US embassy cable - 04ANKARA2878

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 002878 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/17/2014 
TAGS: PREL, PHUM, KDEM, TU 
SUBJECT: S/P REISS RAISES GME, IRAQ, IRAN WITH TURKISH MFA 
 
(U) Classified by Polcounselor John Kunstadter; reasons: 1.4 
(b,d). 
 
 
1.  (C) SUMMARY:  In May 7 meetings in Ankara, S/P Director 
Mitchell B. Reiss discussed USG policies toward 1) the 
transfer of sovereignty in Iraq; 2) the Greater Middle East 
Initiative (GMEI); 3) Iranian nuclear ambitions; and, 4) 
NATO,s Istanbul Summit.   Turkish MFA U/S Ugur Ziyal, Policy 
Planning Director Mehmet Akat, and Deputy U/S for Bilateral 
Affairs Ali Tuygan 1) noted the GOT's concerns about Kurdish 
independence in Northern Iraq; 2) welcomed continuing, close 
consultations with Turkey on GMEI; 3) expressed the GOT's 
concerns about regional fallout from a successful nuclear 
weapons development program in Iran; and, 4) asserted ongoing 
dialogue between the GOT and Arab leaders points to 
widespread distrust of NATO in Arab nations.  S/P Reiss noted 
strong USG support for Turkey's EU candidacy, a firm USG 
commitment to establishing a sovereign Iraqi government, and 
stressed USG actions will bring justice and transparency to 
the cases of abuse in Iraqi prisons. 
 
 
 
 
IRAQ 
---- 
 
 
2.  (C)  Ziyal, Akat and Tuygan asserted that Turkey's 
security depends heavily upon USG success in Iraq.  Success 
will directly correlate, they told Reiss, with Iraqi 
involvement in the process.  Reiss responded by noting strong 
USG commitment to a successful and timely transfer of 
authority.  Reiss noted, however, that the USG would not 
leave Iraq until the job is finished.  The ambassadors echoed 
hopes that governance in post-June 30 Iraq will be marked by 
a Brahimi plan that 1) adds legitimacy to the government by 
maximizing Iraqi self-determination; 2) emphasizes 
international participation; and, 3) maintains territorial 
integrity and discourages fracturing of ethnic groups. 
Allowing over-representation of Kurds in Iraqi governance or 
"too much independence" for Kurdish entities, especially in 
the north, creates the potential for problems they asserted. 
Particularly in the early stages of the new government, Ziyal 
noted, only Iraqis with leadership experience should govern. 
"This means supporting former leaders you know to be bad, 
instead of people you know will be worse." 
 
 
 
 
GME 
--- 
 
 
3. (C) Responding to S/P Reiss's question concerning how the 
West can look beyond upcoming summits to maintain momentum on 
Arab reform, Ziyal, Akat and Tuygan stressed that success 
depends entirely on Arab perceptions about the reform 
process.  Like the U.S., Turkey's foreign policy interests in 
the Greater Middle East, they noted, are tied to GMEI 
success.  Akat and Tuygan echoed Ziyal's assertion that the 
GOT's support for the GMEI will continue, provided 1) the 
objective is to strengthen existing reform efforts; 2) 
reforms are implemented gradually; and, 3) regimes in target 
countries are willing to participate.  Though Syria and Egypt 
recognize the need for reform and are slowly moving in that 
direction, Ziyal asserted, Washington should proceed 
cautiously because leaders currently view the GMEI as a 
threat to their regimes. 
 
 
4. (C) The U.S. must also be realistic, Ziyal cautioned, that 
GMEI, like NATO's Mediterranean Dialogue, might be held 
hostage by the Middle East Peace Process.  Try to take the 
Middle East perspective, he suggested, "when you're in 
Washington you don't see what's happening there."  To Arabs, 
Israeli leadership is not credible and to the U.S., 
Palestinian leadership is not credible. 
 
 
5. (C) In response to S/P Reiss's inquires about Turkish 
involvement in the GMEI, Ziyal asserted that Turkey is a good 
example for Arab nations, but he opined for reasons of 
religion, Arabs won't want to emulate Turkey.  Before 
Turkey's EU membership bid became a reality, Ziyal claimed, 
Arab neighbors shunned the GOT's secularist orientation. 
Ziyal said he believes Arab states now see Turkey as a window 
to Europe and motivation for some reforms.  Reiss highlighted 
US support for Turkey's EU candidacy and noted that the GOT 
is well-positioned to contribute to Middle East reform 
initiatives. 
 
 
 
 
IRAN 
---- 
 
 
6. (C) In response to S/P Reiss's questions about Iran's 
nuclear weapons development ambitions, Ziyal, Akat and 
Tuygan, asserted the GOT will 1) continue diplomatic pressure 
for transparency in Iran's nuclear affairs; and 2) maintain 
support for Iranian compliance with International Atomic 
Energy Agency (IAEA) inspections.  In the event Iran becomes 
a nuclear power, the GOT will 1) consider Iran's nuclear 
weapons a direct threat; and, 2) continue to rely on the 
nuclear umbrella of NATO. 
 
 
7. (C) According to Ziyal, Akat and Tuygan, the ongoing power 
struggle between conservative and liberal mullahs in Iran 
continues to erode the current regime's authority. Akat 
noted, however, that even if liberal reformists gain power, 
any new regime's position on further attempts to develop 
nuclear weapons would be unclear.  The GOT is sending a clear 
message to Iran that nuclear weapons in the region cannot be 
tolerated, though Ziyal said he believes, "Iran will get the 
bomb." 
 
 
NEWS CLIPS 
---------- 
 
 
8. (U) The Turkish Daily News published the following news 
clip on May 8, 2004, regarding S/P Director Reiss' visit to 
Ankara.  BEGIN TEXT:  U.S. Official in Ankara to discuss 
Iraq, GMEI.  Director of policy planning for the U.S. State 
Department Mitchell B. Reiss arrived yesterday in Ankara for 
talks at the Foreign Ministry.  Issues of Iraq and Greater 
Middle Eastern Initiative (GMEI) were taken up during Reiss' 
meeting with Foreign Ministry Undersecretary Ugur Ziyal on 
Friday, diplomatic sources told the Anatolia news agency. 
Sources said the U.S. official didn't convey any demands to 
Turkey and rather long-term prospects on these issues were 
discussed and characterized the meeting as, "general and 
philosophical." END TEXT. 
 
 
9. (U) S/P Director Mitchell B. Reiss cleared this cable. 
EDELMAN