US embassy cable - 01HARARE1727

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 001727 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER 
 
LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY 
 
PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS 
 
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER 
 
PASS USAID FOR AFR/SA - C. PALMA 
 
PASS USTR FOR ROSA WHITAKER 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  01727  01 OF 02  291521Z 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/29/11 
TAGS: PGOV, PINR, ZI 
SUBJECT: DEFENSE MINISTER MAHACHI DIES SUDDENLY 
LEAVING A THIRD CABINET VACANCY IN A MONTH 
 
 
CLASSIFIED BY CHARGE D'AFFAIRES EARL M. IRVING FOR 
REASONS 1.5 (B) AND (D). 
 
1.  (C) ADRESSEES WILL HAVE SEEN PRESS REPORTING OF THE 
DEATH MAY 26 OF MINISTER OF DEFENSE MOVEN MAHACHI. 
MAHACHI WAS IN THE BACK SEAT OF A HEAVILY LOADED LAND 
ROVER DISCOVERY THAT WAS HIT BROADSIDE BY A CAR WHOSE 
DRIVER WAS REPORTEDLY DRUNK.  THE IMPACT CAUSED THE 
MINISTER'S VEHICLE TO ROLL AND THE TALL MAHACHI, WHO WAS 
SITTING HIGHER THAN OTHER PASSENGERS, WAS KILLED 
INSTANTLY WHEN THE CAR'S ROOF COLLAPSED ON HIS HEAD, 
ACCORDINQ TO EGYPTIAN DCM KADRI ABDEL-MOTTALEB, WHO 
HEARD THE ACCOUNT OF ARMY COMMANDER CONSTANTINE 
CHIWENGA.  POLICE HAVE TAKEN PAINS TO SAY THAT THERE WAS 
NOTHING SINISTER ABOUT THE CRASH, A WAY OF DYINQ LONQ 
ASSOCIATED HERE WITH ZANU-PF POLITICAL ASSASSINATION. 
MAHACHI'S DEMISE IN A ROAD TRAFFIC ACCIDENT IS THE 
SECOND IN A MONTH (MINISTER OF YOUTH DEVELOPMENT, GENDER 
AND EMPLOYMENT CREATION BORDER GEZI WAS KILLED ON APRIL 
28) AND HAS LEFT PRESIDENT MUGABE REELING.  THE LATE 
DEFENSE MINISTER WAS ONE OF THE ZANU-PF "OLD GUARD," WHO 
FOUGHT SIDE-HY-SIDE WITH MUQABE IN MOZAMBIQUE AND WAS A 
MEMBER OF HIS DELEGATION AT THE LANCASTER HOUSE 
CONSTITUTIONAL CONFERENCE. 
 
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2.  (C) MAHACHI'S DEATH CREATED THE THIRD CABINET 
VACANCY IN A MONTH (MINISTER OF INDUSTRY AND 
INTERNATIONAL COMMERCE NKOSANA MOYO RESIGNED SUDDENLY IN 
EARLY MAY).  IN ZIMBABWE DEPUTY MINISTERS DO NOT 
AUTOMATICALLY SUBSTITUTE THEIR MINISTERS.  MUGABE, WHO 
IN THE PAST HAS BEEN KNOWN TO PUT OFF MAKING DECISIONS 
ON CABINET APPOINTMENTS UNTIL THE URGENCY OF EVENTS 
FORCES HIM TO TAKE ACTION, MUST BE FEELING THE PRESSURE 
TO PUT TOGETHER A NEW TEAM.  BOTH GEZI AND MAHACHI WERE 
ELECTED MEMBERS OF PARLIAMENT AND THEIR VACANT SEATS 
MUST BE FILLED WITH A BY-ELECTION.  FORMER INDUSTRY 
MINISTER MOYO -- WHO WAS NOT AN ELECTED MEMBER OF 
PARLIAMENT -- DID NOT HAVE A DEPUTY; THE MINISTRY IS 
BEING TEMPORARILY HEADED BY THE PERMANENT SECRETARY, 
STUART COMBERBACH.  COMBERBACH, ONE OF THE FEW SENIOR 
WHITES REMAINING IN GOVERNMENT, IS A COMPETENT 
TECHNOCRAT BUT, THOUGH CLOSE TO RETIRED ZANU-PF STALWART 
NATHAN SHAMUYARIRA, IS SEEN AS A POLITICAL LIGHTWEIGHT. 
 
