US embassy cable - 04ZAGREB932

C O N F I D E N T I A L  ZAGREB 000932 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/19/2012 
TAGS: PGOV, HR 
SUBJECT: CROATIA:  ON THE ROAD TO EU MEMBERSHIP 
 
Classified By: DCM Patrick Moon for reasons 1.5(b) and (d). 
 
Summary 
------- 
 
1. (C) Croatia is clearly headed toward being named a 
candidate for EU membership at the June 17-18 EU Summit. 
However, we expect that the EU leaders will postpone a 
decision on setting a date to begin accession negotiations 
for a range of reasons, not all related to Croatia.  Italy, 
Slovenia and the UK have Croatia-specific concerns (ICTY and 
maritime sovereignty issues) while other members are 
reportedly concerned about enlargement fatigue and linkages 
to Turkey's status.  End Summary. 
 
SAA Ratifications and the Avis 
------------------------------ 
 
2. (SBU) When the European Commission presented a positive 
avis on Croatia on April 20, Croatian political leaders from 
all parties congratulated themselves on successfully 
achieving a key goal on the path to EU membership.  The 
positive avis was in question up until only a few days 
earlier when ICTY Chief Prosecutor Carla del Ponte sent a 
glowing report to the EC citing Croatia,s full cooperation 
with the Tribunal.  As as result, the Netherlands has now 
sent forward its ratification, and the UK has started the 
process with every prospect, according the British DCM, of 
ratifying the document before the EU Council meets June 
17-18.  According to our contacts here, the UK has not 
changed its views on Gotovina and holds the GOC responsible 
for the indictee,s transfer to the ICTY. 
 
Pre-Accession Negotiations 
-------------------------- 
 
3. (C) Our colleagues from EU embassies are telling us that 
although the EU Council will certainly endorse the positive 
avis and accept Croatia as a candidate for membership, it 
will be in no hurry to set a date to begin negotiations.  We 
are told to expect the Council, for various reasons, to put 
off a decision on setting a date to begin accession 
negotiations until at least the next summit in December and 
possibly until 2005.  While the UK would argue that 
negotiations should not begin before Gotovina is in The 
Hague, other members are focused on issues such as Turkey, 
maritime sovereignty in the Adriatic, and enlargement 
fatigue. 
 
4. (C) It now looks as though only Italy will not have 
ratified Croatia,s SAA by the time of the June Summit. 
According to the Italian DCM, Rome is reluctant because of 
lack of progress in resolving issues related to Croatia,s 
unilateral declaration last year of an exclusive ecological 
and fisheries zone in the Adriatic.  The Italian DCM and 
Slovenian Ambassador told us that Croatia has been inflexible 
and in no mood for compromise in three rounds of trilateral 
talks on the zone.  The Italian DCM said this was 
disappointing since it was clear that Croatia would 
eventually have to accept changes on use of the Adriatic as 
part of the EU accession process.  The Slovenian Ambassador 
criticized Croatia for its failure to engage on the basis of 
methods common among EU members for resolving disputes. 
 
5. (C) The Italian DCM specifically rejected any linkage 
between Rome,s ratification of the SAA (or related issues) 
and the still unresolved bilateral issues on property 
restitution to Italians who left Croatia at the end of WWII. 
 Despite several rounds of negotiations, Croatia still had 
not engaged seriously, and Rome was frustrated with Croatia's 
failure to address Italian concerns.  While the DCM asserted 
that this issue would be treated outside the EU accession 
process, most observers and the Croatian press believe Italy 
is indeed linking progress on the property restitution issue 
to Italian support in the EU. 
 
6. (C) Given the GOC,s near total focus on EU membership, we 
are surprised to learn that the MFA has kept the Italians and 
Slovenians at arms length on the maritime issues since either 
Italy or Slovenia could block further progress in Brussels. 
While the relative newness of the Sanader government may be 
to blame for the lack of progress on these issues, we also 
suspect that the HDZ,s nationalistic proclivities may be a 
more likely explanation for the lack of progress. 
 
7. (C) Unfortunately, lack of progress in Italy,s 
discussions with Croatia on the property restitution issues 
may be affecting efforts by the U.S., Austria and others to 
negotiate bilateral agreements with the GOC to provide the 
basis for former Croatians to seek restitution for property 
seized since WWII.  The GOC may be concerned that Italy might 
use any deal Croatia signs with another country against 
Zagreb to press for compromises on the more complicated and 
politically sensitive Italian claims. 
 
8. (C) The Political Counselor at the EC Mission underscored 
with us that the Commission,s green light represents just 
one small step in what promises to be a long drawn out 
process.  He dismissed any concern that a positive stance on 
the avis now would serve to reduce any leverage Brussels has 
over Croatia, particularly with respect to delivering 
Gotovina to The Hague.  In fact, the EC,s leverage &goes 
up,8 he said.  Brussels can apply the brakes anytime it 
deems appropriate.  It would be unfair, he added, to insist 
that all &outstanding issues8 with Croatia had to be 
resolved before offering a positive judgment on the avis. 
Croatia has been a success story in the region, and not to 
acknowledge this success would have been the wrong message 
for the other countries and not have served the reform 
process. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
9. (C) Sanader (and virtually all other political figures) 
will be very pleased with the June EU summit decision on 
Croatia,s candidacy as it definitively opens the door to 
membership and, importantly, to pre-accession funds from 
Brussels.  Possibly anticipating an EU decision to postpone a 
decision on beginning pre-accession negotiations, Sanader has 
been downplaying the importance of attaining membership as 
soon as possible (2007 is the target most often cited 
publicly).  This expectation-lowering approach is a prudent 
exercise for the savvy Sanader.  The accession process will 
be fraught with difficult political decisions for the GOC and 
unpopular changes to domestic policies.  As many of the other 
new EU members discovered during the accession process, you 
have to be careful what you wish for. 
FRANK 
 
 
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