARY. 
 
----------------------------- 
JUNE 30 TRANSFER OF AUTHORITY 
----------------------------- 
 
2. (C) A group of Iraqis residing in Jordan told PolOff May 
23 that they do not believe the June 30 transfer of authority 
to the Iraq Interim Government (IIG) will be real, and fear 
that insurgents will increase their efforts to cause 
instability if coalition forces withdraw or appear to have 
only a limited role.  The group said that they had no 
immediate plans to return to Iraq due to the violence, poor 
security and job situation there, despite claims of working 
excessive hours in Jordan for low wages and cramped living 
conditions.  They asserted that many Iraqis in Jordan do not 
want coalition forces to leave Iraq and hope that they will 
stay until a real Iraqi government can govern on its own. 
The group did not criticize the coalition and asserted that 
most Iraqis in Jordan and Iraq are happy that Saddam Hussein 
is no longer in power. 
 
---------------------- 
JANUARY 2005 ELECTIONS 
---------------------- 
 
3. (C) The group feared that the planned elections in January 
2005 may result in a government just as oppressive as the 
Saddam Hussein regime.  They worried that elections in Iraq 
would lead to an increase in instability as the election 
losers would turn to violence to assume power.  Many Iraqis, 
they asserted, do not understand democratic elections to 
establish authority and power; only the type of rule 
demonstrated under Saddam Hussein. 
 
--------------------- 
CHALABI'S FUTURE ROLE 
--------------------- 
 
4. (C) The group said that INC leader Ahmad Chalabi is hoping 
for the same level of publicity and influence as Shia upstart 
Moqtada Al-Sadr to secure a future position of power in the 
Iraqi government.  Many Iraqis in Jordan and Iraq, they 
claimed, hold a negative view of Chalabi and question his 
ability to govern given his more than 25 years in exile.  The 
group characterized Chalabi as "crooked"; a man who does not 
care for the welfare of common Iraqis, only for power.  They 
hoped that he will not secure a position in the IIG. 
 
--------------------------------- 
IRAQI LIVING CONDITIONS IN JORDAN 
--------------------------------- 
 
5.  (C) Many of the illegal Iraqis in Jordan, they asserted, 
live in small, tight communities.  They said that 
unemployment among illegal Iraqis is high.  Those who have 
jobs are usually employed on a monthly contract, working long 
hours for a monthly income averaging around 150 USD.  This 
type of employment, they claimed, is outside the purview of 
Jordanian authorities.  Illegal Iraqis frequently combine 
households with relatives or other Iraqis to reduce rental 
costs.  They also claimed that many Iraqis do not go out at 
night for fear of detention and deportation by Jordanian 
police (although the Embassy has heard of very few cases of 
deportation of illegal Iraqis). 
 
------- 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
6. (C) The group comprised four unrelated individuals from 
different backgrounds--one married Kurdish man from 
Sulaymaniyeh, one married Turkmani woman from Erbil, one 
Christian of mixed Iraqi and Armenian background from 
Baghdad, and a single Sunni Muslim man from Baghdad.  All 
four individuals left Iraq due to discrimination or 
persecution under Saddam Hussein.  The single Muslim man 
claimed to have fled to Jordan with his mother four years ago 
after learning that his father, a government employee, had 
"disappeared".  The married Kurdish man, married Turkmani 
woman, and single woman of Armenian background claimed 
leaving Iraq within the last five years due to lack of job 
opportunities based on ethnicity, not out of fear of 
persecution.  Three of the four claimed to have traveled to 
Iraq in the past year hoping to find work, characterizing how 
rumors describing Iraq as "just like Kuwait" had influenced 
them to travel to Iraq.  Each said cautiously that it was not 
very difficult to return to Jordan.  Two of the group claimed 
having a higher-education background.  Three claimed to live 
in combined households, maintaining low wage work as 
hairstylist, grocer assistant, and small restaurant owner. 
Despite the group's complaints of long work hours, low wages, 
cramped living conditions and problems with public schools, 
all were resolved to stay in Jordan until the employment and 
security situation in Iraq improves.  Iraqis in Jordan, they 
asserted, rely on the word of relatives in Iraq and Iraqis 
coming into Jordan illegally for their news, not the media. 
They believed that the U.S. would make good on its promises 
of assistance to Iraq, but did not believe this assistance 
would improve conditions in Iraq in the near term. 
 
7. (U) Baghdad minimize considered. 
 
Visit Embassy Amman's classified website at 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/amman/ 
or access the site through the State Department's SIPRNET 
home page. 
 
GNEHM