US embassy cable - 01HARARE1751

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 001751 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER 
 
LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY 
 
PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS 
 
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER 
 
PASS USAID FOR AFR/SA - C. PALMA 
 
PASS AF/PD FOR SANDERS 
 
PASS USTR FOR ROSA WHITAKER 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  01751  01 OF 02  311430Z 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/31/11 
TAGS: PINS, PGOV, MARR, PGOV, SOCI, PHUM, PREL, ZI 
SUBJECT: ZIMBABWE COUP PLOT REPORT TOUCHES A RAW NERVE 
 
CLASSIFIED BY CHARGE D'AFFAIRES EARL M. IRVING FOR 
REASONS 1.5 (B) AND (D). 
 
1.  (C) SUMMARY: THE GOVERNMENT OF ZIMBABWE HAS 
VIGOROUSLY DISPUTED A MAY 29 ARTICLE IN THE BRITISH 
"GUARDIAN" NEWSPAPER THAT STATES THAT ZIMBABWEAN 
MILITARY OFFICERS ARE PLANNING A COUP AGAINST PRESIDENT 
MUGABE.  WE HAVE BEEN UNABLE TO CORROBORATE THE 
SUBSTANCE OF THE REPORT.  THE GOZ'S INITIAL DENIALS 
RELIED EXCLUSIVELY ON COMMENTS BY SOUTH AFRICAN 
OFFICIALS DISTANCING THEMSELVES FROM THE STORY, FOLLOWED 
ONLY A SECOND DAY BY THE ZIMBABWEAN DEFENSE FORCE 
COMMANDER AWKWARDLY DISMISSING THE REPORT.  THE 
"GUARDIAN'S" HARARE STRINGER INFORMED US THAT THE OFF- 
THE-RECORD SOURCE FOR THE STORY WAS PRESIDENT THABO 
MBEKI.  THE VEHEMENCE OF THE ZIMBABWEAN GOVERNMENT'S 
REACTION REFLECTS THE INCREASING PARANOIA WITHIN THE 
RULING PARTY FOLLOWING THE RECENT DEATHS OF TWO 
MINISTERS IN CAR ACCIDENTS -- HISTORICALLY A FAVORITE 
ZANU-PF METHOD OF ASSASSINATION -- AND GROWING CONCERNS 
ABOUT THE LOYALTY OF THE MILITARY RANK-AND-FILE.  END 
SUMMARY. 
 
2.  (U) AN ARTICLE WRITTEN BY HUGO YOUNG IN THE MAY 29 
EDITION OF THE "GUARDIAN" NEWSPAPER REPORTING THAT 
SENIOR ZIMBABWE MILITARY OFFICERS WILL LAUNCH A COUP 
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AGAINST PRESIDENT MUGABE HAS STRUCK A RAW NERVE IN 
HARARE.  THE ARTICLE ALLEGES THAT ZIMBABWEAN MILITARY 
COMMANDERS INFORMED THE SOUTH AFRICAN GOVERNMENT THAT 
THEY EXPECT A FOOD CRISIS LATER THIS YEAR WILL PROVE A 
FLASH POINT THAT COULD RESULT IN FOOD RIOTS.  THE ARMY 
WOULD BE FORCED TO INTERVENE IN SUPPORT OF THE POLICE, 
BUT WOULD NOT USE FORCE AGAINST ORDINARY ZIMBABWEANS, 
THE ARTICLE CONTINUES.  IF THE MUGABE GOVERNMENT ORDERS 
THE MILITARY TO SHOOT, IT WOULD INSTEAD OPT TO TAKE 
POWER, THE "GUARDIAN" STORY ALLEGES, AND SOUTH AFRICAN 
OFFICIALS BELIEVE THAT SENIOR ZIMBABWEAN MILITARY 
OFFICERS ALREADY HAVE MADE PLANS TO DO SO.  THE BRITISH 
NEWSPAPER CONTINUED THAT, ACCORDING TO SOUTH AFRICAN 
INTELLIGENCE, THE COUP LEADER WOULD BE THE COMMANDER OF 
THE AIR FORCE, AIR MARSHAL PERENCE SHIRI. 
 
