US embassy cable - 04NASSAU1033

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NASSAU 001033 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/20/2014 
TAGS: PREL, BF, Bahamian Politics 
SUBJECT: LEADER OF THE OPPOSITION: AN UNDERDOG FIGHTS AN 
UPHILL BATTLE 
 
Classified By: CHARGE ROBERT M. WITAJEWSKI FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D). 
 
SUMMARY 
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1. (C)  Charge and Political Officer met with Senator Tommy 
Turnquest, Leader of the Opposition, on May 18, 2004, to 
discuss current events in The Bahamas.  Under the Ingraham 
administration from 1992-2002, Tommy Turnquest held the 
positions of Minister of Public Service, Immigration and 
Housing, Minister of Public Works, and Minister of Public 
Service and Labor.  Turnquest failed to hold his elected seat 
in the 2002 election, a humiliation given that he had been 
made party leader only two months earlier.  In The Bahamas, 
Senators are appointed by party vote based on a predetermined 
formula, which allowed Turnquest to regain an unelected 
presence in Parliament.  The possible bi-election for Sidney 
Stubb's seat in the Holy Cross constituency was discussed at 
length.  Mr. Turnquest claims not to be personally interested 
in running for this seat, and plans to leave that campaign to 
his deputy, Mr. Carl Bethel.  Tommy Turnquest questioned the 
Charge somewhat aggressively about the relationship between 
the United States and The Bahamas, as if he were looking for 
fodder with which to attack the current Christie government. 
 
 
BI-ELECTION FOR HOLY CROSS CONSTITUENCY 
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2. (C)  The leader of the opposition party, the Free National 
Movement (FNM), Turnquest told Charge that he does not plan 
to run in the possible summer by-election for the Holy Cross 
constituency, middle-class swing seat, located in Nassau. 
Controversy currently surrounds the present holder of the 
seat, Sidney Stubbs, regarding a recent court determination 
that he was in bankrupcy.  The Bahamian constitution requires 
bankrupt members of Parliament to resign within 120 days of 
such a finding.  A resignation, and a subsequent by-election, 
is viewed as an important referendum on the first two years 
of the ruling Progressive Liberal Party's performance in the 
run-up to the 2007 general election and an opportunity for 
the FNM to gauge its mid-cycle standing with the Bahamian 
electorate. 
 
3. (C)  Turnquest indicated that he has no plans to run for 
this seat, but fully supports "his close friend", Carl 
Bethel, to represent the FNM.  Turnquest estimated the FNM's 
chances of winning the seat at 50-50.  Claiming that the 
sitting government had tremendous resources -- public works 
projects and jobs -- to bring to bear in the campaign, 
Turnquest sniped that were the PLP government not so weak its 
odds of retaining the seat would be 70-30. 
 
4. (C)  The Holy Cross constituency contains approximately 
4,000 middle-class voters, including a large number of 
mid-level civil servants.  The election, predicted Turnquest, 
would be costly for both parties as each would pour resources 
into it, his FNM to embarrass the government, the PLP to 
avoid an embarrassing defeat.  Each of the voters in the 
constituency would be personally contacted and both parties 
would hold almost nightly (and expensive) rallies.  As many 
as 40-80 campaign workers would be brought in by each party 
for the campaign. 
 
5.  (C)  Turnquest estimated that the FNM would spend between 
$150,000 - $250,000 on the election, should it take place. 
When asked how he could possibly spend that much money on so 
few voters, Turnquest merely replied: "Bahamians like free 
paraphernalia". 
 
6.  (C)  Turnquest expressed some doubt that the election 
would even be called, pointing out that Stubbs could avoid 
resignation if his attorneys succeed in overturning the 
court's bankruptcy finding.  He also noted that there is a 
second vacancy in the St. Cecelia constituency that is firmly 
PLP and PM Christie may chose to call that by-election 
simultaneously.  Turnquest hinted that the odds of FNM 
victory in the PLP stronghold of St. Cecelia were so slim 
that his party might not even contest the election. 
Nevertheless, he insisted that even a 50-50 split in the two 
by-elections would be a FNM victory since both seats are 
currently held by the PLP. 
 
7. (C)  Asked about the issues likely to dominate the 
campaign, Turnquest acknowledged that the FNM had hired a 
marketing company to conduct polls during the general 
election -- although the results were closely held within the 
party leadership -- and that he had lately been commissioning 
"focus groups" to probe public opinion.  Turnquest said that 
he had personally attended quite a few of these "focus 
groups". 
 
TOMMY BORN WITH A SILVER SPOON IN HIS MOUTH 
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8. (C)  Born to the wealthy family of Sir Orville and Lady 
Edith Turnquest, Turnquest admitted that he comes from 
"privilege".  He subsequently married into a wealthy Bahamian 
family as well.  As a shareholder of Focal, a Freeport-based 
oil company, the Turnquests have a steady stream of income. 
Many Bahamians see this as a barrier to his political career. 
 Whereas his father was a self-made man, "Tommy" is seen by 
some Bahamians as a spoiled brat.  His three children are all 
attending/have attended exclusive prep schools in the United 
States and all are bound for similarly-expensive Ivy League 
universities. 
 
9. (C)  Turnquest maintains fierce loyalty to the FNM Party 
and queried repetitively the U.S. view of the performance of 
the Christie administration.  He ranted that Prime Minister 
Christie's slow decision-making has wasted valuable Bahamian 
resources, lost many contracts and put the Bahamian people at 
a disadvantage.  On the FNM website, Turnquest gives the PLP 
an "F" for effectiveness. 
 
 
COMMENT 
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10. (C) In a small country where the "Cheers" phrase 
"everyone knows your name" really is true, charisma and 
dynamism, both personally and publicly, is a prerequisite for 
a politician.  Bahamians expect their political leaders to 
"perform" when giving speeches.  As the son of the former 
Governor General Sir Orville, Tommy's opportunities to date 
have come because of his family lineage.  Privately Turnquest 
does not project the "gravitas" expected of a leader, nor 
publicly the rivalist oratorical skills expected of a 
politician. 
 
11. (C)  Previously, former (most Bahamians would argue true) 
party leader Hubert Ingraham told us that he expects Tommy to 
fight a Stubbs by-election to prove he has the guts and skill 
to win an election on his own as party leader.  Turnquest 
apparently didn't get the word, insisting to us just a week 
later that rather than engage in a messy internal dispute 
with his rival (and deputy) Carl Bethel, he, Turnquest, in 
the spirit of self-abnegation will allow Bethel to contest 
for the seat if a vacancy occurs.  Only in a scenario in 
which Bethel loses ignominiously does Turnquest possibly come 
out a winner.  A Bethel victory (or even a close defeat) 
immediately projects Bethel into a leading position and makes 
Turnquest's own position as party leader almost untenable. 
Even a Bethel defeat keeps Turnquest's future in doubt since 
many in the party may well conclude that none of the "next 
generation" leaders can win and only calling Hubert Ingraham 
recalled from retirement has the oomph to make Perry Christie 
a one-term prime minister. 
 
12. (C)  As expensive as Bahamian elections have become, they 
remain relatively unsophisticated.  Turnquest's belief that 
he can sit in on a "focus group" probing his own character 
and image without biasing the results reflects the relative 
navet with which Bahamian politicians approach survey 
research. 
WITAJEWSKI