US embassy cable - 04LILONGWE450

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 LILONGWE 000450 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, KDEM, ECON, PINR, MI, Elections, Political 
SUBJECT: ELECTIONS SPLINTER PARLIAMENT, EXPOSE UDF 
WEAKNESSES 
 
REF: A. LILONGWE 404 
 
     B. LILONGWE 438 AND PREVIOUS 
 
Summary 
------- 
1.  (SBU)  Low voter turnout, a splintering of parties in 
Parliament, an unprecedented number of independent 
parliamentary victors, and the failure of eleven former 
cabinet members to win in the elections on May 20 showed an 
electorate deeply dissatisfied with the status quo.  While 
the majority (of those who bothered to turn out) voted 
against the UDF, it retains the presidency.  Building a 
parliamentary majority is the UDF's immediate challenge, and 
how the party attempts to meet that challenge will tell much 
about President Mutharika's standing among party leaders and 
with the opposition.  End summary. 
 
Voter Turnout Sharply Down; Majority Votes Against Winner 
--------------------------------------------- ------------ 
2.  (U) Despite long lines early on polling day, only 54% of 
Malawi's 5.7 million registered voters turned out for 
presidential and parliamentary elections on May 20.  That 
stands in sharp contrast to the last presidential elections 
in 1999, when 92% of registered voters cast ballots. 
 
3.  (U) As reported in ref B, the ruling United Democratic 
Front's (UDF) Bingu wa Mutharika was declared the winner of 
presidential elections with 35% of the vote.  More than 
two-thirds of votes went to opposition candidates, but they 
were split four ways.  The closest candidate, John Tembo of 
the Malawi Congress Party (MCP) received 27% of the vote, and 
Mgwirizano Coalition/Republican Party candidate Gwanda 
Chakuamba came in a close third with 26%. 
 
Number of Parties in Parliament Jumps 
------------------------------------- 
4.  (SBU) The year-long splintering of political parties that 
had marked the run-up to the elections (ref A) was reflected 
in the polls, and the number of parties represented in the 
National Assembly has jumped from four to nine.  With 
victories in 59 constituencies, the MCP won an (at least 
initial) plurality in the 193-seat legislature.  It was 
followed by the UDF (49), the Republican Party (16), the 
National Democratic Alliance (8), the Alliance for Democracy 
(6), the Movement for Genuine Democratic Change (3), the 
People's Transformation Party (1), and the Congress for 
National Unity (1).  Thirty-eight independents also won 
seats, and six seats remain vacant awaiting by-elections. 
(Note: Parliamentary victories by President Mutharika and 
Vice President Chilumpha will result in two more 
by-elections, which will likely be re-won by the UDF.) 
 
5.  (SBU) The results somewhat exaggerate the ruling party's 
parliamentary losses, because many of the 38 independent 
candidates had originally wished to stand for the UDF. 
Despite their apparent popularity at the district level, many 
of these aspirants were pushed aside by favorites of the 
UDF's senior leadership and had to run as independents.  At 
least one has already announced that she will return to the 
UDF fold, and others are being heavily courted. 
 
6.  (SBU) At the party-level, the Alliance for Democracy 
(AFORD) suffered the worst losses, dropping from the 33 seats 
it won in 1999 to six.  AFORD President Chakufwa Chihana's 
2003 decision to ally himself with former President Muluzi 
and the UDF broke the former powerhouse of the northern 
region into a rump AFORD and the opposition Movement for 
Genuine Democratic Change (MGODE).  Voters apparently also 
deserted AFORD for the Republican Party (RP) and the People's 
Progressive Movement (PPM). 
 
7.  (U) The National Democratic Alliance, which broke away 
from the UDF in 2000 to become a "pressure group," solidified 
its standing in parliament with eight victories.  Four of 
those victories came in the southern district of Mulanje, 
home of NDA presidential candidate (and returning 
parliamentarian) Brown Mpinganjira.  Singer-turned-NDA 
candidate Billy Kaunda also won his seat. 
 
8.  (U) Other notable parliamentary victors included 
independent presidential candidate (and former vice president 
to Muluzi) Justin Malewezi, Mgwirizano Coalition vice 
presidential candidate Aleke Banda (a former UDF minister and 
founder who had defected from the party), and former 
President Muluzi's son Atupele. 
 
Former UDF/AFORD/NCD Cabinet Members Fall 
----------------------------------------- 
9.  (SBU) Eleven former cabinet members and several other 
UDF/AFORD alliance heavyweights fell during the elections. 
Former cabinet members who lost their parliamentary seats 
included Sam Mpasu (Minister of Commerce), Mary Banda 
(Minister for HIV/AIDS), Monjeza Maluza (Minister of Home 
Affairs), Phillip Bwanali (Minister of Sports, Youth, and 
Culture), Wallace Chiume (Minister of Tourism), Salim Bagus 
(Minister of State for Local Government), Heatherwick Ntaba 
(Minister of Mining and Energy), Chipimpha Mughogho (Minister 
without portfolio), James Chikwenga (Deputy Minister of 
Transport and Public Works), Sebastian Chikhadza (Deputy 
Minister of Health), and Khwauli Msiska (Deputy Minister of 
Finance).  Other notables who failed in their electoral bids 
were Enock Chihana (son of AFORD President Chihana and an 
official in Muluzi's Office of the President and Cabinet) and 
the UDF Secretary General Kennedy Makwangwala.  Friday Jumbe, 
who had been Minister of Finance but had not been a 
parliamentarian, won his constituency. 
 
10.  (U) Flamboyant former Minister of Water Dumbo Lemani, 
speaking in an impromptu press conference on May 23, called 
for all former UDF heavyweights who had lost their seats to 
resign from the party's National Executive Committee.  UDF 
spokesman Ken Lipenga later qualified Lemani's statements, 
however, saying they were not the views of the party. 
 
Comment 
------- 
11.  (SBU) Lemani, an inner-circle hack of former President 
Muluzi, was ingratiating himself to Mutharika with his call 
for UDF losers to resign, but his demand illuminates the 
difficulties the party faces.  The sharp drop in voter 
turnout, the splintering of Parliament, the unprecedented 
victories of closet UDF and other independent candidates, and 
the fall of many former cabinet members all point to a UDF 
leadership out of touch with the voters and an electorate 
deeply dissatisfied with the status quo.  Many voters feel 
that it is they who lost the elections.  Re-fashioning and 
re-orienting the UDF leadership to that reality will be a 
major challenge for Mutharika -- if the hand-picked successor 
to Muluzi is up to the challenge. 
 
12.  (SBU) Comment continued.  More immediately, the UDF is 
focused on trying to build a working majority in the National 
Assembly, and party operatives are already wooing independent 
parliamentarians.  Most of the independents will return to 
the UDF, but their renewed loyalty will be costly, as would 
an alliance of convenience with one of the opposition 
parties.  How the party's need to co-opt parliamentarians is 
balanced against Mutharika's stated goal of reducing the 
country's bloated cabinet will tell much about the future of 
the UDF, Mutharika's standing in the party, and the promise 
of the new government for the average voter. 
 
 
DOUGHERTY