3.  (C) HARARE STRINGER FOR THE "GUARDIAN" NEWSPAPER, 
ANDREW MELDRUM, TOLD CHARGE ON MAY 30 THAT YOUNG HAD 
NONE OTHER THAN THABO MBEKI AS HIS OFF-THE-RECORD 
SOURCE.  DIANE CORNER, THE BRITISH DEPUTY HIGH 
COMMISSIONER IN HARARE, DESCRIBED YOUNG AS A LEADING 
POLITICAL COMMENTATOR AND, INDEED, ONE OF THE MOST 
INFLUENTIAL JOURNALISTS IN BRITAIN.  SHE CONTINUED THAT 
WHILE FOREIGN AFFAIRS IS NOT YOUNG'S USUAL BEAT, THE 
"GUARDIAN" FELT IT HAD TO SEND ONE OF ITS TOP PEOPLE TO 
SECURE AN INTERVIEW WITH MBEKI PRIOR TO THE SOUTH 
AFRICAN PRESIDENT'S VISIT TO LONDON IN JUNE.  WE HAVE 
CHECKED OUT THE STORY WITH CONTACTS IN THE ZIMBABWEAN 
MILITARY, INTELLIGENCE SERVICES AND IN THE SOUTH AFRICAN 
HIGH COMMISSION, BUT HAVE BEEN UNABLE TO CORROBORATE THE 
SUBSTANCE OF THE REPORTS.  MOREOVER, THE MAY 30 EDITION 
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OF THE "GUARDIAN" GAVE PROMINENT PLAY TO STRONG DENIALS 
FROM SOUTH AFRICAN GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS THAT THEY HAD 
ANY KNOWLEDGE OF A COUP PLOT. 
 
4.  (SBU) THE ZIMBABWEAN GOVERNMENT HAS DENIED THIS 
SPECULATIVE STORY WITH VIGOR.  GOVERNMENT-CONTROLLED 
RADIO, TELEVISION AND PRINT MEDIA HAVE DISMISSED THE 
ALLEGATIONS WITH CONTEMPT AND QUOTED THE SOUTH AFRICAN 
LEADERSHIP AS DISTANCING ITSELF FROM THE STORY.  ON MAY 
31 THE PRO-GOVERNMENT "HERALD" NEWSPAPER QUOTED THE 
INARTICULATE AND NORMALLY RECLUSIVE DEFENSE FORCE 
COMMANDER, GENERAL VITALI 
S ZVINAVASHE, AS MALADROITLY 
DISMISSING THE COUP PLOT REPORTS.  "IT IS NOT TRUE," THE 
PAPER CITES THE GENERAL AS HAVING SAID, "BECAUSE THAT 
TYPE OF THING IS NOT BEING EXPECTED IN THIS COUNTRY.  I, 
AS THE COMMANDER, WOULD HAVE KNOWN ABOUT THE COUP.  IT 
IS NOT TRUE."  "THE HERALD" ALSO RAN A SCURRILOUS 
ARTICLE IN ITS MAY 30 EDITION ALLEGING THAT THE 
"GUARDIAN" PIECE WAS ANOTHER STEP IN THE BRITISH PLOT TO 
DESTABILIZE AND DISCREDIT PRESIDENT MUGABE'S GOVERNMENT. 
WE NOTED WITH SOME SURPRISE THAT THE "HERALD'S" INITIAL 
 
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                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ8893 
 
PAGE 01        HARARE  01751  02 OF 02  311430Z 
ACTION AF-00 
 
INFO  LOG-00   NP-00    AID-00   ACQ-00   CIAE-00  DODE-00  SRPP-00 
      DS-00    FBIE-00  VC-00    TEDE-00  INR-00   LAB-01   VCE-00 
      NSAE-00  PM-00    SSO-00   SS-00    STR-00   USIE-00  PMB-00 
      DSCC-00  PRM-01   DRL-02   NFAT-00  SAS-00     /004W 
                  ------------------F2C324  311430Z /38 
O 311412Z MAY 01 
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 9000 
INFO NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE 
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY PRIORITY 
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI PRIORITY 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 HARARE 001751 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER 
 
LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY 
 
PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS 
 
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER 
 
PASS USAID FOR AFR/SA - C. PALMA 
 
PASS AF/PD FOR SANDERS 
 
PASS USTR FOR ROSA WHITAKER 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  01751  02 OF 02  311430Z 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/31/11 
TAGS: PINS, MARR, PGOV, SOCI, PHUM, PREL, ZI, SF 
SUBJECT: ZIMBABWE COUP PLOT REPORT TOUCHES A RAW NERVE 
 
REACTION TO THE "GUARDIAN" STORY (MAY 30) RELIED SOLELY 
UPON SOUTH AFRICAN DENIALS OF THE ALLEGED COUP PLOT. 
THE "HERALD" REPORTED NO REACTION FROM THE ZIMBABWEAN 
MILITARY UNTIL THE MAY 31 EDITION. 
 