3.  (C) AT THIS WRITING WE CAN ONLY SPECULATE ABOUT WHOM 
MUGABE WILL PLACE IN THESE VACANCIES.  LAST JUNE THE NEW 
CABINET HE ROLLED OUT APPEARED MEANT TO IMPRESS THE 
WORLD THAT ZIMBABWE WAS READY TO TACKLE ITS ECONOMIC AND 
POLITICAL PROBLEMS.  THIS YEAR WE WOULD WAGER THAT THE 
ZIMBABWEAN PRESIDENT WILL PLACE A PREMIUM ON LOYALTY FOR 
HIS APPOINTMENTS, AND WILL AIM TO SELECT THOSE WILLING 
TO DO EVERYTHING NECESSARY TO ENSURE HIS REELECTION IN 
2002.  WE DOUBT, FOR EXAMPLE, THAT DEPUTY MINISTER OF 
YOUTH DEVELOPMENT, GENDER AND EMPLOYMENT CREATION SHUVAI 
MAHOFA WILL BE PROMOTED TO MINISTER, AS SHE IS PERCEIVED 
TO HAVE GOTTEN THE PORTFOLIO FOR BEING A PROTEGEE OF 
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VICE PRESIDENT MUZENDA.  SOME OBSERVERS PREDICT THE 
MINISTRY MIGHT GO TO OLIVIA MUCHENA, CURRENTLY MINISTER 
OF STATE IN VICE PRESIDENT MSIKA'S OFFICE.  FILLING THE 
DEFENSE PORTFOLIO IS ONE THAT WILL REQUIRE CONSULTATION 
WITH THE CHIEFS OF THE ARMED FORCES AND ONE IN WHICH 
SPEAKER OF PARLIAMENT EMMERSON MNANGAGWA, WHOSE 
COMMERCIAL BIDDING IN THE CONGO MAHACHI DID, WILL BE 
INTIMATELY INVOLVED IN VETTING.  IN ANY CASE, BALANCING 
CROSS-CUTTING POLITICAL AND REGIONAL RIVALRIES, 
CURRENTLY TEARING ZANU-PF APART, WILL BE FOREMOST ON THE 
PRESIDENT'S MIND AS HE ASSEMBLES HIS NEW CABINET. 
 
4.  (C) MUGABE WILL BE HARD-PRESSED TO FIND SUPPORTERS 
AS UNQUESTIONINGLY ENTHUSIASTIC AS GEZI AND MAHACHI.  IT 
IS POSSIBLE THAT, GIVEN HIS PENCHANT FOR SPRINGING 
SURPRISES, THE ZIMBABWEAN CHIEF EXECUTIVE COULD PROMOTE 
A WAR VETERAN LEADER AS DEFENSE MINISTER IN A NOD TO 
THAT CONSTITUENCY'S CURRENT IMPORTANCE, ALTHOUGH 
NATIONAL LIBERATION WAR VETERANS' ASSOCIATION PRESIDENT 
CHENJERAI HUNZVI IS SERIOUSLY ILL AND NOT EXPECTED TO 
RECOVER HIS HEALTH.  THE SO-CALLED WAR VETERANS WHO 
COMPRISE ZANU-PF'S GANGSTER MILITIA, HOWEVER, WOULD NOT 
COMMAND THE RESPECT OF PROFESSIONAL MILITARY OFFICERS, 
WHO CONSIDER HUNZVI AND HIS ILK UNDISCIPLINED 
 
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                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ1951 
 
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ACTION AF-00 
 
INFO  LOG-00   NP-00    AID-00   ACQ-00   CIAE-00  DINT-00  DODE-00 
      DOTE-00  SRPP-00  DS-00    EB-00    EUR-00   FAAE-00  FBIE-00 
      VC-00    H-01     TEDE-00  INR-00   LAB-01   L-00     VCE-00 
      AC-01    NSAE-00  OMB-01   OPIC-01  PA-00    PM-00    PRS-00 
      ACE-00   P-00     SP-00    SSO-00   STR-00   TRSE-00  USIE-00 
      PMB-00   DSCC-00  DRL-02   G-00     NFAT-00  SAS-00     /007W 
                  ------------------F1C6FA  291521Z /38 
O 291522Z MAY 01 
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 8976 
INFO NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE 
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY 
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 HARARE 001727 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER 
 
LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY 
 
PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS 
 
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER 
 
PASS USAID FOR AFR/SA - C. PALMA 
 
PASS USTR FOR ROSA WHITAKER 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  01727  02 OF 02  291521Z 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/29/11 
TAGS: PGOV, PINR, ZI 
SUBJECT: DEFENSE MINISTER MAHACHI DIES SUDDENLY 
LEAVING A THIRD CABINET VACANCY IN A MONTH 
 
TROUBLEMAKERS.  REGARDLESS OF WHOM HE ULTIMATELY CHOOSES 
FOR THE THREE CABINET POSTS, WE HAVE NO DOUBT THAT 
MUGABE WILL IMPOSE ORDER FROM THE TOP AND PROLONG ZANU- 
PF'S PATHOLOGY.  AS THE PARTY HAS NEITHER CARROTS TO 
OFFER THE POPULATION NOR A TRACK RECORD ON WHICH TO RUN, 
WE PREDICT THAT THE ZIMBABWEAN PRESIDENT WILL UNLEASH 
UNPRECEDENTED LEVELS OF VIOLENCE ON THE POPULATION TO 
COMPENSATE FOR THE VULNERABILITY HE IS FEELING.  WITH 
MAHACHI AND GEZI NOW CONSIGNED TO THE ASH HEAP OF 
HISTORY, AND HUNZVI NOT FAR BEHIND, WE WILL HAVE TO 
WATCH CLOSELY TO SEE WHETHER MUGABE IS ABLE TO FIND 
OTHERS WILLING TO WAGE WAR AGAINST THEIR OWN PEOPLE WITH 
AS MUCH RELISH. 
 
IRVING 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
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