US embassy cable - 04ZAGREB968

C O N F I D E N T I A L  ZAGREB 000968 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/26/2014 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, HR, Political Parties/Elections 
SUBJECT: PRESIDENTIAL ADVISOR OPTIMISTIC ABOUT MESIC'S 
REELECTION PROSPECTS 
 
 
Classified By: Polecon Counselor Nicholas Hill, for reasons 1.5 (B) and 
 (D). 
 
Summary 
-------- 
 
1.   (C) In what was mostly an inside baseball discussion 
about Croatian politics, President Mesic's top Domestic 
Policy Advisor, Igor Dekanic, told us on May 26 that he was 
optimistic about Mesic's reelection prospects -- although an 
official announcement of his candidacy was still months away. 
 Mesic had the likely support of all the key opposition 
parties and maybe even of the HDZ.  Dekanic praised the 
current government; PM Sanader was doing more to implement a 
reform agenda than the prior SDP-led government.   Mesic's 
agenda is the same as the current government's, including 
getting into NATO and the EU, and cooperating with the War 
Crimes Tribunal.  So long as Sanader could keep his party's 
nationalists at bay, the HDZ was on the right course and 
Mesic was comfortable working with the government.  That 
said, according to Dekanic, Sanader needed to show progress 
on his reform agenda to keep his rank and file happy.  End 
Summary. 
 
2.   (C) We spoke to Igor Dekanic, President Mesic's Domestic 
Policy Advisor, in his offices on May 26.  He was very 
satisfied with Mesic's position in the run up to presidential 
elections this coming winter.  He said that Mesic had 
carefully courted support across a range of political 
parties, including virtually all the members of the previous 
ruling coalition.  A number of parties, including the 
Croatian Peoples Party (HNS), the Liberal Party (LS), and 
Libra, have already stated publicly that they will support 
the President.  The Social Democrats, the leading opposition 
party, look likely to line up behind Mesic.  Owing in part to 
its own disarray, the Peasants Party (HSS) is also likely to 
back Mesic, although they may wait until the last moment 
before showing support.  Dekanic said even those parties 
contemplating fielding candidates to run against Mesic were 
not necessarily doing it with a view to winning.  Should HDZ 
run current Deputy Prime Minister Andrej Hebrang for 
president, representing the party's right-wing base, he would 
lose.  This may even help Sanader keep the party's 
nationalists in their box. 
 
Foreign Policy on Domestic Politics 
----------------------------------- 
 
3.   (C) We asked Dekanic how foreign policy -- particularly 
relations with Serbia-Montenegro -- was affecting domestic 
politics in Croatia at the moment.  He said the situation was 
stable.  SaM President Marovic had just come to Zagreb and 
had very productive meetings -- although both sides agreed 
not to get too much in the weeds on issues, given the 
political uncertainty in Belgrade at the moment.  We asked if 
Mesic's recent snub of SaM Foreign Minister Vuk Draskovic 
reflected Mesic's playing domestic politics in an election 
year.  In short, yes, Dekanic answered.  Turning more 
serious, Dekanic described Draskovic as a metaphor for the 
whole political situation in Serbia right now.  Hard-line 
nationalism had made a comeback, and the emergence of 
Tomislav Nikolic -- whose Serbian Radical Party still claims 
sizable parts of Croatia as its own -- was troubling. 
Croatia, Dekanic said, will try to prevent a similar 
nationalist backlash.  "We don't want to wake up the same 
sort of people here."  (He conceded that Draskovic's 
nationalism was not of the same virulence as Nikolic's.) 
 
4.   (C) According to Dekanic, keeping Croatia on the reform 
track -- toward NATO and the EU -- was essential.  "We need 
progress to keep the nationalists at bay."  He said that 
President Mesic remains a staunch supporter of the War Crimes 
Tribunal.  PM Sanader was also doing everything he could to 
cooperate with the ICTY, in accordance with Croatia's 
obligations.  This would continue, although Dekanic conceded 
that the current government must oppose elements of recent 
indictments that call into question the legacy of former 
president Franjo Tudjman.  We stressed to Dekanic the 
importance of seeing indictee Ante Gotovina delivered to The 
Hague.  Dekanic agreed, adding, however, that if Gotovina 
remained an impediment to Croatia's reform process, the 
current HDZ government would have a difficult time keeping 
its nationalist elements in check.  Gotovina could "tip the 
scales" inside the HDZ, and then Sanader will have real 
problems. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
5.   (C) Politics in Croatia are fairly straight forward 
these days, and Mesic's prospects for reelection are looking 
about as good as they can at this stage in the election 
cycle.  His approval ratings are consistently in the 80s. 
Dekanic does describe a threat: reawakening Croatia's 
 
 
nationalists.  This is more a long-term problem for PM 
Sanader than for Croatia as a whole.  The Prime Minister's 
party, the HDZ, is best looked at like a bicycle.  So long as 
there is forward movement on Sanader's reform agenda, then 
the party's reformers should remain in charge.  When there is 
no more forward movement, then HDZ -- particularly its 
current leadership -- could have problems. 
 
FRANK 
 
 
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