5.  (C) COMMENT: THE "GUARDIAN" STORY APPEARED AT A TIME 
WHEN SENIOR MEMBERS OF THE ZIMBABWEAN GOVERNMENT ARE 
FEELING MORE PARANOID THAN EVER.  IN THE SPACE OF ONE 
MONTH, TWO CABINET MINISTERS HAVE.PERISHED IN CAR 
ACCIDENTS, A POLITICAL ASSASSINATION METHOD THAT HAS 
BEEN USED BY ZANU-PF IN THE PAST.  MANY ZIMBABWEANS WITH 
WHOM WE SPEAK ASSUME THAT THE TWO MINISTERS WERE VICTIMS 
OF A HIT.  THE MOST COMMON SPECULATION IS THAT 36 YEAR- 
OLD YOUTH DEVELOPMENT, GENDER, AND EMPLOYMENT CREATION 
MINISTER BORDER GEZI WAS KILLED BY ORDER OF THE RULING 
PARTY'S OLD GUARD, WHO BELIEVED HE HAD ACQUIRED TOO MUCH 
INFLUENCE TOO QUICKLY.  IN RETURN, ACCORDING TO THIS 
LINE OF SPECULATION, GEZI'S SUPPORTERS DECIDED TO SEND A 
MESSAGE BY PLANNING THE MURDER OF MAHACHI, A LEADING 
MEMBER OF THE OLD GUARD.  WE HAVE NO EVIDENCE, HOWEVER, 
THAT WOULD INDICATE THAT THE DEATHS OF THE TWO MINISTERS 
WERE ANYTHING OTHER THAN TRAGIC ROAD ACCIDENTS. 
 
6.  (C) COMMENT CONTINUED: THE GOVERNMENT'S RABID 
RESPONSE TWO DAYS RUNNING TO THE COUP STORY REVEALS ITS 
VULNERABILITY AND PERCEPTION THAT IT IS UNDER SIEGE. 
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THE VEHEMENT DENIALS MIGHT ALSO REFLECT A CONCERN ABOUT 
THE LOYALTY OF THE MILITARY'S RANK-AND-FILE.  IN 
ADDITION, THE MILITARY IS SOMETHING OF AN OFF-LIMITS 
TOPIC FOR THE PRESS HERE.  IN JANUARY 1999, AFTER THE 
INDEPENDENT "THE STANDARD" NEWSPAPER RAN A STORY ABOUT A 
COUP PLOT, THE ARMY ABDUCTED THE NEWSPAPER'S EDITOR AND 
THE STORY'S WRITER, HOLDING THEM INCOMMUNICADO FOR A 
WEEK DURING WHICH TIME SOLDIERS TORTURED THEM.  IN MARCH 
1999 POLICE ARRESTED THE PUBLISHER AND REPORTER OF "THE 
MIRROR," AN OSTENSIBLY INDEPENDENT NEWSPAPER, FOR A 
STORY IT RAN ON A HEADLESS BODY OF SOLDIER HAVING BEEN 
RETURNED FROM THE CONGO.  THE BACKLASH FROM THE HARARE 
DIPLOMATIC CORPS AND WORLD PRESS FRATERNITY MADE THE 
GOVERNMENT HERE LOOK RIDICULOUS AND TAUGHT IT TO TREAD 
LIGHTLY WITH THE SCRIBES.  RATHER THAN REMAIN IN 
SECLUSION AND MOURNING FOR HIS DEAD COMRADE IN ARMS, THE 
LATE DEFENSE MINISTER MOVEN MAHACHI, PRESIDENT MUGABE 
BARELY BURIED THE MAN BEFORE JETTING OFF TO JAKARTA FOR 
THE.G-15 MEETING, AS IF TO SHOW HIS CONTEMPT FOR THE 
"GUARDIAN'S" ACCOUNT.  WE ALSO TAKE MUGABE'S DEPARTURE 
FOR JAKARTA AS A POSITIVE SIGN: THE PRESIDENT'S 
CONTINUED ENGAGEMENT WITH THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY IS 
BETTER NEWS FOR ZIMBABWE THAN HIS WITHDRAWAL INTO A 
FRIGHTENED AND PARANOID COCOON HERE IN HARARE.  END 
COMMENT. 
 
IRVING 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
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