US embassy cable - 04YEREVAN1194

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 YEREVAN 001194 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
DEPT FOR EUR/CACEN 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL, EAID, PGOV, PHUM, AM 
SUBJECT:  MCA: THE VIEW FROM YEREVAN 
 
 
1. (U) Sensitive But Unclassified.  Please treat 
accordingly. 
 
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PROGRESS IN RECENT YEARS 
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2. (SBU) Over the past 12 years since independence 
Armenia has moved from a state of open conflict with 
one of its neighbors to a stable, if occasionally 
uneasy, truce, has gone from a deep economic and 
humanitarian crisis to a fast-growing economy with 
the benefits of economic growth beginning to extend 
to the population at large and has seen the first 
flush of patriotic euphoria fade as the country 
works to build an independent and democratic 
society.  Over the course of your brief visit you 
will be meeting with government leaders and 
political activists from across the political 
spectrum, with representatives from the NGO 
community and with local businessmen.  While you are 
here, you will have an opportunity to appreciate the 
consultative approach Armenia pursued developing its 
Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper, see examples of 
the considerable progress that Armenia has made in 
recent years and understand the significant 
challenges still facing Armenia in its transition. 
 
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FLAWED ELECTIONS SET THE STAGE FOR UNREST 
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3. (SBU) While Armenia's flawed 2003 presidential 
elections have laid the groundwork for the current 
political discord, we believe that there is little 
doubt that President Kocharian did indeed win the 
election, if not by the official margin. 
Nonetheless, the opposition has focused on the 
flawed elections and still low (although improving) 
standard of living to rally moderate numbers of 
protesters to call for Kocharian's resignation. 
With no coherent program or charismatic figure, 
however, the opposition has been unable to transform 
a generalized sense of dissatisfaction with the 
status quo into any sort of "revolutionary fervor" - 
- and attendance at opposition rallies has been 
dropping steadily over the past five weeks.  The 
opposition has shown neither the desire nor the 
capacity to engage in serious political work to 
affect the course of the country and its future. 
Electoral reforms and Council of Europe-required 
constitutional reform are areas where an engaged 
opposition could have a significant impact.  For its 
part, the government has moderated its responses to 
the rallies from the excesses and nearly 200 
administrative detentions following the April 12 
rally and march.  It has not yet demonstrated, 
however, it is willing to back away from 
administrative measures to intimidate the 
opposition.  As a result, there is little prospect 
of any meaningful political dialogue or interaction. 
 
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PRESIDENT KOCHARIAN--FIRMLY IN CONTROL 
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4. (SBU) President Robert Kocharian is deeply 
engaged in the Millennium Challenge process.  An 
avid reader, he speaks fairly good English, although 
he will likely use an interpreter for at least part 
of your meeting with him.  You will find him a well- 
informed interlocutor with strong opinions. 
 
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PRIME MINISTER--CEREMONIAL HEAD OF THE BOARD 
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5. (SBU) You will be meeting with Prime Minister 
Andranik Margaryan, who the GOAM has identified as 
the likely ceremonial head of the board of directors 
charged with responsibility for oversight of any 
eventual MCA compact proposal.  Margaryan, the 
longest sitting Prime Minister in Armenia's post- 
Soviet history, played a major role in forming the 
current governing coalition in the Armenian 
parliament.  Margaryan points to recent strong 
economic growth as the result of reforms he 
sponsored since taking on responsibilities as Prime 
Minister in 2000.  He is generally respected by 
colleagues as a pleasant and effective leader who 
enjoys good relationships across party lines.  A 
slow but deliberate interlocutor, Margaryan 
considers himself a "simple man," whose background 
and views on life are representative of the Armenian 
population as a whole.  An engineer by background, 
53-year-old Margaryan was jailed by Soviet 
authorities for a short period in the mid-1970s. 
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NATIONAL ASSEMBLY--A WHIFF OF MODERATION 
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6. (SBU) During the recent political events the 
National Assembly, under the leadership of its 
Speaker, Artur Baghdasarian, has played a mediating 
role between the government and the opposition. 
Although the vast majority of the National Assembly 
and all of its leadership are members of the 
governing coalition, the speaker and his closest 
advisors have worked to carve out a modest space for 
political discourse.  The extent to which the 
governing coalition can bring the opposition into 
the political process will be crucial:  successful 
constitutional reform (a part of Armenia's on-going 
Council of Europe commitments) and electoral law 
reform will only be possible if politicians from 
across the political spectrum participate actively. 
ORDWAY